# Lear (LEA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LEA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:47.176Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $121.49 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $119.07 per share, central $133.99 per share, high $153.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value $133.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:47.176Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.8% at the stated quote. About 10.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2022 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.35

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2022

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 8.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 45.2%

- FY2017: 47.3%

- FY2018: 42.4%

- FY2019: 25.3%

- FY2020: 9.9%

- FY2021: 11.7%

- FY2022: 11.0%

- FY2023: 12.9%

- FY2024: 12.4%

- FY2025: 12.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -11.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.12×

- FY2025: 1.10×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 45.2% vs 12.6%

- Per-share earnings: 13.33 to 8.97 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Market cap gain: -$3.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -4.8%

- Per-share value change: -$4.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $13.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.97

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.85

- Average buyback yield: 4.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 45.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $13.33

- FY2017: $18.59

- FY2018: $17.22

- FY2019: $12.75

- FY2020: $2.62

- FY2021: $6.19

- FY2022: $5.47

- FY2023: $9.68

- FY2024: $8.97

- FY2025: $8.15

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.37×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.5%

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -3.9%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -2.2%

- FY2022: -5.0%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

- [Edgar Wachenheim](https://gigainvestors.com/GA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Dec 2021 · "Lear (LEA): $198 Million One-Off Loss Undermines Margin, Sparks Debate Over Earnings Quality" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:03.517Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-01: Lear (LEA): $198 Million One-Off Loss Undermines Margin, Sparks Debate Over Earnings Quality ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lear-lea-198-million-one-081705786.html))

- 2026-05-04: Lear Q1 Earnings Surpass Expectations on Increased Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lear-q1-earnings-surpass-expectations-155300290.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $20B 

- FY2018: $21B 

- FY2019: $20B 

- FY2020: $17B 

- FY2021: $19B 

- FY2022: $21B 

- FY2023: $23B 

- FY2024: $23B 

- FY2025: $23B 

- FY2026: $24B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 11.8% 

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 11.6% 

- FY2019: 9.8% 

- FY2020: 7.7% 

- FY2021: 7.8% 

- FY2022: 7.5% 

- FY2023: 7.4% 

- FY2024: 7.9% 

- FY2025: 8.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 23.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 23258300000; grossProfit 1914700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LEA.US: Lear Corporation designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, assembles, and supplies automotive seating, and electrical distribution systems and related components for automotive original equipment manufacturers in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. Its Seating segment offers seat systems, keyseat components, seat trim covers, and seat mechanisms; and thermal comfort systems, such as seat heating, ventilation, active cooling, pneumatic lumbar and massage products, seat cushioning, and headrests, as well as surface materials, including leather and fabric for light trucks, compact cars, pick-up trucks, and sport utility vehicles. The company's E-Systems segment provides electrical distribution and connection systems that route electrical signals and networks; and manage electrical power within the vehicle for various powertrains. This segment's products comprise wire harnesses, terminals and connectors, engineered components, and junction boxes; electronic system products, including body domain control modules, and high voltage switching and power control systems. It also offers software and connected services, as well as cybersecurity software. The company offers its products and services under the GUILFORD, EAGLE OTTAWA, THAGORA, IGB AUTOMOTIVE, COMFORTFLEX BY LEARTM, LEAR, CONFIGURE+, FLEXAIR, INTU, RENEWKNIT, SOYFOAM, ProTec, and TeXstyle brands. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Southfield, Michigan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.4% to 8.2% during 2023–25; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 7.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4519137660984155],[2017,0.47255041864731606],[2018,0.4236867138594688],[2019,0.2530018749856906],[2020,0.09891206714658672],[2021,0.11670799155305915],[2022,0.11036967250966107],[2023,0.12919658714354806],[2024,0.12374515224815393],[2025,0.1260589955492196]]; median 0.12762779134638383. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 8% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.07759090696672154],[2022,0.07536244378349642],[2023,0.074404432132964]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 325.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 35106475.21686417; upkeep 493193524.78313583; cash acquisitions 155900000; owner earnings 860106475.2168641. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.222073058069589.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 166800000; upkeep 427700000; cash acquisitions 292400000; owner earnings 1287900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.35654942153893937.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 74134020.59787488; upkeep 602865979.4021251; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1020934020.5978749. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07261391931523728.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 603900000; cash acquisitions 321700000; owner earnings 695500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4625449317038102.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 452300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 246100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 11200000; upkeep 573900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 373900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.029954533297673176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 61700000; upkeep 576500000; cash acquisitions 188300000; owner earnings 327700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7628928898382668.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 22100000; upkeep 604400000; cash acquisitions 174500000; owner earnings 572500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3434061135371179.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 558700000; cash acquisitions 800000; owner earnings 568600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0014069644741470278.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 561600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 479300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,88800000],[2017,137700000],[2018,186300000],[2019,186300000],[2020,67300000],[2021,106700000],[2022,185500000],[2023,181900000],[2024,173700000],[2025,164800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 325200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LEA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.488 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.019018748713508338. Price 121.49; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 8.383798541259388 → FY2025 8.943703297000216. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $122.78 per share

- 2016-11: $129.51 per share

- 2016-12: $132.37 per share

- 2017-01: $142.09 per share

- 2017-02: $141.99 per share

- 2017-03: $141.58 per share

- 2017-04: $142.66 per share

- 2017-05: $149.04 per share

- 2017-06: $142.08 per share

- 2017-07: $148.19 per share

- 2017-08: $149.54 per share

- 2017-09: $173.08 per share

- 2017-10: $175.59 per share

- 2017-11: $180.89 per share

- 2017-12: $176.66 per share

- 2018-01: $193.14 per share

- 2018-02: $186.57 per share

- 2018-03: $186.09 per share

- 2018-04: $186.97 per share

- 2018-05: $198.00 per share

- 2018-06: $185.81 per share

- 2018-07: $180.13 per share

- 2018-08: $162.20 per share

- 2018-09: $145.00 per share

- 2018-10: $132.90 per share

- 2018-11: $136.25 per share

- 2018-12: $122.86 per share

- 2019-01: $153.93 per share

- 2019-02: $152.07 per share

- 2019-03: $135.71 per share

- 2019-04: $143.00 per share

- 2019-05: $119.03 per share

- 2019-06: $139.27 per share

- 2019-07: $126.78 per share

- 2019-08: $112.26 per share

- 2019-09: $117.90 per share

- 2019-10: $117.77 per share

- 2019-11: $120.31 per share

- 2019-12: $137.20 per share

- 2020-01: $123.18 per share

- 2020-02: $111.20 per share

- 2020-03: $81.25 per share

- 2020-04: $97.65 per share

- 2020-05: $106.05 per share

- 2020-06: $109.02 per share

- 2020-07: $110.38 per share

- 2020-08: $113.93 per share

- 2020-09: $109.05 per share

- 2020-10: $120.81 per share

- 2020-11: $142.95 per share

- 2020-12: $159.03 per share

- 2021-01: $150.76 per share

- 2021-02: $166.09 per share

- 2021-03: $181.25 per share

- 2021-04: $183.84 per share

- 2021-05: $193.36 per share

- 2021-06: $175.28 per share

- 2021-07: $174.98 per share

- 2021-08: $159.94 per share

- 2021-09: $156.48 per share

- 2021-10: $171.85 per share

- 2021-11: $167.79 per share

- 2021-12: $182.95 per share

- 2022-01: $167.32 per share

- 2022-02: $157.34 per share

- 2022-03: $142.59 per share

- 2022-04: $127.94 per share

- 2022-05: $140.96 per share

- 2022-06: $125.89 per share

- 2022-07: $151.14 per share

- 2022-08: $138.64 per share

- 2022-09: $119.69 per share

- 2022-10: $138.71 per share

- 2022-11: $144.24 per share

- 2022-12: $124.02 per share

- 2023-01: $145.78 per share

- 2023-02: $139.65 per share

- 2023-03: $139.49 per share

- 2023-04: $127.66 per share

- 2023-05: $122.66 per share

- 2023-06: $143.55 per share

- 2023-07: $154.76 per share

- 2023-08: $144.09 per share

- 2023-09: $134.20 per share

- 2023-10: $129.76 per share

- 2023-11: $133.75 per share

- 2023-12: $141.21 per share

- 2024-01: $132.90 per share

- 2024-02: $137.35 per share

- 2024-03: $144.88 per share

- 2024-04: $125.87 per share

- 2024-05: $125.35 per share

- 2024-06: $114.21 per share

- 2024-07: $122.04 per share

- 2024-08: $116.65 per share

- 2024-09: $109.15 per share

- 2024-10: $95.76 per share

- 2024-11: $97.84 per share

- 2024-12: $94.70 per share

- 2025-01: $94.09 per share

- 2025-02: $93.99 per share

- 2025-03: $88.22 per share

- 2025-04: $85.75 per share

- 2025-05: $90.42 per share

- 2025-06: $94.98 per share

- 2025-07: $94.29 per share

- 2025-08: $110.00 per share

- 2025-09: $100.61 per share

- 2025-10: $104.65 per share

- 2025-11: $107.36 per share

- 2025-12: $114.60 per share

- 2026-01: $117.09 per share

- 2026-02: $131.25 per share

- 2026-03: $121.08 per share

- 2026-04: $127.13 per share

- 2026-05: $143.12 per share

- 2026-06: $134.06 per share

- 2026-07: $130.64 per share

- 2026-08: $124.99 per share

- 2026-09: $118.03 per share

- 2026-10: $121.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $137.04 per share, central $181.11 per share, high $210.03 per share

- FY2017: low $168.75 per share, central $234.04 per share, high $272.06 per share

- FY2018: low $217.76 per share, central $304.06 per share, high $354.31 per share

- FY2019: low $219.18 per share, central $291.91 per share, high $339.06 per share

- FY2020: low $159.07 per share, central $178.77 per share, high $204.99 per share

- FY2021: low $137.82 per share, central $154.68 per share, high $177.12 per share

- FY2022: low $85.65 per share, central $95.84 per share, high $109.41 per share

- FY2023: low $100.81 per share, central $118.27 per share, high $135.69 per share

- FY2024: low $98.08 per share, central $110.15 per share, high $126.22 per share

- FY2025: low $108.56 per share, central $122.04 per share, high $139.98 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842162/000084216226000011/lear-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.