# Kroger (KR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:42.519Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $62.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $46.90 per share, central $53.37 per share, high $61.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value $53.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:42.519Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: 0.01×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 14.4%

- FY2019: 11.0%

- FY2020: 6.8%

- FY2021: 8.8%

- FY2022: 11.8%

- FY2023: 12.6%

- FY2024: 9.5%

- FY2025: 12.1%

- FY2026: 6.9%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 6.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.49×

- FY2023: 1.22×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.94×

- FY2026: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.0% vs 9.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.08 to 2.98 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Market cap gain: $8.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $13B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.6%

- Per-share value change: $0.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.98

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.20

- Average buyback yield: 5.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $727M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $21B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.06

- FY2018: $2.11

- FY2019: $3.80

- FY2020: $2.06

- FY2021: $3.31

- FY2022: $2.19

- FY2023: $3.09

- FY2024: $2.98

- FY2025: $3.70

- FY2026: $1.55

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -12.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 7.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.3%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: -2.8%

- FY2020: -6.6%

- FY2021: -8.7%

- FY2022: -9.2%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -9.2%

- FY2025: -5.9%

- FY2026: -12.4%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years · "Management lowered its identical-sales outlook but kept profit targets intact." (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +1.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:02.153Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-26: Kroger (NYSE:KR) Announces Dividend Increase to US$1.40 Per Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-nyse-kr-announces-dividend-174034562.html))

- 2025-12-09: Kroger (KR) Valuation Check After Net Loss, Lower Sales Outlook and Cost-Cutting Moves ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-kr-valuation-check-net-130747545.html))

- 2026-03-05: Kroger Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, E-Commerce Sales Rise 20% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-q4-earnings-top-estimates-153700713.html))

- 2026-05-29: Kroger forced to make costly store fix after federal lawsuit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/kroger-forced-costly-store-fix-164700540.html))

- 2026-06-02: Kroger Faces Clean Air Settlement And Recall Test For Long Term Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kroger-faces-clean-air-settlement-111619614.html))

- 2026-07-02: Kroger (KR) Is Buying Giant Eagle For $1.65 Billion To Expand Its Reach ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kroger-kr-buying-giant-eagle-061109431.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +1.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2018: $123B 

- FY2019: $122B 

- FY2020: $122B 

- FY2021: $132B 

- FY2022: $138B 

- FY2023: $148B 

- FY2024: $150B 

- FY2025: $147B 

- FY2026: $148B 

- FY2027: $149B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 23.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2018: 22.3% 

- FY2019: 22.0% 

- FY2020: 22.1% 

- FY2021: 23.3% 

- FY2022: 22.0% 

- FY2023: 21.4% 

- FY2024: 22.2% 

- FY2025: 22.7% 

- FY2026: 23.3% 

- FY2027: 23.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in grocery stores; annual sales are USD 147.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: revenue 147642000000; grossProfit 34402000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KR.US: The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and its multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys. The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and its price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through its fuel centers. The company sells its products through its stores, fuel centers, and online platforms. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.2% to 23.3% during 2024–26; it earns 10.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 23.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.14441311439155194],[2019,0.10981633646801355],[2020,0.06837848199139938],[2021,0.08784183722306764],[2022,0.11810817626866675],[2023,0.12590876165915088],[2024,0.09529340364025404],[2025,0.12105095079439669],[2026,0.06882307757958522],[2027,0.065956874525252]]; median 0.1025548700541338. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 22% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.23321861462059804],[2022,0.22009892086330934],[2023,0.21434256498806134]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2.7 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 937711623.2276173; upkeep 2761288376.7723827; owner earnings 1553711623.2276173. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.603530030418163.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 373000000; upkeep 2436000000; owner earnings 1907000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19559517566858942.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2967000000; owner earnings 2608000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 3128000000; owner earnings 1820000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2865000000; owner earnings 3093000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2614000000; owner earnings 2470000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3078000000; owner earnings 2745000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 154000000; upkeep 3750000000; owner earnings 2164000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0711645101663586.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4017000000; owner earnings 2497000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 3855000000; owner earnings 1081000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,429000000],[2018,443000000],[2019,437000000],[2020,486000000],[2021,534000000],[2022,589000000],[2023,682000000],[2024,796000000],[2025,883000000],[2026,885000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: cash repurchases 2699000000 USD.

### What could break it

"EMPLOYEE MATTERS" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-31); EMPLOYEE MATTERS

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.028767446435425614. Price 62.71; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.0259450658701352 → FY2026 1.650381679389313. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $30.98 per share

- 2016-11: $32.30 per share

- 2016-12: $34.51 per share

- 2017-01: $33.96 per share

- 2017-02: $31.80 per share

- 2017-03: $29.49 per share

- 2017-04: $29.65 per share

- 2017-05: $29.78 per share

- 2017-06: $23.32 per share

- 2017-07: $24.52 per share

- 2017-08: $21.87 per share

- 2017-09: $20.06 per share

- 2017-10: $20.70 per share

- 2017-11: $25.86 per share

- 2017-12: $27.45 per share

- 2018-01: $30.36 per share

- 2018-02: $27.12 per share

- 2018-03: $23.94 per share

- 2018-04: $25.19 per share

- 2018-05: $24.33 per share

- 2018-06: $28.45 per share

- 2018-07: $29.00 per share

- 2018-08: $31.50 per share

- 2018-09: $29.11 per share

- 2018-10: $29.76 per share

- 2018-11: $29.66 per share

- 2018-12: $27.50 per share

- 2019-01: $28.33 per share

- 2019-02: $29.33 per share

- 2019-03: $24.60 per share

- 2019-04: $25.78 per share

- 2019-05: $22.81 per share

- 2019-06: $21.71 per share

- 2019-07: $21.16 per share

- 2019-08: $23.68 per share

- 2019-09: $25.78 per share

- 2019-10: $24.64 per share

- 2019-11: $27.34 per share

- 2019-12: $28.99 per share

- 2020-01: $26.86 per share

- 2020-02: $28.13 per share

- 2020-03: $30.12 per share

- 2020-04: $31.61 per share

- 2020-05: $32.62 per share

- 2020-06: $33.85 per share

- 2020-07: $34.79 per share

- 2020-08: $35.68 per share

- 2020-09: $33.91 per share

- 2020-10: $32.21 per share

- 2020-11: $33.00 per share

- 2020-12: $31.76 per share

- 2021-01: $34.50 per share

- 2021-02: $32.21 per share

- 2021-03: $35.99 per share

- 2021-04: $36.54 per share

- 2021-05: $36.98 per share

- 2021-06: $38.31 per share

- 2021-07: $40.70 per share

- 2021-08: $46.03 per share

- 2021-09: $40.43 per share

- 2021-10: $40.02 per share

- 2021-11: $41.53 per share

- 2021-12: $45.26 per share

- 2022-01: $43.59 per share

- 2022-02: $46.80 per share

- 2022-03: $57.37 per share

- 2022-04: $53.96 per share

- 2022-05: $52.97 per share

- 2022-06: $47.33 per share

- 2022-07: $46.44 per share

- 2022-08: $47.94 per share

- 2022-09: $43.75 per share

- 2022-10: $47.29 per share

- 2022-11: $49.19 per share

- 2022-12: $44.58 per share

- 2023-01: $44.63 per share

- 2023-02: $43.14 per share

- 2023-03: $49.37 per share

- 2023-04: $48.63 per share

- 2023-05: $45.33 per share

- 2023-06: $47.00 per share

- 2023-07: $48.64 per share

- 2023-08: $46.39 per share

- 2023-09: $44.75 per share

- 2023-10: $45.37 per share

- 2023-11: $44.27 per share

- 2023-12: $45.71 per share

- 2024-01: $46.14 per share

- 2024-02: $49.61 per share

- 2024-03: $57.13 per share

- 2024-04: $55.38 per share

- 2024-05: $52.37 per share

- 2024-06: $49.93 per share

- 2024-07: $54.50 per share

- 2024-08: $53.21 per share

- 2024-09: $57.30 per share

- 2024-10: $55.77 per share

- 2024-11: $61.08 per share

- 2024-12: $61.15 per share

- 2025-01: $61.64 per share

- 2025-02: $64.82 per share

- 2025-03: $67.69 per share

- 2025-04: $72.21 per share

- 2025-05: $68.23 per share

- 2025-06: $71.73 per share

- 2025-07: $70.10 per share

- 2025-08: $67.84 per share

- 2025-09: $67.41 per share

- 2025-10: $63.63 per share

- 2025-11: $67.28 per share

- 2025-12: $62.48 per share

- 2026-01: $62.85 per share

- 2026-02: $68.24 per share

- 2026-03: $72.36 per share

- 2026-04: $68.07 per share

- 2026-05: $62.15 per share

- 2026-06: $55.53 per share

- 2026-07: $57.74 per share

- 2026-08: $57.54 per share

- 2026-09: $58.62 per share

- 2026-10: $60.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $20.44 per share, central $27.01 per share, high $31.61 per share

- FY2018: low $23.72 per share, central $32.13 per share, high $37.65 per share

- FY2019: low $26.87 per share, central $32.74 per share, high $38.16 per share

- FY2020: low $28.55 per share, central $37.79 per share, high $44.23 per share

- FY2021: low $31.81 per share, central $40.07 per share, high $46.75 per share

- FY2022: low $44.73 per share, central $63.81 per share, high $74.93 per share

- FY2023: low $48.62 per share, central $65.68 per share, high $76.95 per share

- FY2024: low $40.65 per share, central $46.24 per share, high $53.68 per share

- FY2025: low $43.24 per share, central $48.76 per share, high $56.10 per share

- FY2026: low $44.30 per share, central $50.06 per share, high $57.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:27.001Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56873/000110465926037723/kr-20260131x10k.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.