# Stride (LRN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LRN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:57.067Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $83.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $100.48 per share, central $141.52 per share, high $166.14 per share. Buy at or below the central value $141.52 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:57.067Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.6% at the stated quote. About 14.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Positive operating margins follow a sustained upward trend (at least 90% explained, low residual variation), with no net losses or latest decline; improvement passes the margin-variation check

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.63×

- Sustained margin improvement: Yes

- Variation explained by rising trend: 94.3%

- Variation around the rising trend: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.01×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- FY2026: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.1%

- FY2018: 8.8%

- FY2019: 12.5%

- FY2020: 4.6%

- FY2021: 12.8%

- FY2022: 15.3%

- FY2023: 16.9%

- FY2024: 24.8%

- FY2025: 34.1%

- FY2026: 35.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.21×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1088.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.28×

- FY2023: 1.35×

- FY2024: 1.24×

- FY2025: 1.19×

- FY2026: 1.14×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.8% vs 34.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.23 to 5.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 50.0%

- Per-share value change: $5.71

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.16

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $285M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 34.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.01

- FY2018: $0.68

- FY2019: $0.91

- FY2020: $0.60

- FY2021: $1.71

- FY2022: $2.52

- FY2023: $2.97

- FY2024: $4.69

- FY2025: $5.95

- FY2026: $7.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.16×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -12.0%

- FY2018: -10.5%

- FY2019: -12.7%

- FY2020: -5.2%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -6.1%

- FY2023: -4.3%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -6.3%

- FY2026: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 49% since Aug 2025 · "Enrollment Drop, Compliance Allegations Fuel Stride (LRN) Shareholder Lawsuit-- Hagens Berman" (globenewswire.com, Nov 2025) · sales +4.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.005Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Stride Stock Teases Break Out After Q3 Earnings, Hiked Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b81159e9-1d4e-3f0e-89ac-6ae35ae3e8f5/stride-stock-teases-break-out.html))

- 2025-05-13: LRN Q1 Earnings Call: Enrollment Growth and Career Learning Fuel Guidance Upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lrn-q1-earnings-call-enrollment-120612728.html))

- 2025-08-05: Stride earnings beat by $0.53, revenue topped estimates ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/stride-earnings-beat-by-053-revenue-topped-estimates-4171608))

- 2025-10-30: Stride (LRN) Falls Hard to Lowest Level on Faulty Glitch, Slower Growth Forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stride-lrn-falls-hard-lowest-152533873.html))

- 2026-08-04: Stride’s (NYSE:LRN) Q2 CY2026: Beats On Revenue, Stock Soars ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stride-nyse-lrn-q2-cy2026-213211070.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm; observed 2026-08-05.

- FY2017: $889M 

- FY2018: $918M 

- FY2019: $1.0B 

- FY2020: $1.0B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.8B 

- FY2024: $2.0B 

- FY2025: $2.4B 

- FY2026: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm; observed 2026-08-05.

- FY2017: 37.3% 

- FY2018: 35.4% 

- FY2019: 34.7% 

- FY2020: 33.4% 

- FY2021: 34.8% 

- FY2022: 35.4% 

- FY2023: 35.2% 

- FY2024: 37.4% 

- FY2025: 39.2% 

- FY2026: 37.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in education & training services; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm (filed 2026-08-05); FY2026: revenue 2518081000; grossProfit 950600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.4% to 39.2% during 2024–26; it earns 14% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm (filed 2026-08-05); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.030676667133978222],[2018,0.08751464572755864],[2019,0.12455700206499784],[2020,0.04599357836289645],[2021,0.127579942925204],[2022,0.1525552653184215],[2023,0.168940604528966],[2024,0.2478840568972689],[2025,0.34131652342897517],[2026,0.35512826243885925]]; median 0.14006760412181274. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 35% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm (filed 2026-08-05); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3480699653817122],[2022,0.353641444127053],[2023,0.35217415441084426]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 188.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2174000; cash acquisitions 9063000; owner earnings 72557000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12490869247626005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 8743000; cash acquisitions 7274000; owner earnings 94137000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0772703612819614.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 48406000; cash acquisitions 13092000; owner earnings 60203000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.21746424596780892.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 44997000; cash acquisitions 167995000; owner earnings 51600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.255717054263566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 52263000; owner earnings 109265000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 67626000; owner earnings 137418000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 66548000; owner earnings 170677000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 61589000; owner earnings 252277000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 60010000; owner earnings 342600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm (filed 2026-08-05); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 78846000; owner earnings 385908000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,6928000],[2020,64000],[2021,748000],[2022,414000],[2023,13521000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm (filed 2026-08-05); FY2026: cash repurchases 188659000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LRN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.805 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 36.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.020179445862593605. Price 83.18; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.36962307815304185 → FY2026 8.153068307415642. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.84 per share

- 2016-11: $14.68 per share

- 2016-12: $17.16 per share

- 2017-01: $19.93 per share

- 2017-02: $17.86 per share

- 2017-03: $19.15 per share

- 2017-04: $18.85 per share

- 2017-05: $18.83 per share

- 2017-06: $17.92 per share

- 2017-07: $17.71 per share

- 2017-08: $17.92 per share

- 2017-09: $17.84 per share

- 2017-10: $16.22 per share

- 2017-11: $16.54 per share

- 2017-12: $15.90 per share

- 2018-01: $17.35 per share

- 2018-02: $14.93 per share

- 2018-03: $14.18 per share

- 2018-04: $15.30 per share

- 2018-05: $16.14 per share

- 2018-06: $16.37 per share

- 2018-07: $16.36 per share

- 2018-08: $16.56 per share

- 2018-09: $17.70 per share

- 2018-10: $21.41 per share

- 2018-11: $23.86 per share

- 2018-12: $24.79 per share

- 2019-01: $31.51 per share

- 2019-02: $32.04 per share

- 2019-03: $34.13 per share

- 2019-04: $30.12 per share

- 2019-05: $30.57 per share

- 2019-06: $30.41 per share

- 2019-07: $29.85 per share

- 2019-08: $26.35 per share

- 2019-09: $26.40 per share

- 2019-10: $19.79 per share

- 2019-11: $19.65 per share

- 2019-12: $20.35 per share

- 2020-01: $16.14 per share

- 2020-02: $19.88 per share

- 2020-03: $18.86 per share

- 2020-04: $22.71 per share

- 2020-05: $24.62 per share

- 2020-06: $27.24 per share

- 2020-07: $45.79 per share

- 2020-08: $37.21 per share

- 2020-09: $26.34 per share

- 2020-10: $23.87 per share

- 2020-11: $23.33 per share

- 2020-12: $21.23 per share

- 2021-01: $25.75 per share

- 2021-02: $24.05 per share

- 2021-03: $30.11 per share

- 2021-04: $28.63 per share

- 2021-05: $26.88 per share

- 2021-06: $32.13 per share

- 2021-07: $30.66 per share

- 2021-08: $34.24 per share

- 2021-09: $35.94 per share

- 2021-10: $35.50 per share

- 2021-11: $34.13 per share

- 2021-12: $33.33 per share

- 2022-01: $35.07 per share

- 2022-02: $33.58 per share

- 2022-03: $36.33 per share

- 2022-04: $39.30 per share

- 2022-05: $39.11 per share

- 2022-06: $40.79 per share

- 2022-07: $44.68 per share

- 2022-08: $38.14 per share

- 2022-09: $42.03 per share

- 2022-10: $33.51 per share

- 2022-11: $35.41 per share

- 2022-12: $31.28 per share

- 2023-01: $42.93 per share

- 2023-02: $42.47 per share

- 2023-03: $39.25 per share

- 2023-04: $42.96 per share

- 2023-05: $40.41 per share

- 2023-06: $37.23 per share

- 2023-07: $38.21 per share

- 2023-08: $42.49 per share

- 2023-09: $45.03 per share

- 2023-10: $54.98 per share

- 2023-11: $60.58 per share

- 2023-12: $59.37 per share

- 2024-01: $59.95 per share

- 2024-02: $59.75 per share

- 2024-03: $63.05 per share

- 2024-04: $66.75 per share

- 2024-05: $68.66 per share

- 2024-06: $70.50 per share

- 2024-07: $75.98 per share

- 2024-08: $82.34 per share

- 2024-09: $85.31 per share

- 2024-10: $93.28 per share

- 2024-11: $106.87 per share

- 2024-12: $103.93 per share

- 2025-01: $134.90 per share

- 2025-02: $136.80 per share

- 2025-03: $126.50 per share

- 2025-04: $142.25 per share

- 2025-05: $151.39 per share

- 2025-06: $145.19 per share

- 2025-07: $128.23 per share

- 2025-08: $163.19 per share

- 2025-09: $148.94 per share

- 2025-10: $68.04 per share

- 2025-11: $63.53 per share

- 2025-12: $64.93 per share

- 2026-01: $84.60 per share

- 2026-02: $84.38 per share

- 2026-03: $88.17 per share

- 2026-04: $97.16 per share

- 2026-05: $92.38 per share

- 2026-06: $86.24 per share

- 2026-07: $80.29 per share

- 2026-08: $86.69 per share

- 2026-09: $77.98 per share

- 2026-10: $83.18 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $12.61 per share, central $14.35 per share, high $16.66 per share

- FY2018: low $20.16 per share, central $22.94 per share, high $26.64 per share

- FY2019: low $16.07 per share, central $18.29 per share, high $21.24 per share

- FY2020: low $16.58 per share, central $18.87 per share, high $21.91 per share

- FY2021: low $28.52 per share, central $32.46 per share, high $37.69 per share

- FY2022: low $30.88 per share, central $35.14 per share, high $40.81 per share

- FY2023: low $33.42 per share, central $38.03 per share, high $44.16 per share

- FY2024: low $41.73 per share, central $47.48 per share, high $55.14 per share

- FY2025: low $50.44 per share, central $57.40 per share, high $66.66 per share

- FY2026: low $88.22 per share, central $124.26 per share, high $145.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1157408/000110465926090515/lrn-20260630x10k.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.