# Dorian LPG (LPG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LPG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:55.456Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $53.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $77.56 per share, central $87.19 per share, high $100.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value $87.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:55.456Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.4% at the stated quote. About 15.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: 0.34×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 0.59×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- FY2026: 0.43×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.58×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -9.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: 0.2%

- FY2019: -0.4%

- FY2020: 10.2%

- FY2021: 7.9%

- FY2022: 6.2%

- FY2023: 13.2%

- FY2024: 20.4%

- FY2025: 6.2%

- FY2026: 10.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $836M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.79×

- FY2023: 1.23×

- FY2024: 1.12×

- FY2025: 1.56×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.2% vs 10.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.03 to 4.54 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Market cap gain: $884M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $244M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: $4.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.54

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.39

- Average buyback yield: 6.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $967M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.03

- FY2018: -$0.38

- FY2019: -$0.93

- FY2020: $2.07

- FY2021: $1.86

- FY2022: $1.78

- FY2023: $4.29

- FY2024: $7.60

- FY2025: $2.14

- FY2026: $4.54

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.47×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.09×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -4.5%

- FY2019: -3.7%

- FY2020: -3.4%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: 3.3%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -4.7%

- FY2026: -0.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6% a year for ten years · sales +20.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:05.622Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-01: Dorian LPG signals strong Q2 TCE rates above $67,000/day while advancing fleet upgrades ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476764-dorian-lpg-signals-strong-q2-tce-rates-above-67000-day-while-advancing-fleet-upgrades?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +20.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2018: $159M 

- FY2019: $158M 

- FY2020: $333M 

- FY2021: $316M 

- FY2022: $274M 

- FY2023: $390M 

- FY2024: $561M 

- FY2025: $353M 

- FY2026: $482M 

- FY2027: $582M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 54.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2017: 19.9% 

- FY2018: 17.2% 

- FY2019: 15.2% 

- FY2020: 54.8% 

- FY2021: 46.8% 

- FY2022: 41.2% 

- FY2023: 58.5% 

- FY2024: 65.1% 

- FY2025: 43.2% 

- FY2026: 54.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are USD 481.5 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: revenue 481511242; grossProfit 260503264; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.2% to 65.1% during 2024–26; it earns 7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 65.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 54.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.0064687329109355506],[2018,0.0018790549751097087],[2019,-0.0039862287073407715],[2020,0.10220960481065919],[2021,0.07861337310087242],[2022,0.06189142117930223],[2023,0.13229051712851073],[2024,0.20372133897479883],[2025,0.06170355071236976],[2026,0.10774690962006264]]; median 0.07025239714008732. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 11.4% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1919665; owner earnings 61696007. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 437037; owner earnings 44492228. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4020614; owner earnings 10234632. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 20024102; owner earnings 159965208. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 9510494; owner earnings 160735172. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 9510494; owner earnings 128856639. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 23185913; owner earnings 212654148. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 32853093; owner earnings 343259727. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 18948804; owner earnings 140820763. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: growth capex 22100277; upkeep 71743685; owner earnings 193665933. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1141154598418711.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,80082210],[2020,80082210],[2021,80082210],[2022,80082210],[2023,80082210],[2024,162260785],[2025,156398056],[2026,105007158]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: cash repurchases 7012220 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09696406350674597. Price 53.68; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.2869869156053033 → FY2026 4.5446759096025335. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $5.63 per share

- 2016-11: $6.98 per share

- 2016-12: $8.21 per share

- 2017-01: $11.31 per share

- 2017-02: $9.42 per share

- 2017-03: $10.53 per share

- 2017-04: $9.09 per share

- 2017-05: $7.81 per share

- 2017-06: $8.18 per share

- 2017-07: $7.20 per share

- 2017-08: $6.86 per share

- 2017-09: $6.82 per share

- 2017-10: $7.15 per share

- 2017-11: $7.22 per share

- 2017-12: $8.22 per share

- 2018-01: $7.64 per share

- 2018-02: $7.32 per share

- 2018-03: $7.49 per share

- 2018-04: $7.19 per share

- 2018-05: $8.08 per share

- 2018-06: $7.64 per share

- 2018-07: $8.50 per share

- 2018-08: $7.62 per share

- 2018-09: $7.97 per share

- 2018-10: $7.95 per share

- 2018-11: $7.03 per share

- 2018-12: $5.83 per share

- 2019-01: $5.48 per share

- 2019-02: $5.90 per share

- 2019-03: $6.42 per share

- 2019-04: $8.02 per share

- 2019-05: $7.06 per share

- 2019-06: $9.02 per share

- 2019-07: $9.15 per share

- 2019-08: $10.39 per share

- 2019-09: $10.36 per share

- 2019-10: $12.45 per share

- 2019-11: $14.35 per share

- 2019-12: $15.48 per share

- 2020-01: $13.12 per share

- 2020-02: $11.12 per share

- 2020-03: $8.71 per share

- 2020-04: $9.49 per share

- 2020-05: $8.22 per share

- 2020-06: $7.74 per share

- 2020-07: $8.54 per share

- 2020-08: $8.44 per share

- 2020-09: $8.01 per share

- 2020-10: $8.20 per share

- 2020-11: $10.93 per share

- 2020-12: $12.19 per share

- 2021-01: $11.59 per share

- 2021-02: $12.45 per share

- 2021-03: $13.13 per share

- 2021-04: $13.29 per share

- 2021-05: $14.21 per share

- 2021-06: $14.12 per share

- 2021-07: $12.10 per share

- 2021-08: $13.22 per share

- 2021-09: $12.41 per share

- 2021-10: $12.12 per share

- 2021-11: $12.31 per share

- 2021-12: $12.69 per share

- 2022-01: $11.89 per share

- 2022-02: $13.78 per share

- 2022-03: $14.49 per share

- 2022-04: $14.72 per share

- 2022-05: $17.00 per share

- 2022-06: $15.20 per share

- 2022-07: $16.12 per share

- 2022-08: $14.55 per share

- 2022-09: $13.57 per share

- 2022-10: $18.07 per share

- 2022-11: $19.47 per share

- 2022-12: $18.95 per share

- 2023-01: $19.85 per share

- 2023-02: $21.95 per share

- 2023-03: $19.94 per share

- 2023-04: $22.22 per share

- 2023-05: $23.08 per share

- 2023-06: $25.65 per share

- 2023-07: $29.74 per share

- 2023-08: $25.80 per share

- 2023-09: $28.73 per share

- 2023-10: $31.97 per share

- 2023-11: $42.36 per share

- 2023-12: $43.87 per share

- 2024-01: $37.44 per share

- 2024-02: $36.15 per share

- 2024-03: $38.46 per share

- 2024-04: $41.32 per share

- 2024-05: $50.61 per share

- 2024-06: $41.96 per share

- 2024-07: $40.86 per share

- 2024-08: $38.99 per share

- 2024-09: $34.42 per share

- 2024-10: $28.85 per share

- 2024-11: $24.47 per share

- 2024-12: $24.37 per share

- 2025-01: $24.04 per share

- 2025-02: $20.36 per share

- 2025-03: $22.34 per share

- 2025-04: $21.42 per share

- 2025-05: $21.41 per share

- 2025-06: $24.38 per share

- 2025-07: $28.79 per share

- 2025-08: $31.98 per share

- 2025-09: $29.80 per share

- 2025-10: $28.85 per share

- 2025-11: $24.78 per share

- 2025-12: $24.34 per share

- 2026-01: $29.53 per share

- 2026-02: $36.99 per share

- 2026-03: $34.20 per share

- 2026-04: $38.55 per share

- 2026-05: $40.22 per share

- 2026-06: $34.78 per share

- 2026-07: $47.42 per share

- 2026-08: $50.04 per share

- 2026-09: $55.06 per share

- 2026-10: $53.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $8.46 per share, central $9.59 per share, high $11.10 per share

- FY2018: low $10.86 per share, central $12.10 per share, high $13.75 per share

- FY2019: low $9.36 per share, central $10.58 per share, high $12.20 per share

- FY2020: low $25.86 per share, central $29.28 per share, high $33.84 per share

- FY2021: low $27.00 per share, central $30.52 per share, high $35.21 per share

- FY2022: low $36.72 per share, central $41.53 per share, high $47.94 per share

- FY2023: low $68.91 per share, central $96.00 per share, high $111.78 per share

- FY2024: low $102.87 per share, central $143.95 per share, high $167.88 per share

- FY2025: low $61.11 per share, central $78.54 per share, high $90.68 per share

- FY2026: low $65.49 per share, central $73.49 per share, high $84.15 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.