# El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LOCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:54.502Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $16.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.51 per share, central $10.80 per share, high $12.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:54.502Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: -0.02×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 18.9%

- FY2017: 5.8%

- FY2018: -8.9%

- FY2019: 9.2%

- FY2020: 9.8%

- FY2021: 11.5%

- FY2022: 8.2%

- FY2023: 10.9%

- FY2024: 11.0%

- FY2025: 10.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $121M

- Net income, five-year total: $128M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -3.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.76×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.8% vs 10.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.47 to 0.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.9%

- Market cap gain: -$160M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $151M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.8%

- Per-share value change: $0.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.86

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.61

- Average buyback yield: 5.3%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $195M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.47

- FY2017: $0.22

- FY2018: -$0.23

- FY2019: $0.67

- FY2020: $0.68

- FY2021: $0.80

- FY2022: $0.57

- FY2023: $0.74

- FY2024: $0.86

- FY2025: $0.90

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 13.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.82×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.6%

- FY2017: -10.2%

- FY2018: -12.1%

- FY2019: -1.8%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years · sales +2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:05.369Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2017: $402M 

- FY2018: $436M 

- FY2019: $442M 

- FY2020: $426M 

- FY2021: $454M 

- FY2022: $470M 

- FY2023: $469M 

- FY2024: $473M 

- FY2025: $490M 

- FY2026: $501M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 28.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2016: 24.7% 

- FY2017: 24.0% 

- FY2018: 22.1% 

- FY2019: 21.9% 

- FY2020: 22.0% 

- FY2021: 21.8% 

- FY2022: 17.8% 

- FY2023: 19.9% 

- FY2024: 21.9% 

- FY2025: 28.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 490 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: revenue 490046000; grossProfit 140353000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.9% to 28.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.189466839504718],[2017,0.058103769329077314],[2018,-0.08921529775475369],[2019,0.09188450343372633],[2020,0.09777698108923678],[2021,0.11497294147416175],[2022,0.08191039426682291],[2023,0.1087584404019082],[2024,0.1099428950082706],[2025,0.10853742166612394]]; median 0.10315720137768036. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 25.2% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2016: growth capex 6412795.393938262; upkeep 30997204.606061738; owner earnings 3394795.393938262. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.8890079223593073.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15439000; owner earnings 27316000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 6690000; owner earnings 34662000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2021: growth capex 1865000; upkeep 15176000; owner earnings 29121000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06404313038700594.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2022: growth capex 5499000; upkeep 14418000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 20801000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.26436229027450603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 21332000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 19457000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: growth capex 2402132.3793964535; upkeep 16678867.620603547; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 24722132.379396453. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09716525834148523.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: growth capex 6669000; upkeep 15966000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 26486000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.251793400286944.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,13307000],[2019,1450000],[2020,5531000],[2021,161000],[2022,55574000],[2023,35684000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 1842000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); LOCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.447 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07459800624034696. Price 16.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.22481757357729776 → FY2025 0.9009796614539838. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.20 per share

- 2016-11: $12.60 per share

- 2016-12: $12.30 per share

- 2017-01: $12.45 per share

- 2017-02: $12.50 per share

- 2017-03: $11.95 per share

- 2017-04: $12.55 per share

- 2017-05: $13.65 per share

- 2017-06: $13.85 per share

- 2017-07: $13.00 per share

- 2017-08: $11.35 per share

- 2017-09: $12.15 per share

- 2017-10: $11.50 per share

- 2017-11: $10.55 per share

- 2017-12: $9.90 per share

- 2018-01: $10.05 per share

- 2018-02: $9.75 per share

- 2018-03: $9.50 per share

- 2018-04: $10.00 per share

- 2018-05: $10.60 per share

- 2018-06: $11.40 per share

- 2018-07: $11.60 per share

- 2018-08: $11.90 per share

- 2018-09: $12.55 per share

- 2018-10: $12.51 per share

- 2018-11: $15.27 per share

- 2018-12: $15.17 per share

- 2019-01: $16.49 per share

- 2019-02: $15.13 per share

- 2019-03: $13.01 per share

- 2019-04: $12.78 per share

- 2019-05: $10.48 per share

- 2019-06: $10.66 per share

- 2019-07: $9.84 per share

- 2019-08: $10.21 per share

- 2019-09: $10.96 per share

- 2019-10: $11.62 per share

- 2019-11: $16.12 per share

- 2019-12: $15.14 per share

- 2020-01: $13.78 per share

- 2020-02: $12.90 per share

- 2020-03: $8.45 per share

- 2020-04: $12.23 per share

- 2020-05: $13.87 per share

- 2020-06: $14.76 per share

- 2020-07: $19.76 per share

- 2020-08: $17.87 per share

- 2020-09: $16.20 per share

- 2020-10: $14.12 per share

- 2020-11: $15.67 per share

- 2020-12: $18.10 per share

- 2021-01: $20.35 per share

- 2021-02: $18.33 per share

- 2021-03: $16.12 per share

- 2021-04: $16.94 per share

- 2021-05: $16.86 per share

- 2021-06: $18.29 per share

- 2021-07: $18.61 per share

- 2021-08: $18.14 per share

- 2021-09: $16.90 per share

- 2021-10: $14.70 per share

- 2021-11: $12.62 per share

- 2021-12: $14.19 per share

- 2022-01: $13.34 per share

- 2022-02: $13.27 per share

- 2022-03: $11.62 per share

- 2022-04: $10.65 per share

- 2022-05: $10.36 per share

- 2022-06: $9.84 per share

- 2022-07: $9.72 per share

- 2022-08: $9.05 per share

- 2022-09: $8.92 per share

- 2022-10: $10.04 per share

- 2022-11: $10.90 per share

- 2022-12: $9.96 per share

- 2023-01: $12.27 per share

- 2023-02: $11.97 per share

- 2023-03: $9.59 per share

- 2023-04: $9.32 per share

- 2023-05: $9.14 per share

- 2023-06: $8.77 per share

- 2023-07: $10.65 per share

- 2023-08: $9.51 per share

- 2023-09: $8.95 per share

- 2023-10: $8.35 per share

- 2023-11: $8.31 per share

- 2023-12: $8.82 per share

- 2024-01: $9.26 per share

- 2024-02: $9.06 per share

- 2024-03: $9.74 per share

- 2024-04: $8.52 per share

- 2024-05: $10.68 per share

- 2024-06: $11.31 per share

- 2024-07: $12.06 per share

- 2024-08: $13.86 per share

- 2024-09: $13.70 per share

- 2024-10: $12.22 per share

- 2024-11: $12.72 per share

- 2024-12: $11.54 per share

- 2025-01: $11.87 per share

- 2025-02: $11.28 per share

- 2025-03: $10.30 per share

- 2025-04: $9.35 per share

- 2025-05: $10.50 per share

- 2025-06: $11.01 per share

- 2025-07: $10.30 per share

- 2025-08: $10.63 per share

- 2025-09: $9.70 per share

- 2025-10: $10.22 per share

- 2025-11: $10.91 per share

- 2025-12: $10.46 per share

- 2026-01: $10.13 per share

- 2026-02: $11.06 per share

- 2026-03: $13.86 per share

- 2026-04: $13.52 per share

- 2026-05: $14.87 per share

- 2026-06: $16.96 per share

- 2026-07: $16.46 per share

- 2026-08: $15.27 per share

- 2026-09: $14.35 per share

- 2026-10: $16.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $0.95 per share, central $1.08 per share, high $1.26 per share

- FY2017: low $1.02 per share, central $1.15 per share, high $1.34 per share

- FY2018: low $1.10 per share, central $1.25 per share, high $1.46 per share

- FY2019: low $1.15 per share, central $1.31 per share, high $1.52 per share

- FY2020: low $1.29 per share, central $1.45 per share, high $1.67 per share

- FY2021: low $8.99 per share, central $10.15 per share, high $11.69 per share

- FY2022: low $8.98 per share, central $10.17 per share, high $11.76 per share

- FY2023: low $9.20 per share, central $10.47 per share, high $12.16 per share

- FY2024: low $9.00 per share, central $10.24 per share, high $11.89 per share

- FY2025: low $9.52 per share, central $10.84 per share, high $12.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606366/000160636626000017/loco-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.