# Lumen Technologies (LUMN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LUMN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:58.646Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $4.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 8 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 8

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 5.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.13×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: -0.66×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: -0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -8.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 54.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.5%

- FY2017: 6.7%

- FY2018: 1.6%

- FY2019: -8.1%

- FY2020: 3.0%

- FY2021: 12.1%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: -43.2%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: -4.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$12B

- Net income, five-year total: -$12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.7%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $3.2B

- FY2022: -$1.3B

- FY2023: -$10B

- FY2024: -$330M

- FY2025: -$3.4B

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.7% vs -4.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.58 to -1.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: -$5.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$20B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$3.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $7.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -4.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.16

- FY2017: $2.21

- FY2018: -$1.63

- FY2019: -$4.92

- FY2020: -$1.14

- FY2021: $1.91

- FY2022: -$1.54

- FY2023: -$10.48

- FY2024: -$0.06

- FY2025: -$1.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -18.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.5%

- FY2017: -3.3%

- FY2018: -12.5%

- FY2019: -18.5%

- FY2020: -13.1%

- FY2021: -7.7%

- FY2022: -13.8%

- FY2023: -36.6%

- FY2024: -13.1%

- FY2025: -18.9%

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 61% since Dec 2021 · "Verizon Posts $5 Billion Profit While Lumen Loses $621 Million Chasing AI Infrastructure" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales -4.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.418Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-01: Lumen beats quarterly revenue estimates on AI driven demand for connectivity ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumen-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-200328808.html))

- 2025-08-28: Lumen (LUMN) Climbs 12% as Pac-12 Partnership Redefines Sports Broadcasting ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumen-lumn-climbs-12-pac-152010778.html))

- 2025-09-22: Lumen accelerates multi-billion-dollar network expansion to meet soaring AI demand ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4497088-lumen-accelerates-multi-billion-dollar-network-expansion-to-meet-soaring-ai-demand?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-27: Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Soars 17% on Multi-Million Dollar Palantir Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumen-technologies-lumn-soars-17-111357749.html))

- 2025-12-05: Verizon Posts $5 Billion Profit While Lumen Loses $621 Million Chasing AI Infrastructure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verizon-posts-5-billion-profit-181509656.html))

- 2026-05-05: Lumen beats quarterly revenue estimates, to acquire Alkira for $475 million ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lumen-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-200410852.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18926/000001892626000014/lumn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: $18B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $21B 

- FY2020: $21B 

- FY2021: $20B 

- FY2022: $17B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $13B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18926/000001892626000014/lumn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 55.5% 

- FY2017: 53.5% 

- FY2018: 53.7% 

- FY2019: 57.4% 

- FY2020: 56.9% 

- FY2021: 56.9% 

- FY2022: 55.0% 

- FY2023: 50.9% 

- FY2024: 48.9% 

- FY2025: 46.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are USD 12.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18926/000001892626000014/lumn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 12402000000; grossProfit 5764000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LUMN.US: Lumen Technologies, Inc., a networking company, provides integrated products and services to business and mass customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers dark fiber and conduit, edge cloud, internet protocol (IP), voice over IP, managed security, software-defined wide area networks, unified communications and collaboration, and optical services; ethernet and VPN data networks services; and legacy services to manage cash flow, including time division multiplexing voice and private line; other legacy services, such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) based ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services; and managed and professional service solutions, as well as sells communications equipment. The company also provides high speed and lower speed broadband service to residential and small business customers; local and long-distance voice services, professional services, and other ancillary services; and federal broadband and state support programs. It serves its products and services under the Lumen, CenturyLink, Black Lotus Labs, and Quantum Fiber brand name. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.5% to 50.9% during 2023–25; it earns 2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 50.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18926/000001892626000014/lumn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.11465380249716231],[2017,0.06654300950614421],[2018,0.016452320058458165],[2019,-0.0806720359617906],[2020,0.029798462986198242],[2021,0.12119994583472711],[2022,0.004063345966432052],[2023,-0.43227861832714815],[2024,0.023103820967639393],[2025,-0.04115480849425804]]; median 0.01977807051304878. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2981000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1561000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3106000000; cash acquisitions 7289000000; owner earnings 2219000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.284812978819288.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3175000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 212000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2900000000; owner earnings 3152000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,1167000000],[2017,1453000000],[2018,2312000000],[2019,1100000000],[2020,1109000000],[2021,1087000000],[2022,780000000],[2023,11000000],[2024,3000000],[2025,1000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LUMN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 8.025 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 0.4 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Closing price 4.87 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 12.469986365665608; price multiple 0.39053771649733915. FY2025 cash earnings/share -3.3754026954958434. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.58 per share

- 2016-11: $23.52 per share

- 2016-12: $23.78 per share

- 2017-01: $25.86 per share

- 2017-02: $24.26 per share

- 2017-03: $23.57 per share

- 2017-04: $25.67 per share

- 2017-05: $24.95 per share

- 2017-06: $23.88 per share

- 2017-07: $23.27 per share

- 2017-08: $19.72 per share

- 2017-09: $18.90 per share

- 2017-10: $18.99 per share

- 2017-11: $14.59 per share

- 2017-12: $16.68 per share

- 2018-01: $17.81 per share

- 2018-02: $17.67 per share

- 2018-03: $16.43 per share

- 2018-04: $18.58 per share

- 2018-05: $18.22 per share

- 2018-06: $18.64 per share

- 2018-07: $18.77 per share

- 2018-08: $21.36 per share

- 2018-09: $21.20 per share

- 2018-10: $20.64 per share

- 2018-11: $18.80 per share

- 2018-12: $15.15 per share

- 2019-01: $15.32 per share

- 2019-02: $13.19 per share

- 2019-03: $11.99 per share

- 2019-04: $11.42 per share

- 2019-05: $10.45 per share

- 2019-06: $11.76 per share

- 2019-07: $12.09 per share

- 2019-08: $11.38 per share

- 2019-09: $12.48 per share

- 2019-10: $12.94 per share

- 2019-11: $14.49 per share

- 2019-12: $13.21 per share

- 2020-01: $13.66 per share

- 2020-02: $12.07 per share

- 2020-03: $9.46 per share

- 2020-04: $10.62 per share

- 2020-05: $9.83 per share

- 2020-06: $10.03 per share

- 2020-07: $9.65 per share

- 2020-08: $10.75 per share

- 2020-09: $10.09 per share

- 2020-10: $8.62 per share

- 2020-11: $10.45 per share

- 2020-12: $9.75 per share

- 2021-01: $12.38 per share

- 2021-02: $12.29 per share

- 2021-03: $13.35 per share

- 2021-04: $12.83 per share

- 2021-05: $13.84 per share

- 2021-06: $13.59 per share

- 2021-07: $12.47 per share

- 2021-08: $12.30 per share

- 2021-09: $12.39 per share

- 2021-10: $11.86 per share

- 2021-11: $12.34 per share

- 2021-12: $12.55 per share

- 2022-01: $12.36 per share

- 2022-02: $10.36 per share

- 2022-03: $11.27 per share

- 2022-04: $10.06 per share

- 2022-05: $12.24 per share

- 2022-06: $10.91 per share

- 2022-07: $10.89 per share

- 2022-08: $9.96 per share

- 2022-09: $7.28 per share

- 2022-10: $7.36 per share

- 2022-11: $5.47 per share

- 2022-12: $5.22 per share

- 2023-01: $5.25 per share

- 2023-02: $3.40 per share

- 2023-03: $2.65 per share

- 2023-04: $2.37 per share

- 2023-05: $1.98 per share

- 2023-06: $2.26 per share

- 2023-07: $1.79 per share

- 2023-08: $1.59 per share

- 2023-09: $1.42 per share

- 2023-10: $1.46 per share

- 2023-11: $1.31 per share

- 2023-12: $1.83 per share

- 2024-01: $1.22 per share

- 2024-02: $1.62 per share

- 2024-03: $1.56 per share

- 2024-04: $1.19 per share

- 2024-05: $1.29 per share

- 2024-06: $1.10 per share

- 2024-07: $3.15 per share

- 2024-08: $5.25 per share

- 2024-09: $7.10 per share

- 2024-10: $6.39 per share

- 2024-11: $7.34 per share

- 2024-12: $5.31 per share

- 2025-01: $4.94 per share

- 2025-02: $4.72 per share

- 2025-03: $3.92 per share

- 2025-04: $3.54 per share

- 2025-05: $3.92 per share

- 2025-06: $4.38 per share

- 2025-07: $4.45 per share

- 2025-08: $4.97 per share

- 2025-09: $6.12 per share

- 2025-10: $10.28 per share

- 2025-11: $8.11 per share

- 2025-12: $7.77 per share

- 2026-01: $8.82 per share

- 2026-02: $7.11 per share

- 2026-03: $6.95 per share

- 2026-04: $8.84 per share

- 2026-05: $10.99 per share

- 2026-06: $7.68 per share

- 2026-07: $6.38 per share

- 2026-08: $6.25 per share

- 2026-09: $5.60 per share

- 2026-10: $4.87 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $42.17 per share, central $47.98 per share, high $55.72 per share

- FY2017: low $36.97 per share, central $42.02 per share, high $48.75 per share

- FY2018: low $28.72 per share, central $32.68 per share, high $37.95 per share

- FY2019: low $20.74 per share, central $23.44 per share, high $27.03 per share

- FY2020: low $1.90 per share, central $2.16 per share, high $2.51 per share

- FY2021: low $1.82 per share, central $2.08 per share, high $2.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18926/000001892626000014/lumn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.