# Macy's (M.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/M

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:01.440Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $24.22 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $42.37 per share, central $47.77 per share, high $54.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $47.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:01.440Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.3% at the stated quote. About 18.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 3.90×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: -0.25×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.05×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 30.0%

- FY2019: 21.3%

- FY2020: 8.1%

- FY2021: -42.2%

- FY2022: 22.8%

- FY2023: 15.3%

- FY2024: 3.7%

- FY2025: 8.5%

- FY2026: 9.7%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 10.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.17×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.19×

- FY2023: 0.64×

- FY2024: -1.13×

- FY2025: 1.62×

- FY2026: 1.81×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.3% vs 8.5%

- Per-share earnings: 3.22 to 2.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Market cap gain: -$3.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $853M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -5.4%

- Per-share value change: -$1.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.22

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.0M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.02

- FY2018: $5.10

- FY2019: $3.56

- FY2020: $1.81

- FY2021: -$12.68

- FY2022: $4.55

- FY2023: $4.19

- FY2024: $0.16

- FY2025: $2.07

- FY2026: $2.32

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.23×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.9%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -25.9%

- FY2022: -7.3%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -7.8%

- FY2025: -4.2%

- FY2026: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.6% a year for ten years · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:07.145Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-07: Macy's (M) Raises Full-Year Outlook After Surpassing Q2 Expectations and Achieving Turnaround Milestones ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macys-m-raises-full-outlook-114229851.html))

- 2026-01-24: Macy’s makes unexpected closures as customers cut back ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macy-makes-unexpected-closures-customers-173300574.html))

- 2026-03-23: Macy’s forecasts flat FY26 performance following lower FY25 sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/macy-forecasts-flat-fy26-performance-112007774.html))

- 2026-04-01: Macy's new AI tool drives 400% sales jump for the dividend stock ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/macys-ai-tool-drives-400-110300920.html))

- 2026-06-03: Macy's Q1 2026 earnings beat, raises full-year outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/macys-q1-2026-earnings-beat-112512492.html))

- 2026-09-10: Macy's Falls on Guidance Despite Sales Beat, Better Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/macys-falls-guidance-despite-sales-164422042.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +0.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2018: $26B 

- FY2019: $26B 

- FY2020: $25B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $25B 

- FY2023: $25B 

- FY2024: $24B 

- FY2025: $23B 

- FY2026: $23B 

- FY2027: $23B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 36%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2018: 40.8% 

- FY2019: 40.9% 

- FY2020: 40.1% 

- FY2021: 32.1% 

- FY2022: 41.1% 

- FY2023: 39.3% 

- FY2024: 40.4% 

- FY2025: 40.3% 

- FY2026: 36.5% 

- FY2027: 36.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in department stores; annual sales are USD 22.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2026: revenue 22621000000; grossProfit 8267000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); M.US: Macy's, Inc., an omni-channel retail organization, operates stores, websites, and mobile applications in the United States. The company sells various merchandise, such as apparel and accessories for men, women, and kids; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods under the Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury brands. It also operates in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, and Al Zahra, Kuwait under the license agreements. The company was formerly known as Federated Department Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Macy's, Inc. in June 2007. Macy's, Inc. was founded in 1830 and is based in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.5% to 40.4% during 2024–26; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.3004513217279175],[2019,0.21318054264674338],[2020,0.08114496452688873],[2021,-0.4221194029850746],[2022,0.22776160865777417],[2023,0.15261995808330903],[2024,0.03690082138040946],[2025,0.08534781657571082],[2026,0.0974805078786646],[2027,0.10699353970148257]]; median 0.10223702379007357. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 250 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 912000000; owner earnings 773000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 760000000; owner earnings 1797000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 932000000; owner earnings 1138000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1157000000; owner earnings 388000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 597000000; owner earnings 1707000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2023: growth capex 17836687.610759735; upkeep 1277163312.3892403; owner earnings 756836687.6107597. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02356741936898958.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 518000000; owner earnings 945000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 373000000; owner earnings 1163000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Dividend observations: [[2017,459000000],[2018,461000000],[2019,463000000],[2020,466000000],[2021,117000000],[2022,90000000],[2023,173000000],[2024,181000000],[2025,192000000],[2026,197000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2026: cash repurchases 250000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); M.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.182 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-27); netration 40.1 % 41.6 %

The increase in other revenues from 2024 to 2025 was driven by a $132 million, or 25% increase, in credit card revenues which continued to be driven by a strong credit portfolio. Macy Media Network grew $12 million, or 7% from 2024, driven by benefits from our Amazon ad partnership which started this year.

2025 2024

Cost of sales $ (13,497) $ (13,740)

As a percent to net sales 62.0 % 61.6 %

Gross margin $ 8,267 $ 8,553

As a percent to net sales 38.0 % 38.4 %

Gross margin rate decreased by 40 basis points from 2024 to 2025. The decline was driven by the impact of tariffs, net of the Company's tariff mitigation efforts.

2025 2024

SG&A expenses $ (8,240) $ (8,330)

As a percent to total revenue 36.4 % 36.2 %

SG&A expenses decreased $90 million, or 1%, from 2024 to 2025 due to the net impact of the benefit of the 64 closed Macy's locations and ongoing expense savings initiatives, partially offset by investments in its go-forward business.

2025 2024

Gains on sale of real estate $ 48 $ 144

Asset sale gains in both 2025 and 2024 primarily reflect the monetization of non-go-forward store locations.

25

Table of Contents

2025 2024

Impairment, restructuring and other costs $ (230) $ (171)

The $230 million and $171 million of impairment, restructuring and other costs recognized in 2025 and 2024, respectively, primarily relate to actions that align with the Company's Bold New Chapter strategy. The primary costs consist of $160 million and $88 million non-cash asset impairment charges and $47 million and $44 million of restructuring charges recognized in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The impairment charges recognized in fiscal 2025 and 2024 primarily relate to non go-forward locations and the remaining amount is associated with corporate and other assets. The restructuring charges recognized in fiscal 2025 and 2024 are primarily related to employee termination and severance charges.

2025 2024

Interchange fee settlement, net $ 328 $ —

The $328 million of income recognized in 2025 relates to the settlement of agreements to resolve credit card interchange fee litigation matters, net of legal fees.

2025 2024

Benefit plan income, net $ 16 $ 16

The Company recorded non-cash net benefit plan income related to the Company's defined benefit plans. This income includes the net amount of interest cost, expected return on plan assets and amortization of prior service costs or credits and actuarial gains and losses. Benefit plan income remained flat from 2024 to 2025.

2025 2024

Pension settlement charges $ (67) $ (46)

Pension settlement charges in 2025 were primarily related to the pro-rata recognition of net actuarial losses associated with the Company's defined benefit retirement plans as the result of lump sum distributions associated with retiree distribution elections.

2025 2024

Net interest expense $ (97) $ (115)

The

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.13312160422169433. Price 24.22; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 3.063063063063063 → FY2026 4.206148282097649. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $36.49 per share

- 2016-11: $42.20 per share

- 2016-12: $35.81 per share

- 2017-01: $29.54 per share

- 2017-02: $33.22 per share

- 2017-03: $29.64 per share

- 2017-04: $29.22 per share

- 2017-05: $23.50 per share

- 2017-06: $23.24 per share

- 2017-07: $23.75 per share

- 2017-08: $20.77 per share

- 2017-09: $21.82 per share

- 2017-10: $18.76 per share

- 2017-11: $23.80 per share

- 2017-12: $25.19 per share

- 2018-01: $25.95 per share

- 2018-02: $29.41 per share

- 2018-03: $29.74 per share

- 2018-04: $31.07 per share

- 2018-05: $34.91 per share

- 2018-06: $37.43 per share

- 2018-07: $39.73 per share

- 2018-08: $36.55 per share

- 2018-09: $34.73 per share

- 2018-10: $34.29 per share

- 2018-11: $34.22 per share

- 2018-12: $29.78 per share

- 2019-01: $26.30 per share

- 2019-02: $24.79 per share

- 2019-03: $24.03 per share

- 2019-04: $23.54 per share

- 2019-05: $20.57 per share

- 2019-06: $21.46 per share

- 2019-07: $22.73 per share

- 2019-08: $14.76 per share

- 2019-09: $15.54 per share

- 2019-10: $15.16 per share

- 2019-11: $15.32 per share

- 2019-12: $17.00 per share

- 2020-01: $15.95 per share

- 2020-02: $13.23 per share

- 2020-03: $4.91 per share

- 2020-04: $5.86 per share

- 2020-05: $6.36 per share

- 2020-06: $6.88 per share

- 2020-07: $6.06 per share

- 2020-08: $6.97 per share

- 2020-09: $5.70 per share

- 2020-10: $6.21 per share

- 2020-11: $10.21 per share

- 2020-12: $11.25 per share

- 2021-01: $15.04 per share

- 2021-02: $15.21 per share

- 2021-03: $16.19 per share

- 2021-04: $16.58 per share

- 2021-05: $18.28 per share

- 2021-06: $18.96 per share

- 2021-07: $17.00 per share

- 2021-08: $22.39 per share

- 2021-09: $22.60 per share

- 2021-10: $26.47 per share

- 2021-11: $28.50 per share

- 2021-12: $26.18 per share

- 2022-01: $25.60 per share

- 2022-02: $25.92 per share

- 2022-03: $24.36 per share

- 2022-04: $24.17 per share

- 2022-05: $23.65 per share

- 2022-06: $18.32 per share

- 2022-07: $17.65 per share

- 2022-08: $17.32 per share

- 2022-09: $15.67 per share

- 2022-10: $20.85 per share

- 2022-11: $23.50 per share

- 2022-12: $20.65 per share

- 2023-01: $23.63 per share

- 2023-02: $20.46 per share

- 2023-03: $17.49 per share

- 2023-04: $16.34 per share

- 2023-05: $13.59 per share

- 2023-06: $16.05 per share

- 2023-07: $16.59 per share

- 2023-08: $12.23 per share

- 2023-09: $11.61 per share

- 2023-10: $12.18 per share

- 2023-11: $15.86 per share

- 2023-12: $20.12 per share

- 2024-01: $18.29 per share

- 2024-02: $17.44 per share

- 2024-03: $19.99 per share

- 2024-04: $18.43 per share

- 2024-05: $19.48 per share

- 2024-06: $19.20 per share

- 2024-07: $17.28 per share

- 2024-08: $15.57 per share

- 2024-09: $15.69 per share

- 2024-10: $15.34 per share

- 2024-11: $16.24 per share

- 2024-12: $16.93 per share

- 2025-01: $15.58 per share

- 2025-02: $14.35 per share

- 2025-03: $12.56 per share

- 2025-04: $11.42 per share

- 2025-05: $11.89 per share

- 2025-06: $11.66 per share

- 2025-07: $12.63 per share

- 2025-08: $13.23 per share

- 2025-09: $17.93 per share

- 2025-10: $19.49 per share

- 2025-11: $22.36 per share

- 2025-12: $22.05 per share

- 2026-01: $20.02 per share

- 2026-02: $19.78 per share

- 2026-03: $18.09 per share

- 2026-04: $19.55 per share

- 2026-05: $21.76 per share

- 2026-06: $23.55 per share

- 2026-07: $24.82 per share

- 2026-08: $21.96 per share

- 2026-09: $22.77 per share

- 2026-10: $22.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $51.12 per share, central $57.83 per share, high $66.76 per share

- FY2018: low $52.67 per share, central $59.51 per share, high $68.61 per share

- FY2019: low $42.02 per share, central $47.53 per share, high $54.86 per share

- FY2020: low $34.06 per share, central $38.68 per share, high $44.83 per share

- FY2021: low $22.74 per share, central $25.29 per share, high $28.68 per share

- FY2022: low $42.92 per share, central $48.31 per share, high $55.49 per share

- FY2023: low $30.68 per share, central $34.74 per share, high $40.14 per share

- FY2024: low $16.36 per share, central $18.34 per share, high $20.98 per share

- FY2025: low $29.56 per share, central $33.22 per share, high $38.10 per share

- FY2026: low $39.60 per share, central $44.67 per share, high $51.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794367/000162828026021721/m-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.