# Lamb Weston Holdings (LW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:59.453Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $54.21 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $33.43 per share, central $40.12 per share, high $46.69 per share. Buy at or below the central value $40.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:59.453Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 21.8%

- FY2018: 24.4%

- FY2019: 24.9%

- FY2020: 19.9%

- FY2021: 17.4%

- FY2022: 14.4%

- FY2023: 17.6%

- FY2024: 17.8%

- FY2025: 9.9%

- FY2026: 8.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.22×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 0.35×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.4% vs 9.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.23 to 2.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: -$773M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 1.5%

- Per-share value change: $0.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.50

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $245M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.23

- FY2018: $2.84

- FY2019: $3.25

- FY2020: $2.49

- FY2021: $2.16

- FY2022: $1.38

- FY2023: $6.95

- FY2024: $4.98

- FY2025: $2.50

- FY2026: $2.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.68×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.8%

- FY2018: -2.3%

- FY2019: -6.6%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -6.1%

- FY2022: -8.5%

- FY2023: 9.1%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: -6.9%

- FY2026: -8.8%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 53% since Jun 2023 · "Lamb Weston Warns of Profit Pressure Ahead Due to Discounts, Rising Costs" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales +2.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.703Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-23: Lamb Weston's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Rise 4% Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lamb-westons-q4-earnings-beat-165200417.html))

- 2025-10-01: Lamb Weston's Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Volume Rises 6% Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lamb-westons-q1-earnings-beat-125500682.html))

- 2025-12-22: Lamb Weston (LW): Reassessing Valuation After Earnings Beat, Weak Guidance and Margin Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lamb-weston-lw-reassessing-valuation-011112329.html))

- 2026-02-19: Lamb Weston Earnings Beat Sparks Questions On Fries Demand And Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lamb-weston-earnings-beat-sparks-082053527.html))

- 2026-07-27: Lamb Weston (LW) Lifts Earnings Outlook Despite Middle East Disruptions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lamb-weston-lw-lifts-earnings-220812911.html))

- 2026-08-12: Lamb Weston Q4 Volume Jumps 7% as Margin Pressure Tests FY27 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lamb-weston-q4-volume-jumps-153600244.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm; observed 2026-07-24.

- FY2017: $3.2B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.8B 

- FY2020: $3.8B 

- FY2021: $3.7B 

- FY2022: $4.1B 

- FY2023: $5.4B 

- FY2024: $6.5B 

- FY2025: $6.5B 

- FY2026: $6.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 20.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm; observed 2026-07-24.

- FY2017: 24.6% 

- FY2018: 25.7% 

- FY2019: 26.7% 

- FY2020: 23.6% 

- FY2021: 22.7% 

- FY2022: 20.3% 

- FY2023: 26.8% 

- FY2024: 27.3% 

- FY2025: 21.7% 

- FY2026: 20.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 6.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); FY2026: revenue 6612300000; grossProfit 1359700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LW.US: Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and marketing of frozen potato products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company offers frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients, and appetizers under the Lamb Weston brand, as well as under various customer labels. It also provides its products under its owned or licensed brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, and other licensed brands, as well as under retailers' own brands. It sells its products through a network of internal sales personnel and independent brokers, agents, and distributors to quick service and full-service restaurants and chains, wholesale, grocery, mass merchants, club retailers, non-commercial channels, and specialty retailers, as well as foodservice distributors and institutions, including businesses, educational institutions, independent restaurants, regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.6% to 27.3% during 2024–26; it earns 17.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 20.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.21760244066278553],[2018,0.2438267669428845],[2019,0.24932562648748052],[2020,0.1990555296458354],[2021,0.17357579508924723],[2022,0.14435936002142624],[2023,0.1759502740604387],[2024,0.17779140149644213],[2025,0.09908955215629692],[2026,0.08900036439965171]]; median 0.17687083777844043. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Price/mix declined 6%, reflecting new contract prices and the carryover impact of fiscal 2025 customer support.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); Sales volume increased 9% compared to the prior year driven by strong customer retention and contract wins in fiscal 2026. Price/mix declined 6%, reflecting new contract prices and the carryover impact of fiscal 2025 customer support. Fiscal 2026 also benefited $86.4 million from the 53rd week in the fiscal year.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 2.1% of cash earnings; earns 7.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2017: growth capex 61894145.166220546; upkeep 225505854.83377945; owner earnings 210494145.16622055. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2940421222516413.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2018: growth capex 93903777.1696417; upkeep 212896222.8303583; owner earnings 347203777.16964173. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.27045724541113175.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2019: growth capex 128616540.4879551; upkeep 205583459.5120449; cash acquisitions 88600000; owner earnings 435416540.4879551. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4988706681756476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2020: growth capex 14638637.03321284; upkeep 319561362.96678716; cash acquisitions 116700000; owner earnings 228638637.03321284. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5744376310909085.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 167700000; owner earnings 337900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 147200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 245800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2023: growth capex 67300000; upkeep 222800000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1008900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06670631380711667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2024: growth capex 547692134.0099066; upkeep 381807865.99009335; cash acquisitions 10500000; owner earnings 650492134.0099066. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.858107431013771.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 638200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 126500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); FY2026: growth capex 6000000; upkeep 396700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 290000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.020689655172413793.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); Incremental return on capital 0.07055663436214321, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,850900000],[2018,110200000],[2019,113300000],[2020,113300000],[2021,121300000],[2022,135300000],[2023,138400000],[2024,174000000],[2025,206900000],[2026,207500000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 122800000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.749 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

In fiscal 2026, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm (filed 2026-07-24); 4 Table of Contents A relatively limited number of customers account for a large percentage of our consolidated net sales. In fiscal 2026, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales. Our largest customer, McDonald’s Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 15%, and 14% of our consolidated net sales in fiscal 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07333859206869756. Price 54.21; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.728020752723361 → FY2026 2.0848310567936736. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $33.48 per share

- 2016-12: $37.85 per share

- 2017-01: $37.36 per share

- 2017-02: $39.19 per share

- 2017-03: $42.06 per share

- 2017-04: $41.75 per share

- 2017-05: $46.41 per share

- 2017-06: $44.04 per share

- 2017-07: $43.98 per share

- 2017-08: $45.48 per share

- 2017-09: $46.89 per share

- 2017-10: $50.99 per share

- 2017-11: $54.37 per share

- 2017-12: $56.45 per share

- 2018-01: $58.60 per share

- 2018-02: $54.09 per share

- 2018-03: $58.22 per share

- 2018-04: $65.32 per share

- 2018-05: $63.75 per share

- 2018-06: $68.51 per share

- 2018-07: $70.27 per share

- 2018-08: $67.60 per share

- 2018-09: $66.60 per share

- 2018-10: $78.16 per share

- 2018-11: $76.70 per share

- 2018-12: $73.56 per share

- 2019-01: $72.30 per share

- 2019-02: $69.31 per share

- 2019-03: $74.94 per share

- 2019-04: $70.05 per share

- 2019-05: $59.25 per share

- 2019-06: $63.36 per share

- 2019-07: $67.12 per share

- 2019-08: $70.39 per share

- 2019-09: $72.72 per share

- 2019-10: $78.04 per share

- 2019-11: $83.98 per share

- 2019-12: $86.03 per share

- 2020-01: $91.31 per share

- 2020-02: $86.89 per share

- 2020-03: $57.10 per share

- 2020-04: $61.36 per share

- 2020-05: $60.06 per share

- 2020-06: $63.93 per share

- 2020-07: $60.08 per share

- 2020-08: $62.85 per share

- 2020-09: $66.27 per share

- 2020-10: $63.45 per share

- 2020-11: $72.38 per share

- 2020-12: $78.74 per share

- 2021-01: $74.70 per share

- 2021-02: $79.77 per share

- 2021-03: $77.48 per share

- 2021-04: $80.50 per share

- 2021-05: $82.49 per share

- 2021-06: $80.66 per share

- 2021-07: $66.77 per share

- 2021-08: $65.15 per share

- 2021-09: $61.37 per share

- 2021-10: $56.45 per share

- 2021-11: $51.92 per share

- 2021-12: $63.38 per share

- 2022-01: $64.21 per share

- 2022-02: $66.43 per share

- 2022-03: $59.91 per share

- 2022-04: $66.10 per share

- 2022-05: $67.58 per share

- 2022-06: $71.46 per share

- 2022-07: $79.66 per share

- 2022-08: $79.53 per share

- 2022-09: $77.38 per share

- 2022-10: $86.22 per share

- 2022-11: $86.90 per share

- 2022-12: $89.36 per share

- 2023-01: $99.89 per share

- 2023-02: $100.64 per share

- 2023-03: $104.52 per share

- 2023-04: $111.81 per share

- 2023-05: $111.20 per share

- 2023-06: $114.95 per share

- 2023-07: $103.63 per share

- 2023-08: $97.41 per share

- 2023-09: $92.46 per share

- 2023-10: $89.80 per share

- 2023-11: $100.03 per share

- 2023-12: $108.09 per share

- 2024-01: $102.44 per share

- 2024-02: $102.21 per share

- 2024-03: $106.53 per share

- 2024-04: $83.34 per share

- 2024-05: $88.29 per share

- 2024-06: $84.08 per share

- 2024-07: $60.02 per share

- 2024-08: $61.92 per share

- 2024-09: $64.74 per share

- 2024-10: $77.69 per share

- 2024-11: $77.24 per share

- 2024-12: $66.83 per share

- 2025-01: $59.94 per share

- 2025-02: $51.87 per share

- 2025-03: $53.30 per share

- 2025-04: $52.81 per share

- 2025-05: $55.78 per share

- 2025-06: $51.85 per share

- 2025-07: $57.07 per share

- 2025-08: $57.53 per share

- 2025-09: $58.08 per share

- 2025-10: $61.73 per share

- 2025-11: $59.06 per share

- 2025-12: $41.89 per share

- 2026-01: $45.93 per share

- 2026-02: $48.19 per share

- 2026-03: $42.26 per share

- 2026-04: $43.55 per share

- 2026-05: $43.18 per share

- 2026-06: $43.18 per share

- 2026-07: $52.55 per share

- 2026-08: $54.53 per share

- 2026-09: $41.69 per share

- 2026-10: $54.21 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $19.90 per share, central $22.65 per share, high $26.30 per share

- FY2018: low $21.45 per share, central $24.41 per share, high $28.35 per share

- FY2019: low $25.57 per share, central $29.09 per share, high $33.79 per share

- FY2020: low $32.50 per share, central $35.78 per share, high $40.14 per share

- FY2021: low $29.93 per share, central $33.40 per share, high $38.00 per share

- FY2022: low $31.30 per share, central $35.20 per share, high $40.39 per share

- FY2023: low $46.07 per share, central $63.22 per share, high $73.92 per share

- FY2024: low $55.59 per share, central $79.41 per share, high $93.28 per share

- FY2025: low $45.49 per share, central $51.76 per share, high $60.11 per share

- FY2026: low $32.81 per share, central $39.43 per share, high $45.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679273/000167927326000026/lw-20260531.htm); period 2026-05-31, filed 2026-07-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.