# LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LYB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:00.346Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $62.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $60.56 per share, central $68.06 per share, high $78.03 per share. Buy at or below the central value $68.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:00.346Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.7% at the stated quote. About 10.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.61×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: -0.01×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.8%

- FY2017: 34.3%

- FY2018: 27.9%

- FY2019: 18.5%

- FY2020: 7.4%

- FY2021: 25.4%

- FY2022: 19.1%

- FY2023: 11.8%

- FY2024: 7.6%

- FY2025: -1.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -106.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 1.66×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.8% vs 7.6%

- Per-share earnings: 10.04 to 4.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: -$21B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$5.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -10.4%

- Per-share value change: -$5.86

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $10.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.53

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $30B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $9.43

- FY2017: $12.35

- FY2018: $12.29

- FY2019: $10.21

- FY2020: $4.25

- FY2021: $16.80

- FY2022: $11.84

- FY2023: $6.48

- FY2024: $4.17

- FY2025: -$2.31

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.6%

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: -5.2%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -8.8%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Ron Muhlenkamp](https://gigainvestors.com/MUHL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 45% since May 2022 · "Polymer margins weakened during 2025 as increased import competition created unfavorable market conditions." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.929Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: Chemical maker LyondellBasell misses quarterly profit estimates on weak volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chemical-maker-lyondellbasell-misses-quarterly-122043847.html))

- 2026-01-31: LyondellBasell Cash Gains And European Exits Reframe Risk Reward Profile ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lyondellbasell-cash-gains-european-exits-144422508.html))

- 2026-02-20: LyondellBasell slashes dividend as chemicals downturn pressures cash flows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lyondellbasell-slashes-dividend-chemicals-downturn-125353029.html))

- 2026-03-09: LyondellBasell to Benefit From Olefins and Polyolefins Recovery, Cost Cuts, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lyondellbasell-benefit-olefins-polyolefins-recovery-154200649.html))

- 2026-05-01: LYB Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Volume Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lyb-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-132300099.html))

- 2026-09-30: Citi cautious on Dow and LyondellBasell: demand weakness caps polyethylene upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/citi-cautious-dow-lyondellbasell-demand-145435439.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: $34B 

- FY2018: $39B 

- FY2019: $35B 

- FY2020: $28B 

- FY2021: $46B 

- FY2022: $50B 

- FY2023: $41B 

- FY2024: $40B 

- FY2025: $30B 

- FY2026: $31B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 20.5% 

- FY2017: 18.6% 

- FY2018: 16.6% 

- FY2019: 15.6% 

- FY2020: 12.2% 

- FY2021: 19.0% 

- FY2022: 13.1% 

- FY2023: 12.8% 

- FY2024: 11.3% 

- FY2025: 9.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are USD 30.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 30153000000; grossProfit 2715000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LYB.US: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins"Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins"Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9% to 12.8% during 2023–25; it earns 18.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.29808641483486253],[2017,0.34342127134139105],[2018,0.2786482997697384],[2019,0.18540295197287804],[2020,0.07408991540728067],[2021,0.2539354766457924],[2022,0.19067399393814846],[2023,0.11825197457436377],[2024,0.07555186438748292],[2025,-0.011802896696669255]]; median 0.18803847295551324. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 201 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2243000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2657000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 373000000; upkeep 1174000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 4879000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07645009223201475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 864000000; upkeep 1241000000; cash acquisitions 1776000000; owner earnings 4688000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5631399317406144.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2694000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2008000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1947000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 858000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 566000000; upkeep 1393000000; owner earnings 5610000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10089126559714795.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 623000000; upkeep 1267000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3882000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16048428645028337.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1531000000; cash acquisitions 102000000; owner earnings 2117000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.048181388757675955.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1839000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1043000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,1395000000],[2017,1415000000],[2018,1554000000],[2019,1462000000],[2020,1405000000],[2021,1486000000],[2022,3246000000],[2023,1610000000],[2024,1720000000],[2025,1764000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 201000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LYB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 20.122 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Many of our businesses depend on our intellectual property." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Many of our businesses depend on our intellectual property.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.016194844652831553. Price 62.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 9.154708520179373 → FY2025 -3.8229813664596275. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $79.55 per share

- 2016-11: $90.32 per share

- 2016-12: $85.78 per share

- 2017-01: $93.27 per share

- 2017-02: $91.24 per share

- 2017-03: $91.19 per share

- 2017-04: $84.76 per share

- 2017-05: $80.52 per share

- 2017-06: $84.39 per share

- 2017-07: $90.09 per share

- 2017-08: $90.59 per share

- 2017-09: $99.05 per share

- 2017-10: $103.53 per share

- 2017-11: $104.70 per share

- 2017-12: $110.32 per share

- 2018-01: $119.84 per share

- 2018-02: $108.22 per share

- 2018-03: $105.68 per share

- 2018-04: $105.73 per share

- 2018-05: $112.12 per share

- 2018-06: $109.85 per share

- 2018-07: $110.79 per share

- 2018-08: $112.78 per share

- 2018-09: $102.51 per share

- 2018-10: $89.27 per share

- 2018-11: $93.31 per share

- 2018-12: $83.16 per share

- 2019-01: $86.97 per share

- 2019-02: $85.52 per share

- 2019-03: $84.08 per share

- 2019-04: $88.23 per share

- 2019-05: $74.25 per share

- 2019-06: $86.13 per share

- 2019-07: $83.69 per share

- 2019-08: $77.38 per share

- 2019-09: $89.47 per share

- 2019-10: $89.70 per share

- 2019-11: $92.54 per share

- 2019-12: $94.48 per share

- 2020-01: $77.86 per share

- 2020-02: $71.46 per share

- 2020-03: $49.63 per share

- 2020-04: $57.95 per share

- 2020-05: $63.76 per share

- 2020-06: $65.72 per share

- 2020-07: $62.52 per share

- 2020-08: $65.48 per share

- 2020-09: $70.49 per share

- 2020-10: $68.45 per share

- 2020-11: $85.10 per share

- 2020-12: $91.66 per share

- 2021-01: $85.76 per share

- 2021-02: $103.09 per share

- 2021-03: $104.05 per share

- 2021-04: $103.74 per share

- 2021-05: $112.62 per share

- 2021-06: $102.87 per share

- 2021-07: $99.33 per share

- 2021-08: $100.35 per share

- 2021-09: $93.85 per share

- 2021-10: $92.82 per share

- 2021-11: $87.13 per share

- 2021-12: $92.23 per share

- 2022-01: $96.73 per share

- 2022-02: $97.23 per share

- 2022-03: $102.82 per share

- 2022-04: $106.03 per share

- 2022-05: $114.25 per share

- 2022-06: $87.46 per share

- 2022-07: $89.12 per share

- 2022-08: $83.00 per share

- 2022-09: $75.28 per share

- 2022-10: $76.45 per share

- 2022-11: $85.01 per share

- 2022-12: $83.03 per share

- 2023-01: $96.69 per share

- 2023-02: $95.99 per share

- 2023-03: $93.89 per share

- 2023-04: $94.61 per share

- 2023-05: $85.54 per share

- 2023-06: $91.83 per share

- 2023-07: $98.86 per share

- 2023-08: $98.77 per share

- 2023-09: $94.70 per share

- 2023-10: $90.24 per share

- 2023-11: $95.10 per share

- 2023-12: $95.08 per share

- 2024-01: $94.12 per share

- 2024-02: $100.28 per share

- 2024-03: $102.28 per share

- 2024-04: $99.97 per share

- 2024-05: $99.42 per share

- 2024-06: $95.66 per share

- 2024-07: $99.46 per share

- 2024-08: $98.70 per share

- 2024-09: $95.90 per share

- 2024-10: $86.85 per share

- 2024-11: $83.34 per share

- 2024-12: $74.27 per share

- 2025-01: $75.70 per share

- 2025-02: $76.83 per share

- 2025-03: $70.40 per share

- 2025-04: $58.21 per share

- 2025-05: $56.49 per share

- 2025-06: $57.86 per share

- 2025-07: $57.93 per share

- 2025-08: $56.35 per share

- 2025-09: $49.04 per share

- 2025-10: $46.42 per share

- 2025-11: $48.99 per share

- 2025-12: $43.30 per share

- 2026-01: $49.00 per share

- 2026-02: $57.52 per share

- 2026-03: $80.56 per share

- 2026-04: $74.60 per share

- 2026-05: $66.65 per share

- 2026-06: $52.65 per share

- 2026-07: $62.08 per share

- 2026-08: $65.08 per share

- 2026-09: $57.47 per share

- 2026-10: $62.67 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $71.69 per share, central $81.09 per share, high $93.60 per share

- FY2017: low $92.30 per share, central $104.28 per share, high $120.22 per share

- FY2018: low $139.49 per share, central $163.42 per share, high $189.91 per share

- FY2019: low $161.51 per share, central $215.75 per share, high $252.48 per share

- FY2020: low $88.41 per share, central $99.81 per share, high $114.99 per share

- FY2021: low $207.53 per share, central $268.82 per share, high $314.05 per share

- FY2022: low $141.54 per share, central $171.71 per share, high $199.57 per share

- FY2023: low $87.57 per share, central $98.56 per share, high $113.19 per share

- FY2024: low $77.47 per share, central $87.06 per share, high $99.84 per share

- FY2025: low $61.55 per share, central $68.82 per share, high $78.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:45.340Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1489393/000148939326000012/lyb-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.