# Knight Transportation (KNX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KNX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:40.975Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $65.28 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $25.62 per share, central $30.46 per share, high $35.42 per share. Buy at or below the central value $30.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:40.975Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.54×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.0%

- FY2017: 7.1%

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 9.3%

- FY2020: 11.0%

- FY2021: 15.9%

- FY2022: 17.5%

- FY2023: 5.0%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 3.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.55×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 5.32×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.1% vs 3.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.42 to 0.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquisition spending exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: $5.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -8.0%

- Per-share value change: -$0.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.16

- FY2017: $4.34

- FY2018: $2.36

- FY2019: $1.80

- FY2020: $2.40

- FY2021: $4.45

- FY2022: $4.73

- FY2023: $1.34

- FY2024: $0.73

- FY2025: $0.41

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.42×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 19.21×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.83×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -13.9%

- FY2017: 2.2%

- FY2018: -5.8%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -5.9%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -6.0%

- FY2023: -7.1%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -10.0%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.7% a year for ten years · "Knight-Swift Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Truckload Margin Gains" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:01.785Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-23: Knight-Swift blames trade uncertainty for reduced Q2 outlook, no Q3 guide ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/knight-swift-blames-trade-uncertainty-212846523.html))

- 2025-07-24: Knight-Swift’s belt tightening offsets soft demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/knight-swift-belt-tightening-offsets-002558176.html))

- 2025-10-23: KNX Q3 Deep Dive: Margin Pressures Persist Amid Stable Revenue, Regulatory Shifts Loom ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/knx-q3-deep-dive-margin-180602870.html))

- 2026-01-21: Knight-Swift Transportation Posts Softer Revenue On Lower Truckload Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0af612ed-e2ee-3d55-b55e-e5639dd00939/knight-swift-transportation.html))

- 2026-04-22: Knight-Swift aims for double-digit rate hike in tight market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/knight-swift-aims-double-digit-214018761.html))

- 2026-06-01: Knight-Swift to Benefit From Tighter Trucking Supply, Stronger Pricing, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/knight-swift-benefit-tighter-trucking-160310892.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $2.4B 

- FY2018: $5.3B 

- FY2019: $4.8B 

- FY2020: $4.7B 

- FY2021: $6.0B 

- FY2022: $7.4B 

- FY2023: $7.1B 

- FY2024: $7.4B 

- FY2025: $7.5B 

- FY2026: $7.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 28.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 30.0% 

- FY2017: 25.7% 

- FY2018: 25.6% 

- FY2019: 26.6% 

- FY2020: 31.2% 

- FY2021: 32.8% 

- FY2022: 32.5% 

- FY2023: 27.5% 

- FY2024: 24.3% 

- FY2025: 28.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 7.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 7469689000; grossProfit 2113961000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KNX.US: Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services. The LTL segment provides regional direct service and serves its customers' national transportation needs by utilizing key partner carriers for coverage areas outside of its network. The Logistics segment provides brokerage and other freight management services utilizing third-party transportation providers and equipment. The Intermodal segment offers transportation services, including arranging the movement of customers' freight through third-party intermodal rail services on its trailing equipment; and drayage services to transport loads between the railheads and customer locations. The company also provides repair and maintenance shop services, equipment leasing, warranty services, and insurance; and trailer parts manufacturing, warehousing, and certain driving academy activities. It serves retail, food and beverage, consumer and paper products, transportation and logistics, housing and building, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.3% to 28.3% during 2023–25; it earns 8.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06042677574347499],[2017,0.07056406230655816],[2018,0.14057618753249226],[2019,0.09343826755904827],[2020,0.10964098900890819],[2021,0.15940506314072234],[2022,0.17529575887807347],[2023,0.049514990985213427],[2024,0.03385584314254562],[2025,0.03012652986249151]]; median 0.08200116493280321. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 154596000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 55427000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 180086000; upkeep 207105000; cash acquisitions 91960000; owner earnings 484292000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.561739611639259.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 325908000; upkeep 430089000; cash acquisitions 101693000; owner earnings 419264000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.019884845825065.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 521067000; cash acquisitions 46811000; owner earnings 395605000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.11832762477723992.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 534096000; cash acquisitions 1496208000; owner earnings 787187000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.9007021203348125.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 140739000; upkeep 659824000; cash acquisitions 31291000; owner earnings 771325000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.22303179593556544.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 26348000; upkeep 792802000; cash acquisitions 185491000; owner earnings 117626000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.800953870742863.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 503419000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 350580000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,19597000],[2017,25454000],[2018,42770000],[2019,41425000],[2020,54620000],[2021,63535000],[2022,78304000],[2023,91149000],[2024,104153000],[2025,117435000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KNX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.918 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15493071472809156. Price 65.28; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7049069594240772 → FY2025 2.155942709902774. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $29.25 per share

- 2016-11: $35.00 per share

- 2016-12: $33.05 per share

- 2017-01: $33.40 per share

- 2017-02: $32.70 per share

- 2017-03: $31.35 per share

- 2017-04: $34.30 per share

- 2017-05: $33.35 per share

- 2017-06: $37.05 per share

- 2017-07: $35.65 per share

- 2017-08: $39.05 per share

- 2017-09: $41.55 per share

- 2017-10: $41.45 per share

- 2017-11: $42.68 per share

- 2017-12: $43.72 per share

- 2018-01: $49.79 per share

- 2018-02: $48.16 per share

- 2018-03: $46.01 per share

- 2018-04: $39.01 per share

- 2018-05: $40.68 per share

- 2018-06: $38.21 per share

- 2018-07: $32.55 per share

- 2018-08: $34.13 per share

- 2018-09: $34.48 per share

- 2018-10: $32.00 per share

- 2018-11: $34.66 per share

- 2018-12: $25.07 per share

- 2019-01: $31.75 per share

- 2019-02: $33.63 per share

- 2019-03: $32.68 per share

- 2019-04: $33.35 per share

- 2019-05: $27.64 per share

- 2019-06: $32.84 per share

- 2019-07: $35.84 per share

- 2019-08: $34.14 per share

- 2019-09: $36.30 per share

- 2019-10: $36.46 per share

- 2019-11: $36.99 per share

- 2019-12: $35.84 per share

- 2020-01: $37.08 per share

- 2020-02: $31.94 per share

- 2020-03: $32.80 per share

- 2020-04: $37.18 per share

- 2020-05: $41.61 per share

- 2020-06: $41.71 per share

- 2020-07: $43.49 per share

- 2020-08: $45.46 per share

- 2020-09: $40.70 per share

- 2020-10: $37.99 per share

- 2020-11: $41.29 per share

- 2020-12: $41.82 per share

- 2021-01: $40.00 per share

- 2021-02: $43.20 per share

- 2021-03: $48.09 per share

- 2021-04: $47.12 per share

- 2021-05: $47.73 per share

- 2021-06: $45.46 per share

- 2021-07: $49.69 per share

- 2021-08: $51.93 per share

- 2021-09: $51.15 per share

- 2021-10: $56.69 per share

- 2021-11: $57.25 per share

- 2021-12: $60.94 per share

- 2022-01: $56.58 per share

- 2022-02: $54.48 per share

- 2022-03: $50.46 per share

- 2022-04: $47.89 per share

- 2022-05: $48.64 per share

- 2022-06: $46.29 per share

- 2022-07: $54.95 per share

- 2022-08: $50.51 per share

- 2022-09: $48.93 per share

- 2022-10: $48.03 per share

- 2022-11: $55.43 per share

- 2022-12: $52.41 per share

- 2023-01: $59.10 per share

- 2023-02: $56.84 per share

- 2023-03: $56.58 per share

- 2023-04: $56.32 per share

- 2023-05: $54.99 per share

- 2023-06: $55.56 per share

- 2023-07: $60.75 per share

- 2023-08: $54.82 per share

- 2023-09: $50.15 per share

- 2023-10: $48.89 per share

- 2023-11: $53.78 per share

- 2023-12: $57.65 per share

- 2024-01: $57.38 per share

- 2024-02: $56.34 per share

- 2024-03: $55.02 per share

- 2024-04: $46.23 per share

- 2024-05: $48.25 per share

- 2024-06: $49.92 per share

- 2024-07: $54.43 per share

- 2024-08: $52.38 per share

- 2024-09: $53.95 per share

- 2024-10: $52.08 per share

- 2024-11: $59.36 per share

- 2024-12: $53.04 per share

- 2025-01: $57.09 per share

- 2025-02: $50.44 per share

- 2025-03: $43.49 per share

- 2025-04: $39.17 per share

- 2025-05: $44.32 per share

- 2025-06: $44.23 per share

- 2025-07: $42.50 per share

- 2025-08: $43.90 per share

- 2025-09: $39.51 per share

- 2025-10: $45.12 per share

- 2025-11: $45.80 per share

- 2025-12: $52.28 per share

- 2026-01: $55.10 per share

- 2026-02: $62.92 per share

- 2026-03: $57.58 per share

- 2026-04: $64.90 per share

- 2026-05: $75.63 per share

- 2026-06: $77.87 per share

- 2026-07: $69.53 per share

- 2026-08: $68.51 per share

- 2026-09: $63.59 per share

- 2026-10: $65.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $5.63 per share, central $6.41 per share, high $7.44 per share

- FY2017: low $14.78 per share, central $19.47 per share, high $22.61 per share

- FY2018: low $20.46 per share, central $29.13 per share, high $34.18 per share

- FY2019: low $19.62 per share, central $27.75 per share, high $32.48 per share

- FY2020: low $29.88 per share, central $42.41 per share, high $49.70 per share

- FY2021: low $42.72 per share, central $60.42 per share, high $70.73 per share

- FY2022: low $53.85 per share, central $76.30 per share, high $89.37 per share

- FY2023: low $49.52 per share, central $65.39 per share, high $76.22 per share

- FY2024: low $46.39 per share, central $56.15 per share, high $65.22 per share

- FY2025: low $25.54 per share, central $30.22 per share, high $35.02 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492691/000149269126000016/knx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.