Margins varied 11.7% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 19.3%
- Worst year
- 16.4%
- Latest · 2026
- 19.9%
# Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LULU Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:58.260Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict A wonderful business at a fair price Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes. Share price: $99.09 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $248.88 per share, central $357.98 per share, high $418.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $357.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:58.260Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 28.1% at the stated quote. About 28.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 0 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.12× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.18× - FY2018: 0.17× - FY2019: 0.21× - FY2020: 0.18× - FY2021: 0.19× - FY2022: 0.21× - FY2023: 0.16× - FY2024: 0.22× - FY2025: 0.24× - FY2026: 0.20× ### moat: pass - ROIC, median of available years: 46.1% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 32.4% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.7% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 56.6% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 6.4% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 39.8% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 47.1% - FY2018: 50.4% - FY2019: 65.1% - FY2020: 37.3% - FY2021: 32.4% - FY2022: 49.4% - FY2023: 28.4% - FY2024: 45.1% - FY2025: 47.0% - FY2026: 32.7% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.6B - Net income, five-year total: $6.8B - Return on incremental invested capital: 37.4% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.3 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.2% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 0.79× - FY2024: 1.00× - FY2025: 1.00× - FY2026: 0.98× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 50.4% vs 45.1% - Per-share earnings: 1.90 to 13.26 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9% - Market cap gain: $11B - Cumulative retained earnings: $3.2B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 27.5% - Per-share value change: $11.36 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.90 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.26 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.59 - Average buyback yield: 1.9% - Buyback history: 10 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: $607M - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.1B - ROIC, first three-year median: 50.4% - ROIC, last three-year median: 45.1% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: $2.21 - FY2018: $1.90 - FY2019: $3.61 - FY2020: $4.93 - FY2021: $4.50 - FY2022: $7.49 - FY2023: $6.68 - FY2024: $12.20 - FY2025: $14.64 - FY2026: $13.26 ### accounting: pass - latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465 - Sloan accruals: -0.3% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.71× - Restructuring years, last five: 2 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.01× - Accounting red flags: 1 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -5.0% - FY2018: -11.5% - FY2019: -12.4% - FY2020: -1.1% - FY2021: -5.1% - FY2022: -8.4% - FY2023: -2.0% - FY2024: -10.5% - FY2025: -6.0% - FY2026: -0.3% ## Holders - [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Down 81% since Dec 2023 · "Lululemon’s (LULU) Brand Problems Force Another Steep Guidance Downgrade" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +4.9% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.343Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.1% a year for ten years - 2025-06-06: Lululemon Shares Tumble on Warning That Tariffs Will Hurt Profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b96e6075-2529-3238-aad2-8ed613a49ec5/lululemon-shares-tumble-on.html)) - 2025-07-22: Lululemon's China Cooldown And US Struggles Weigh On Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lululemons-china-cooldown-us-struggles-185145094.html)) - 2025-12-12: Lululemon Raises Full-Year Outlook; CEO Calvin McDonald to Step Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lululemon-raises-full-outlook-ceo-113001767.html)) - 2026-03-18: Lululemon Athletica Issues Weak Full-Year Earnings Outlook; Fourth-Quarter Revenue Unexpectedly Rises ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lululemon-athletica-issues-weak-full-102900259.html)) - 2026-06-04: Lululemon stock tanks after company trims full-year financial outlook, citing 'headwinds' ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/lululemon-stock-tanks-after-company-trims-full-year-financial-outlook-citing-headwinds-204115902.html)) - 2026-09-12: Lululemon’s (LULU) Brand Problems Force Another Steep Guidance Downgrade ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lululemon-lulu-brand-problems-force-161627412.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +4.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm; observed 2026-03-17. - FY2017: $2.3B - FY2018: $2.6B - FY2019: $3.3B - FY2020: $4.0B - FY2021: $4.4B - FY2022: $6.3B - FY2023: $8.1B - FY2024: $9.6B - FY2025: $11B - FY2026: $11B ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 56.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm; observed 2026-03-17. - FY2017: 51.2% - FY2018: 52.8% - FY2019: 55.2% - FY2020: 45.6% - FY2021: 56.0% - FY2022: 57.7% - FY2023: 55.4% - FY2024: 58.3% - FY2025: 59.2% - FY2026: 56.6% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Gets 71% of sales from the Americas; keeps 56.6 cents per sales dollar after product costs. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); FY2026: revenue 11102600000; grossProfit 6284132000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); apps. Our physical retail locations remain a key part of our growth strategy and we view them as a valuable tool in helping us build our brand and product line as well as enabling our omni-channel capabilities. We plan to continue to expand square footage and open new company-operated stores to support our growth objectives. Americas We have operated in the Americas for over 25 years. We opened our first ever store in Vancouver, Canada in 1998. In 2025, the net revenue we generated in the Americas represented 71% of our total net revenue. 2025 2024 (In thousands) Net revenue $ 7,847,044 $ 7,928,156 Net revenue change (1.0) % 3.9 % Our operations in the Americas are core to our business and we aim to maintain and grow our net revenue in this market through ongoing product innovation by increasing new style penetration, as well as improving our localized assortment by store and by market. We continue to build brand awareness through a product activation strategy which is aligned with our new product innovation, including leveraging our ambassadors. We also plan to continue to invest in our digital and omni-channel capabilities, relocate, optimize, and ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 56.6% to 59.2% during 2024–26; it earns 46.1% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.2%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 56.6%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.4712585799471292],[2018,0.5038428129462161],[2019,0.6511193900377688],[2020,0.37288493369155645],[2021,0.32385589881527105],[2022,0.4938068963363421],[2023,0.2840232069634048],[2024,0.45125377023978286],[2025,0.4699273427350258],[2026,0.3269989298329532]]; median 0.4605905564874043. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices It raised selected prices; gross margin fell 2.6 percentage points to 56.6%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); resence by adding 44 net new company-operated stores, contributing to an 11% increase in square footage. Company-operated store net revenue increased 1% and e-commerce net revenue increased 8%. Operating margin decreased 380 basis points and diluted earnings per share decreased by 9%, mainly due to the impact from increased tariff rates in the United States, and the removal of the de minimis provision. We have taken mitigating actions, including selective price increases and vendor negotiations; however, we do not expect these actions to fully offset these incremental costs, and we believe tariffs and de minimis changes will continue to adversely affect gross margin and income from operations in 2026. See "Import Tariffs" below for additional information. 27 Table of Contents Over the course of 2025, we repurchased 5.0 million shares for $1.2 billion, and in December 2025, our board of directors approved a $1.0 billion increase to our stock repurchase authorization. Priorities and actions We have experienced declining revenue trends in North America and have developed an action plan to drive improvement in t [Separate filing excerpt] es, selective price increases, and supply chain initiatives. Financial Highlights The summary below compares 2025 to 2024: •Net revenue increased 5% to $11.1 billion. •Comparable sales increased 2%. –Americas comparable sales decreased 3%. –China Mainland comparable sales increased 20%, or 19% on a constant dollar basis. –Rest of World comparable sales increased 9%, or 7% on a constant dollar basis. •Gross profit was consistent at $6.3 billion. •Gross margin decreased 260 basis points to 56.6%. •Income from operations decreased 12% to $2.2 billion. 28 Table of Contents •Operating margin decreased 380 basis points to 19.9%. •Income tax expense decreased 13% to $659.8 million. Our effective tax rate for 2025 was 29.5% compared to 29.6% for 2024. •Diluted earnings per share were $13.26 for 2025 compared to $14.64 in 2024. Market Conditions and Trends Segment Trends Net revenue in the Americas decreased 1% and comparable sales in the Americas decreased 3%. We experienced lower conversion rates, store traffic, and average order value in the Americas, partially reflective of certain product categories, including core categories, experien ### Where the cash goes Bought back shares 26.1% below our value in 2026; reinvests 9.8% of cash earnings. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2017: growth capex 45790203.65960735; upkeep 103720796.34039265; owner earnings 287357203.65960735. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15934941973422292. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2018: growth capex 49629000; upkeep 108235000; owner earnings 258662000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19186815226047893. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2019: growth capex 103323000; upkeep 122484000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 483801000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.21356508151078646. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2020: growth capex 116657270.08871597; upkeep 166390729.91128403; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 601689270.088716. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1938829157972444. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2021: growth capex 43748000; upkeep 185478000; cash acquisitions 452581000; owner earnings 588913000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8427883235724122. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2022: growth capex 170296000; upkeep 224206000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 975322000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.17460489971517099. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2023: growth capex 446478385.20472014; upkeep 192178614.79527986; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 671373385.2047201. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6650224674434728. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2024: growth capex 272481000; upkeep 379384000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1550190000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1757726472238887. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); FY2025: growth capex 242708000; upkeep 446524000; cash acquisitions 154146000; owner earnings 1814616000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.21869861171729996. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); FY2026: growth capex 151973170.70331722; upkeep 528828829.2966828; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1546582170.7033172. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09826388379623344. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); Incremental return on capital 0.374342004336922, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,23905000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); 5 5,116 5,116 $ — 116,166 $ 581 $ 638,190 $ 4,109,717 $ (424,441) $ 4,324,047 Net income 1,579,183 1,579,183 Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax 193,751 193,751 Stock-based compensation expense 62,203 62,203 Common stock issued upon settlement of stock-based compensation 276 1 8,376 8,377 Shares withheld related to net share settlement of stock-based compensation (98) — (27,372) (27,372) Repurchase of common stock, including excise tax (4,964) (25) (12,005) (1,166,319) (1,178,349) Balance as of February 1, 2026 5,116 5,116 $ — 111,380 $ 557 $ 669,392 $ 4,522,581 $ (230,690) $ 4,961,840 See accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements 46 Table of Contents lululemon athletica inc. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (Amounts in thousands) Fiscal Year Ended February 1, 2026 February 2, 2025 January 28, 2024 Cash flows from operating activities Net income $ 1,579,183 $ 1,814,616 $ 1,550,190 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 496,228 446,524 379,384 lululemon Studio obsolescence provision — — 23,709 Impairment of assets and restru FY2026: paid/share 237.3789282836422 USD; our historic value/share 321.2144153430341 USD; premium -0.26099540697717927. Historic values use today's bond yield and FX, not a point-in-time investment signal. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 4.6% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LULU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.5809999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it "Disruptions of our supply chain" (SEC filing, Mar 2026) - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-17); Disruptions of our supply chain ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 22.6%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.2051457474156862. Price 99.09; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.6889086413352572 → FY2026 12.989066505722084. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $57.25 per share - 2016-11: $56.99 per share - 2016-12: $64.99 per share - 2017-01: $67.51 per share - 2017-02: $65.26 per share - 2017-03: $51.87 per share - 2017-04: $52.00 per share - 2017-05: $48.27 per share - 2017-06: $59.67 per share - 2017-07: $61.64 per share - 2017-08: $57.55 per share - 2017-09: $62.25 per share - 2017-10: $61.51 per share - 2017-11: $66.96 per share - 2017-12: $78.59 per share - 2018-01: $78.21 per share - 2018-02: $81.10 per share - 2018-03: $89.12 per share - 2018-04: $99.80 per share - 2018-05: $105.05 per share - 2018-06: $124.85 per share - 2018-07: $119.95 per share - 2018-08: $154.93 per share - 2018-09: $162.49 per share - 2018-10: $140.73 per share - 2018-11: $132.55 per share - 2018-12: $121.61 per share - 2019-01: $147.81 per share - 2019-02: $150.42 per share - 2019-03: $163.87 per share - 2019-04: $176.35 per share - 2019-05: $165.59 per share - 2019-06: $180.21 per share - 2019-07: $191.09 per share - 2019-08: $184.67 per share - 2019-09: $192.53 per share - 2019-10: $204.27 per share - 2019-11: $225.69 per share - 2019-12: $231.67 per share - 2020-01: $239.39 per share - 2020-02: $217.41 per share - 2020-03: $189.55 per share - 2020-04: $223.48 per share - 2020-05: $300.10 per share - 2020-06: $312.01 per share - 2020-07: $325.59 per share - 2020-08: $375.67 per share - 2020-09: $329.37 per share - 2020-10: $319.29 per share - 2020-11: $370.22 per share - 2020-12: $348.03 per share - 2021-01: $328.68 per share - 2021-02: $311.68 per share - 2021-03: $306.71 per share - 2021-04: $335.27 per share - 2021-05: $323.13 per share - 2021-06: $364.97 per share - 2021-07: $400.17 per share - 2021-08: $400.17 per share - 2021-09: $404.70 per share - 2021-10: $466.01 per share - 2021-11: $454.41 per share - 2021-12: $391.45 per share - 2022-01: $333.76 per share - 2022-02: $319.94 per share - 2022-03: $365.23 per share - 2022-04: $354.63 per share - 2022-05: $292.69 per share - 2022-06: $272.61 per share - 2022-07: $310.51 per share - 2022-08: $299.96 per share - 2022-09: $279.56 per share - 2022-10: $329.04 per share - 2022-11: $380.31 per share - 2022-12: $320.38 per share - 2023-01: $306.88 per share - 2023-02: $309.20 per share - 2023-03: $364.19 per share - 2023-04: $379.93 per share - 2023-05: $331.93 per share - 2023-06: $378.50 per share - 2023-07: $378.53 per share - 2023-08: $381.26 per share - 2023-09: $385.61 per share - 2023-10: $393.48 per share - 2023-11: $446.80 per share - 2023-12: $511.29 per share - 2024-01: $453.82 per share - 2024-02: $467.09 per share - 2024-03: $390.65 per share - 2024-04: $360.60 per share - 2024-05: $311.99 per share - 2024-06: $298.70 per share - 2024-07: $258.66 per share - 2024-08: $259.47 per share - 2024-09: $271.35 per share - 2024-10: $297.90 per share - 2024-11: $320.66 per share - 2024-12: $382.41 per share - 2025-01: $414.20 per share - 2025-02: $365.61 per share - 2025-03: $283.06 per share - 2025-04: $270.77 per share - 2025-05: $316.67 per share - 2025-06: $237.58 per share - 2025-07: $200.53 per share - 2025-08: $202.20 per share - 2025-09: $177.93 per share - 2025-10: $170.54 per share - 2025-11: $184.18 per share - 2025-12: $207.81 per share - 2026-01: $174.50 per share - 2026-02: $185.17 per share - 2026-03: $153.10 per share - 2026-04: $137.70 per share - 2026-05: $131.18 per share - 2026-06: $114.18 per share - 2026-07: $118.87 per share - 2026-08: $120.26 per share - 2026-09: $96.19 per share - 2026-10: $99.09 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2017: low $35.40 per share, central $49.34 per share, high $57.12 per share - FY2018: low $39.46 per share, central $54.40 per share, high $62.74 per share - FY2019: low $47.19 per share, central $66.05 per share, high $76.57 per share - FY2020: low $56.76 per share, central $78.46 per share, high $91.09 per share - FY2021: low $73.46 per share, central $103.44 per share, high $120.16 per share - FY2022: low $111.30 per share, central $158.36 per share, high $184.61 per share - FY2023: low $141.36 per share, central $200.14 per share, high $233.78 per share - FY2024: low $182.37 per share, central $258.63 per share, high $301.16 per share - FY2025: low $195.36 per share, central $272.95 per share, high $318.12 per share - FY2026: low $224.38 per share, central $321.21 per share, high $375.22 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397187/000139718726000020/lulu-20260201.htm); period 2026-02-01, filed 2026-03-17. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
LULU · US
S&P 500
A wonderful business at a fair price
Passes the quality tests.
Margins varied 11.7% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 46.1% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 32.4% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.97 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 1.9 to 13.26, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -0.3% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 19.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 13.28 USD.
| Value range | $248.88 – $418.83 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $357.98 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 99.09 / 357.98 = 72.3% |
| Return / year | About 28.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 16.38/share; 12.0% growth fades over 10 years to 3.0%; excess cash USD 11.06/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |