# Lumentum Holdings (LITE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LITE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:51.652Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $869.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 3.86×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: -0.05×

- FY2024: -0.27×

- FY2025: -0.12×

- FY2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -8.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.4%

- FY2018: 25.7%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: 15.6%

- FY2021: 28.6%

- FY2022: 28.6%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -18.1%

- FY2025: -8.4%

- FY2026: 16.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$7.0B

- Net income, five-year total: -$7.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 116.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.6%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: $275M

- FY2023: -$4.5M

- FY2024: -$392M

- FY2025: $52M

- FY2026: -$6.9B

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.4% vs -8.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.16 to -8.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $73B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$7.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$8.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$8.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$6.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -8.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$1.69

- FY2018: $3.92

- FY2019: -$0.51

- FY2020: $1.75

- FY2021: $5.07

- FY2022: $2.68

- FY2023: -$1.93

- FY2024: -$8.12

- FY2025: $0.37

- FY2026: -$92.96

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -105.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 22.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -15.2%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -13.5%

- FY2020: -11.8%

- FY2021: -9.6%

- FY2022: -6.3%

- FY2023: -6.7%

- FY2024: -14.5%

- FY2025: -2.4%

- FY2026: -105.2%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 2118% since Oct 2023 · "Lumentum Can’t Keep Up With AI Demand—and Its Stock Is Surging" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +83.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:04.660Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-03: Lumentum stock rises on raised guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumentum-stock-rises-raised-guidance-211411288.html))

- 2025-08-12: Lumentum takes advantage of AI data center demand, shares rise on Q4 results ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4484115-lumentum-takes-advantage-of-ai-data-center-demand-shares-rise-on-q4-results?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-05: Lumentum expects $650M Q2 revenue milestone, advances AI-driven optics growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4515329-lumentum-expects-650m-q2-revenue-milestone-advances-ai-driven-optics-growth?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-04: Lumentum Data Center Ramp Accelerates As Sales Pop Amid Better Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/146ae2f4-d619-343a-bd04-fbf670948e7b/lumentum-data-center-ramp.html))

- 2026-04-10: Nvidia-backed Lumentum sees AI boom keeping orders full through 2028 ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4573911-nvidia-backed-lumentum-sees-ai-boom-keeping-orders-full-through-2028?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-12: LITE Q4 Earnings Beat as AI Demand Drives Optical Growth Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/lite-q4-earnings-beat-ai-154200375.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +83.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm; observed 2026-08-17.

- FY2017: $1.0B 

- FY2018: $1.2B 

- FY2019: $1.6B 

- FY2020: $1.7B 

- FY2021: $1.7B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.8B 

- FY2024: $1.4B 

- FY2025: $1.6B 

- FY2026: $3.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 41.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm; observed 2026-08-17.

- FY2017: 31.8% 

- FY2018: 34.6% 

- FY2019: 27.2% 

- FY2020: 38.7% 

- FY2021: 46.0% 

- FY2022: 46.0% 

- FY2023: 32.2% 

- FY2024: 18.5% 

- FY2025: 28.0% 

- FY2026: 41.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in communication equipment; annual sales are USD 3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-17); FY2026: revenue 3014000000; grossProfit 1255900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LITE.US: Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers component products, including semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies, line subsystems, and wavelength management systems. The company also offers system products, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers, including short-pulse solid-state lasers and kilowatt-class fiber lasers. Its products and solutions are used in cloud, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), telecommunications, consumer, and industrial end-market applications. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.5% to 41.7% during 2024–26; it earns 12% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 41.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08431390134529149],[2018,0.2566030814380044],[2019,-0.014208159866777686],[2020,0.156198444383672],[2021,0.28580838325055463],[2022,0.286270452599377],[2023,-0.045504997369805365],[2024,-0.18137729496220062],[2025,-0.08412543631226106],[2026,0.16534737177953257]]; median 0.12025617286448174. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 102 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2018: growth capex 16000000; upkeep 77200000; owner earnings 248100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06449012494961709.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 86000000; owner earnings 241400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 94800000; owner earnings 469600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 91200000; owner earnings 274800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 231000000; owner earnings 51600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,900000],[2018,700000],[2019,700000],[2020,700000],[2021,200000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-17); FY2026: cash repurchases 102000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LITE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.562 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our ability to sell our products to a previously significant customer has been restricted." (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-17); Our ability to sell our products to a previously significant customer has been restricted.

### What the price says

The price is 21.5 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-17); Closing price 869.54 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 40.402144772117964; price multiple 21.522124751161247. FY2026 cash earnings/share -92.96380697050938. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.60 per share

- 2016-11: $40.10 per share

- 2016-12: $38.65 per share

- 2017-01: $37.95 per share

- 2017-02: $45.90 per share

- 2017-03: $53.35 per share

- 2017-04: $42.75 per share

- 2017-05: $57.05 per share

- 2017-06: $57.05 per share

- 2017-07: $62.60 per share

- 2017-08: $56.85 per share

- 2017-09: $54.35 per share

- 2017-10: $63.15 per share

- 2017-11: $54.05 per share

- 2017-12: $48.90 per share

- 2018-01: $46.30 per share

- 2018-02: $61.00 per share

- 2018-03: $63.80 per share

- 2018-04: $50.45 per share

- 2018-05: $58.75 per share

- 2018-06: $57.90 per share

- 2018-07: $52.25 per share

- 2018-08: $67.90 per share

- 2018-09: $59.95 per share

- 2018-10: $54.65 per share

- 2018-11: $44.47 per share

- 2018-12: $42.01 per share

- 2019-01: $48.91 per share

- 2019-02: $49.75 per share

- 2019-03: $56.54 per share

- 2019-04: $61.97 per share

- 2019-05: $40.47 per share

- 2019-06: $53.41 per share

- 2019-07: $56.63 per share

- 2019-08: $55.76 per share

- 2019-09: $53.56 per share

- 2019-10: $62.66 per share

- 2019-11: $73.66 per share

- 2019-12: $79.30 per share

- 2020-01: $75.77 per share

- 2020-02: $77.82 per share

- 2020-03: $73.70 per share

- 2020-04: $80.91 per share

- 2020-05: $73.32 per share

- 2020-06: $81.43 per share

- 2020-07: $92.83 per share

- 2020-08: $86.00 per share

- 2020-09: $75.13 per share

- 2020-10: $82.69 per share

- 2020-11: $86.38 per share

- 2020-12: $94.80 per share

- 2021-01: $93.80 per share

- 2021-02: $90.00 per share

- 2021-03: $91.35 per share

- 2021-04: $85.05 per share

- 2021-05: $81.37 per share

- 2021-06: $82.03 per share

- 2021-07: $83.99 per share

- 2021-08: $86.64 per share

- 2021-09: $83.54 per share

- 2021-10: $82.58 per share

- 2021-11: $86.77 per share

- 2021-12: $105.77 per share

- 2022-01: $101.48 per share

- 2022-02: $98.86 per share

- 2022-03: $97.60 per share

- 2022-04: $81.21 per share

- 2022-05: $86.08 per share

- 2022-06: $79.42 per share

- 2022-07: $90.46 per share

- 2022-08: $83.55 per share

- 2022-09: $68.57 per share

- 2022-10: $74.45 per share

- 2022-11: $54.94 per share

- 2022-12: $52.17 per share

- 2023-01: $60.18 per share

- 2023-02: $53.81 per share

- 2023-03: $54.01 per share

- 2023-04: $48.25 per share

- 2023-05: $52.90 per share

- 2023-06: $56.73 per share

- 2023-07: $52.36 per share

- 2023-08: $54.13 per share

- 2023-09: $45.18 per share

- 2023-10: $39.21 per share

- 2023-11: $42.80 per share

- 2023-12: $52.42 per share

- 2024-01: $54.94 per share

- 2024-02: $48.47 per share

- 2024-03: $47.35 per share

- 2024-04: $43.76 per share

- 2024-05: $43.50 per share

- 2024-06: $50.92 per share

- 2024-07: $51.78 per share

- 2024-08: $57.61 per share

- 2024-09: $63.38 per share

- 2024-10: $63.87 per share

- 2024-11: $86.97 per share

- 2024-12: $83.95 per share

- 2025-01: $85.06 per share

- 2025-02: $70.33 per share

- 2025-03: $62.34 per share

- 2025-04: $59.04 per share

- 2025-05: $72.28 per share

- 2025-06: $95.06 per share

- 2025-07: $110.08 per share

- 2025-08: $132.81 per share

- 2025-09: $162.71 per share

- 2025-10: $201.56 per share

- 2025-11: $325.16 per share

- 2025-12: $368.59 per share

- 2026-01: $391.84 per share

- 2026-02: $700.91 per share

- 2026-03: $702.76 per share

- 2026-04: $902.32 per share

- 2026-05: $854.96 per share

- 2026-06: $858.06 per share

- 2026-07: $713.94 per share

- 2026-08: $914.76 per share

- 2026-09: $971.26 per share

- 2026-10: $987.99 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $58.72 per share, central $63.46 per share, high $69.76 per share

- FY2022: low $81.94 per share, central $99.30 per share, high $110.56 per share

- FY2023: low $69.63 per share, central $75.24 per share, high $82.70 per share

- FY2024: low $44.52 per share, central $48.90 per share, high $54.73 per share

- FY2025: low $20.23 per share, central $21.35 per share, high $22.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633978/000162828026057358/lite-20260627.htm); period 2026-06-27, filed 2026-08-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.