# Lam Research (LRCX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LRCX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:56.757Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $277.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $76.15 per share, central $109.21 per share, high $127.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value $109.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:56.757Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.8% at the stated quote. About 5.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.31×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- FY2026: 0.35×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 84.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 73.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 56.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 96.7%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 98.2%

- FY2020: 88.9%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 78.1%

- FY2023: 73.4%

- FY2024: 61.6%

- FY2025: 80.4%

- FY2026: 76.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $25B

- Net income, five-year total: $26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 82.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 38.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 98.2% vs 76.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.92 to 4.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Market cap gain: $519B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $29B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 20.7%

- Per-share value change: $3.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.92

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90

- Average buyback yield: 4.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $38B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 98.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 76.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.92

- FY2018: $1.32

- FY2019: $1.37

- FY2020: $1.51

- FY2021: $2.69

- FY2022: $3.27

- FY2023: $3.32

- FY2024: $2.90

- FY2025: $4.15

- FY2026: $5.76

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.25×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.81×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.28×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -8.2%

- FY2020: 0.9%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 8.8%

- FY2023: -3.6%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -3.8%

- FY2026: 6.0%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 36% since Jun 2026 · "Lam Research (LRCX) Stock Slides As AI Memory Boom Loses Steam" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +26%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:05.901Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: LRCX Q3 Deep Dive: AI Demand and Memory Upgrades Drive Performance Amid China Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lrcx-q3-deep-dive-ai-053335292.html))

- 2026-01-28: Lam Research’s Q2, outlook beat helped by high chipmaking equipment demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lam-research-q2-outlook-beat-215316810.html))

- 2026-04-23: LRCX Q1 Deep Dive: AI Demand Fuels Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lrcx-q1-deep-dive-ai-104523207.html))

- 2026-05-20: LRCX Ups WFE View Amid AI Demand: Can It Lift Systems Revenues? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/lrcx-ups-wfe-view-amid-155800959.html))

- 2026-06-21: Lam Research (LRCX) Is Up 6.1% After AI-Fueled Beat And Raised Chip-Equipment Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lam-research-lrcx-6-1-230937301.html))

- 2026-07-05: Lam Research (LRCX) Stock Falls As AI Demand Fears Clash With Company Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lam-research-lrcx-stock-falls-120800140.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +26%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm; observed 2026-08-07.

- FY2017: $8.0B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $9.7B 

- FY2020: $10B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $17B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $23B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 50.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm; observed 2026-08-07.

- FY2017: 45.0% 

- FY2018: 46.6% 

- FY2019: 45.1% 

- FY2020: 45.9% 

- FY2021: 46.5% 

- FY2022: 45.7% 

- FY2023: 44.6% 

- FY2024: 47.3% 

- FY2025: 48.7% 

- FY2026: 50.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductor equipment & materials; annual sales are USD 23.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); FY2026: revenue 23232690000; grossProfit 11725308000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LRCX.US: Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe. The company offers ALTUS systems to deposit conformal or selective films for tungsten or molybdenum metallization applications; SABRE electrochemical deposition products for copper interconnect transition, which support copper damascene manufacturing; Striker single-wafer atomic layer deposition products for dielectric film solutions; and VECTOR plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (CVD) products. It also provides Akara, a conductor etch system designed to enhance etch precision, selectivity, and defect control; Argos, Prevos, and Selis, which are selective etch systems used in the fabrication of advanced logic and memory devices that require precise control at nanoscale dimensions; Flex for dielectric etch applications; Vantex, a dielectric etch system that provides RF technology and repeatable wafer-to-wafer performance enabled by Equipment Intelligence solutions; Kiyo for conductor etch applications; Syndion for deep silicon etch; and Versys metal products for metal etch processes. In addition, the company offers Coronus bevel clean products to enhance die yield and Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, and SP series products to address various wafer cleaning applications. Further, it provides Reliant deposition, etch, and clean products; Sense.i platform products; and customer service, spares, and upgrades. Lam Research Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.3% to 50.5% during 2024–26; it earns 84.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 50.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.9672468249366842],[2018,1.0814695598292168],[2019,0.9820873810999328],[2020,0.8887029325705302],[2021,1.0899252031441204],[2022,0.7809457246954601],[2023,0.7340145696135835],[2024,0.6161754249194301],[2025,0.8039368743784163],[2026,0.7681334947818079]]; median 0.8463199034744733. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 46% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4652834819826133],[2022,0.45694486440763266],[2023,0.44626477315908125]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 82.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 157419000; owner earnings 1847249000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 273469000; owner earnings 2433607000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 303491000; owner earnings 2197220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 203239000; owner earnings 2317039000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2021: growth capex 41945000; upkeep 307151000; owner earnings 3908458000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.010731853841080037.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2022: growth capex 212295000; upkeep 333739000; owner earnings 4605286000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04609811421049637.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2023: growth capex 20273478.69414991; upkeep 481294521.3058501; owner earnings 4372068478.69415. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0046370450950039095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 396670000; owner earnings 3790801000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); FY2025: growth capex 372909000; upkeep 386277000; owner earnings 5358217000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0695957255930471.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); FY2026: growth capex 524872000; upkeep 441533000; owner earnings 7265396000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07224272427820864.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); Incremental return on capital 0.8247774417498711, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); Dividend observations: [[2017,243495000],[2018,307609000],[2019,678348000],[2020,656838000],[2021,726992000],[2022,815290000],[2023,907907000],[2024,1018915000],[2025,1149542000],[2026,1270635000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); FY2026: cash repurchases 3851343000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LRCX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.281 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our Sales to Customers in China, a Significant Region for Us, Have Been Impacted," (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm (filed 2026-08-07); Our Sales to Customers in China, a Significant Region for Us, Have Been Impacted,

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 25.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3719796518344237. Price 277.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.5878927146192887 → FY2026 5.76114858274747. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $9.69 per share

- 2016-11: $10.60 per share

- 2016-12: $10.57 per share

- 2017-01: $11.49 per share

- 2017-02: $11.85 per share

- 2017-03: $12.84 per share

- 2017-04: $14.49 per share

- 2017-05: $15.52 per share

- 2017-06: $14.14 per share

- 2017-07: $15.95 per share

- 2017-08: $16.60 per share

- 2017-09: $18.50 per share

- 2017-10: $20.86 per share

- 2017-11: $19.23 per share

- 2017-12: $18.41 per share

- 2018-01: $19.15 per share

- 2018-02: $19.19 per share

- 2018-03: $20.32 per share

- 2018-04: $18.51 per share

- 2018-05: $19.82 per share

- 2018-06: $17.29 per share

- 2018-07: $19.06 per share

- 2018-08: $17.31 per share

- 2018-09: $15.17 per share

- 2018-10: $14.17 per share

- 2018-11: $15.70 per share

- 2018-12: $13.62 per share

- 2019-01: $16.96 per share

- 2019-02: $17.61 per share

- 2019-03: $17.90 per share

- 2019-04: $20.74 per share

- 2019-05: $17.46 per share

- 2019-06: $18.78 per share

- 2019-07: $20.86 per share

- 2019-08: $21.05 per share

- 2019-09: $23.11 per share

- 2019-10: $27.10 per share

- 2019-11: $26.68 per share

- 2019-12: $29.24 per share

- 2020-01: $29.82 per share

- 2020-02: $29.34 per share

- 2020-03: $24.00 per share

- 2020-04: $25.53 per share

- 2020-05: $27.37 per share

- 2020-06: $32.35 per share

- 2020-07: $37.72 per share

- 2020-08: $33.63 per share

- 2020-09: $33.18 per share

- 2020-10: $34.21 per share

- 2020-11: $45.27 per share

- 2020-12: $47.23 per share

- 2021-01: $48.39 per share

- 2021-02: $56.72 per share

- 2021-03: $59.52 per share

- 2021-04: $62.05 per share

- 2021-05: $64.99 per share

- 2021-06: $65.07 per share

- 2021-07: $63.74 per share

- 2021-08: $60.48 per share

- 2021-09: $56.92 per share

- 2021-10: $56.36 per share

- 2021-11: $67.99 per share

- 2021-12: $71.91 per share

- 2022-01: $58.99 per share

- 2022-02: $56.14 per share

- 2022-03: $53.76 per share

- 2022-04: $46.58 per share

- 2022-05: $52.00 per share

- 2022-06: $42.61 per share

- 2022-07: $50.05 per share

- 2022-08: $43.79 per share

- 2022-09: $36.60 per share

- 2022-10: $40.48 per share

- 2022-11: $47.24 per share

- 2022-12: $42.03 per share

- 2023-01: $50.01 per share

- 2023-02: $48.60 per share

- 2023-03: $53.01 per share

- 2023-04: $52.41 per share

- 2023-05: $61.67 per share

- 2023-06: $64.29 per share

- 2023-07: $71.85 per share

- 2023-08: $70.24 per share

- 2023-09: $62.68 per share

- 2023-10: $58.82 per share

- 2023-11: $71.59 per share

- 2023-12: $78.33 per share

- 2024-01: $82.52 per share

- 2024-02: $93.83 per share

- 2024-03: $97.16 per share

- 2024-04: $89.44 per share

- 2024-05: $93.24 per share

- 2024-06: $106.48 per share

- 2024-07: $92.12 per share

- 2024-08: $82.10 per share

- 2024-09: $81.61 per share

- 2024-10: $74.35 per share

- 2024-11: $73.88 per share

- 2024-12: $72.23 per share

- 2025-01: $81.05 per share

- 2025-02: $76.74 per share

- 2025-03: $72.70 per share

- 2025-04: $71.67 per share

- 2025-05: $80.79 per share

- 2025-06: $97.34 per share

- 2025-07: $94.84 per share

- 2025-08: $100.15 per share

- 2025-09: $133.90 per share

- 2025-10: $157.46 per share

- 2025-11: $156.00 per share

- 2025-12: $171.18 per share

- 2026-01: $233.46 per share

- 2026-02: $233.89 per share

- 2026-03: $213.66 per share

- 2026-04: $257.86 per share

- 2026-05: $318.18 per share

- 2026-06: $433.33 per share

- 2026-07: $293.02 per share

- 2026-08: $301.49 per share

- 2026-09: $328.51 per share

- 2026-10: $301.11 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $12.38 per share, central $15.18 per share, high $17.21 per share

- FY2018: low $16.92 per share, central $22.67 per share, high $26.15 per share

- FY2019: low $21.31 per share, central $29.03 per share, high $33.53 per share

- FY2020: low $25.21 per share, central $34.15 per share, high $39.35 per share

- FY2021: low $35.28 per share, central $48.80 per share, high $56.67 per share

- FY2022: low $40.77 per share, central $57.23 per share, high $66.82 per share

- FY2023: low $50.44 per share, central $71.88 per share, high $83.84 per share

- FY2024: low $45.91 per share, central $65.04 per share, high $75.71 per share

- FY2025: low $60.11 per share, central $85.55 per share, high $99.74 per share

- FY2026: low $75.57 per share, central $108.38 per share, high $126.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/707549/000070754926000037/lrcx-20260628.htm); period 2026-06-28, filed 2026-08-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.