# Lowe's Companies (LOW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LOW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:55.304Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $195.72 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $156.94 per share, central $178.48 per share, high $207.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value $178.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:55.304Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.4% at the stated quote. About 9.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.12×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.11×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 29.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 21.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 20.6%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 19.6%

- FY2021: 32.9%

- FY2022: 39.9%

- FY2023: 33.4%

- FY2024: 37.3%

- FY2025: 34.6%

- FY2026: 26.2%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 28.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $36B

- Net income, five-year total: $36B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 64.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.01×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.6% vs 34.6%

- Per-share earnings: 3.51 to 12.25 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Market cap gain: $87B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$17B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 16.9%

- Per-share value change: $8.74

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.51

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.25

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.81

- Average buyback yield: 5.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $13B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $55B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 34.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $3.51

- FY2018: $4.10

- FY2019: $2.85

- FY2020: $5.50

- FY2021: $7.78

- FY2022: $12.08

- FY2023: $10.20

- FY2024: $13.23

- FY2025: $12.25

- FY2026: $11.88

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -5.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 11.24×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.48×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.3%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -11.2%

- FY2020: -0.0%

- FY2021: -10.8%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: -6.0%

- FY2026: -5.9%

## Holders

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Nov 2024 · "Lowe’s Cuts Full-Year Sales Outlook as DIY Spending Remains Under Pressure" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:05.543Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-20: Lowe's to Buy Foundation Building Materials for $8.8B, Lifts Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lowes-buy-foundation-building-materials-215146047.html))

- 2025-11-19: Lowe’s Sales Rise, Boosted by Growth in Pro Builder Business ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/62e638e4-a8dd-3448-967d-39917a30cb11/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-rise%2C-boosted-by.html))

- 2026-03-06: How Investors Are Reacting To Lowe's (LOW) Cautious 2026 Guidance After Profit Decline ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-reacting-lowes-low-cautious-071043184.html))

- 2026-05-21: Lowe's Faces 'Constrained' Earnings Growth Amid Weak DIY Demand, BofA Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lowe-apos-faces-apos-constrained-150140978.html))

- 2026-08-19: Lowe’s Cuts Full-Year Sales Outlook as DIY Spending Remains Under Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/lowe-cuts-full-sales-outlook-133825179.html))

- 2026-09-01: Lowe's Cuts 2026 Outlook as DIY Pressure Tests Its Growth Engines ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lowes-cuts-2026-outlook-diy-141500206.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2017: $65B 

- FY2018: $69B 

- FY2019: $71B 

- FY2020: $72B 

- FY2021: $90B 

- FY2022: $96B 

- FY2023: $97B 

- FY2024: $86B 

- FY2025: $84B 

- FY2026: $86B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 33.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2017: 33.3% 

- FY2018: 32.7% 

- FY2019: 32.1% 

- FY2020: 31.8% 

- FY2021: 33.0% 

- FY2022: 33.3% 

- FY2023: 33.2% 

- FY2024: 33.4% 

- FY2025: 33.3% 

- FY2026: 33.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in home improvement retail; annual sales are USD 86.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2026: revenue 86286000000; grossProfit 28885000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.3% to 33.5% during 2024–26; it earns 29.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.18633354582454764],[2018,0.2064676376965371],[2019,0.1454440048562408],[2020,0.19586375417829097],[2021,0.32851186541000404],[2022,0.39857316818009453],[2023,0.3335481669007959],[2024,0.3725322312077278],[2025,0.3458237309989621],[2026,0.26214470530440465]]; median 0.29532828535720435. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 33% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.33005569382903444],[2022,0.33304935064935065],[2023,0.33234424422258624]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 64.2% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1167000000; cash acquisitions 2356000000; owner earnings 3514000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6704610130904952.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1123000000; cash acquisitions 509000000; owner earnings 3864000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1317287784679089.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1174000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2747000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2020: growth capex 74000000; upkeep 1410000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 4281000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01728568091567391.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2021: growth capex 197000000; upkeep 1594000000; owner earnings 5835000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0337617823479006.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1853000000; owner earnings 8471000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1829000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 6589000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1964000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7685000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1927000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7002000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2026: growth capex 19000000; upkeep 2194000000; cash acquisitions 10088000000; owner earnings 6654000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5189359783588818.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Incremental return on capital 0.6418659026123267, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,1121000000],[2018,1288000000],[2019,1455000000],[2020,1618000000],[2021,1704000000],[2022,1984000000],[2023,2370000000],[2024,2531000000],[2025,2566000000],[2026,2636000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); FY2026: cash repurchases 211000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LOW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.109 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Supply Chain and Third-Party Risks" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm (filed 2026-03-23); Supply Chain and Third-Party Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.022597152001827818. Price 195.72; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 3.160387513455328 → FY2026 11.882142857142858. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $66.65 per share

- 2016-11: $70.55 per share

- 2016-12: $71.12 per share

- 2017-01: $73.08 per share

- 2017-02: $74.37 per share

- 2017-03: $82.21 per share

- 2017-04: $84.88 per share

- 2017-05: $78.77 per share

- 2017-06: $77.53 per share

- 2017-07: $77.40 per share

- 2017-08: $73.89 per share

- 2017-09: $79.94 per share

- 2017-10: $79.95 per share

- 2017-11: $83.37 per share

- 2017-12: $92.94 per share

- 2018-01: $104.73 per share

- 2018-02: $89.59 per share

- 2018-03: $87.75 per share

- 2018-04: $82.43 per share

- 2018-05: $95.01 per share

- 2018-06: $95.57 per share

- 2018-07: $99.34 per share

- 2018-08: $108.75 per share

- 2018-09: $114.82 per share

- 2018-10: $95.22 per share

- 2018-11: $94.37 per share

- 2018-12: $92.36 per share

- 2019-01: $96.16 per share

- 2019-02: $105.09 per share

- 2019-03: $109.47 per share

- 2019-04: $113.14 per share

- 2019-05: $93.28 per share

- 2019-06: $100.91 per share

- 2019-07: $101.40 per share

- 2019-08: $112.20 per share

- 2019-09: $109.96 per share

- 2019-10: $111.61 per share

- 2019-11: $117.31 per share

- 2019-12: $119.76 per share

- 2020-01: $116.24 per share

- 2020-02: $106.57 per share

- 2020-03: $86.05 per share

- 2020-04: $104.75 per share

- 2020-05: $130.35 per share

- 2020-06: $135.12 per share

- 2020-07: $148.91 per share

- 2020-08: $164.69 per share

- 2020-09: $165.86 per share

- 2020-10: $158.10 per share

- 2020-11: $155.82 per share

- 2020-12: $160.51 per share

- 2021-01: $166.85 per share

- 2021-02: $159.75 per share

- 2021-03: $190.18 per share

- 2021-04: $196.25 per share

- 2021-05: $194.83 per share

- 2021-06: $193.97 per share

- 2021-07: $192.69 per share

- 2021-08: $203.89 per share

- 2021-09: $202.86 per share

- 2021-10: $233.82 per share

- 2021-11: $244.59 per share

- 2021-12: $258.48 per share

- 2022-01: $237.35 per share

- 2022-02: $221.06 per share

- 2022-03: $202.19 per share

- 2022-04: $197.73 per share

- 2022-05: $195.30 per share

- 2022-06: $174.67 per share

- 2022-07: $191.53 per share

- 2022-08: $194.14 per share

- 2022-09: $187.81 per share

- 2022-10: $194.95 per share

- 2022-11: $212.55 per share

- 2022-12: $199.24 per share

- 2023-01: $208.25 per share

- 2023-02: $205.75 per share

- 2023-03: $199.97 per share

- 2023-04: $207.83 per share

- 2023-05: $201.13 per share

- 2023-06: $225.70 per share

- 2023-07: $234.27 per share

- 2023-08: $230.48 per share

- 2023-09: $207.84 per share

- 2023-10: $190.57 per share

- 2023-11: $198.83 per share

- 2023-12: $222.55 per share

- 2024-01: $212.84 per share

- 2024-02: $240.67 per share

- 2024-03: $254.73 per share

- 2024-04: $227.99 per share

- 2024-05: $221.29 per share

- 2024-06: $220.46 per share

- 2024-07: $245.51 per share

- 2024-08: $248.50 per share

- 2024-09: $270.85 per share

- 2024-10: $261.83 per share

- 2024-11: $272.43 per share

- 2024-12: $246.80 per share

- 2025-01: $260.04 per share

- 2025-02: $248.64 per share

- 2025-03: $233.23 per share

- 2025-04: $223.56 per share

- 2025-05: $225.73 per share

- 2025-06: $221.87 per share

- 2025-07: $223.57 per share

- 2025-08: $258.06 per share

- 2025-09: $251.31 per share

- 2025-10: $238.13 per share

- 2025-11: $242.48 per share

- 2025-12: $241.16 per share

- 2026-01: $267.06 per share

- 2026-02: $264.57 per share

- 2026-03: $236.28 per share

- 2026-04: $238.79 per share

- 2026-05: $214.36 per share

- 2026-06: $220.49 per share

- 2026-07: $207.81 per share

- 2026-08: $204.70 per share

- 2026-09: $184.29 per share

- 2026-10: $188.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $43.60 per share, central $49.61 per share, high $57.61 per share

- FY2018: low $48.61 per share, central $55.31 per share, high $64.23 per share

- FY2019: low $51.88 per share, central $59.03 per share, high $68.55 per share

- FY2020: low $54.78 per share, central $62.34 per share, high $72.39 per share

- FY2021: low $78.07 per share, central $88.21 per share, high $101.70 per share

- FY2022: low $89.30 per share, central $101.62 per share, high $118.01 per share

- FY2023: low $136.19 per share, central $194.55 per share, high $228.53 per share

- FY2024: low $114.49 per share, central $130.50 per share, high $151.82 per share

- FY2025: low $141.37 per share, central $161.02 per share, high $187.20 per share

- FY2026: low $147.02 per share, central $167.58 per share, high $194.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:40.152Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60667/000006066726000029/low-20260130.htm); period 2026-01-30, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.