# Mastercard (MA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:01.808Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $616.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $269.53 per share, central $393.18 per share, high $462.15 per share. Buy at or below the central value $393.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:01.808Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.53×

- FY2018: 0.49×

- FY2019: 0.57×

- FY2020: 0.53×

- FY2021: 0.53×

- FY2022: 0.57×

- FY2023: 0.58×

- FY2024: 0.58×

- FY2025: 0.58×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.60×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: >100%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 100.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 87.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

- LTM to Jun 2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $58B

- Net income, five-year total: $58B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2140.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -17.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1324.9% vs 208.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.65 to 13.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Market cap gain: $404B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $66B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.2%

- Per-share value change: $10.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.77

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $13B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $86B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.69

- FY2017: $3.65

- FY2018: $5.60

- FY2019: $7.94

- FY2020: $6.37

- FY2021: $8.76

- FY2022: $10.23

- FY2023: $11.83

- FY2024: $13.89

- FY2025: $16.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.95×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.3%

- FY2017: -7.7%

- FY2018: -1.5%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Chuck Akre](https://gigainvestors.com/AC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Massey](https://gigainvestors.com/AP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stuart McLaughlin](https://gigainvestors.com/TFP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dev Kantesaria](https://gigainvestors.com/VFC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Guy Spier](https://gigainvestors.com/aq): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ackman](https://gigainvestors.com/psc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years · "Mastercard beats Q2 estimates on strong consumer spending, cross-border payments" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +16.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:07.221Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Mastercard Lifts Annual Outlook After Q1 Beat, Fueled By Cross-Border Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mastercard-lifts-annual-outlook-q1-153901699.html))

- 2025-12-15: Mastercard (MA) Is Up 5.3% After Boosting Buybacks And Dividend While Expanding Digital Partnerships ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mastercard-ma-5-3-boosting-231703089.html))

- 2026-02-26: Mastercard In Crosshairs: Citrini Models AI Agents Bypassing Interchange As Stablecoins Threaten Card Economics ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mastercard-crosshairs-citrini-models-ai-143110931.html))

- 2026-07-30: Mastercard beats Q2 estimates on strong consumer spending, cross-border payments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mastercard-beats-q2-estimates-strong-124801452.html))

- 2026-08-11: Mastercard Stock Rises as Services Revenue Jumps 20% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mastercard-stock-rises-services-revenue-191437142.html))

- 2026-09-16: Mastercard Slips as AI Payments Trade Exclusivity for Scale ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/mastercard-slips-ai-payments-trade-170826967.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +16.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $11B 

- FY2017: $12B 

- FY2018: $15B 

- FY2019: $17B 

- FY2020: $15B 

- FY2021: $19B 

- FY2022: $22B 

- FY2023: $25B 

- FY2024: $28B 

- FY2025: $33B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are USD 32.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm#000114139126000013 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 32791000000; grossProfit 32791000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MA.US: Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 100% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,5.559295765607057],[2017,57.39066666666667],[2018,13.249300351408055],[2019,1.9697302338852087],[2020,1.9036775859180017],[2021,1.502097280451428],[2022,1.9973917585489775],[2023,2.0811820979775217],[2024,2.042630529399762],[2025,2.4247512727294795]]; median 2.0619063136886417. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 9000000; upkeep 373000000; owner earnings 4059000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0022172949002217295.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 423000000; owner earnings 3929000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 45000000; upkeep 459000000; owner earnings 5859000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007680491551459293.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 144612591.6130159; upkeep 583387408.3869841; owner earnings 8056612591.613016. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.017949552615147277.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 708000000; owner earnings 6283000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 88000000; upkeep 726000000; owner earnings 8687000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.010130079429031887.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 325496176.051723; upkeep 771503823.948277; owner earnings 9908496176.051723. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03285020958462182.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 371000000; owner earnings 11623000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 474000000; owner earnings 13297000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 72000000; upkeep 1143000000; owner earnings 14968000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004810261892036344.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,837000000],[2017,942000000],[2018,1044000000],[2019,1345000000],[2020,1605000000],[2021,1741000000],[2022,1903000000],[2023,2158000000],[2024,2448000000],[2025,2756000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 11727000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.11100000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Adverse currency fluctuations and foreign exchange controls could negatively impact our results of operations." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Adverse currency fluctuations and foreign exchange controls could negatively impact our results of operations.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2354397225195689. Price 616.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.370272647317502 → FY2025 16.520971302428258. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $107.02 per share

- 2016-11: $102.20 per share

- 2016-12: $103.25 per share

- 2017-01: $106.33 per share

- 2017-02: $110.46 per share

- 2017-03: $112.47 per share

- 2017-04: $116.32 per share

- 2017-05: $122.88 per share

- 2017-06: $121.45 per share

- 2017-07: $127.80 per share

- 2017-08: $133.30 per share

- 2017-09: $141.20 per share

- 2017-10: $148.77 per share

- 2017-11: $150.47 per share

- 2017-12: $151.36 per share

- 2018-01: $169.00 per share

- 2018-02: $175.76 per share

- 2018-03: $175.16 per share

- 2018-04: $178.27 per share

- 2018-05: $190.12 per share

- 2018-06: $196.52 per share

- 2018-07: $198.00 per share

- 2018-08: $215.56 per share

- 2018-09: $222.61 per share

- 2018-10: $197.67 per share

- 2018-11: $201.07 per share

- 2018-12: $188.65 per share

- 2019-01: $211.13 per share

- 2019-02: $224.77 per share

- 2019-03: $235.45 per share

- 2019-04: $254.24 per share

- 2019-05: $251.49 per share

- 2019-06: $264.53 per share

- 2019-07: $272.27 per share

- 2019-08: $281.37 per share

- 2019-09: $271.57 per share

- 2019-10: $276.81 per share

- 2019-11: $292.23 per share

- 2019-12: $298.59 per share

- 2020-01: $315.94 per share

- 2020-02: $290.25 per share

- 2020-03: $241.56 per share

- 2020-04: $274.97 per share

- 2020-05: $300.89 per share

- 2020-06: $295.70 per share

- 2020-07: $308.53 per share

- 2020-08: $358.19 per share

- 2020-09: $338.17 per share

- 2020-10: $288.64 per share

- 2020-11: $336.51 per share

- 2020-12: $356.94 per share

- 2021-01: $316.29 per share

- 2021-02: $353.85 per share

- 2021-03: $356.05 per share

- 2021-04: $382.06 per share

- 2021-05: $360.58 per share

- 2021-06: $365.09 per share

- 2021-07: $385.94 per share

- 2021-08: $346.23 per share

- 2021-09: $347.68 per share

- 2021-10: $335.52 per share

- 2021-11: $314.92 per share

- 2021-12: $359.32 per share

- 2022-01: $386.38 per share

- 2022-02: $360.82 per share

- 2022-03: $357.38 per share

- 2022-04: $363.38 per share

- 2022-05: $357.87 per share

- 2022-06: $315.48 per share

- 2022-07: $353.79 per share

- 2022-08: $324.37 per share

- 2022-09: $284.34 per share

- 2022-10: $328.18 per share

- 2022-11: $356.40 per share

- 2022-12: $347.73 per share

- 2023-01: $370.60 per share

- 2023-02: $355.29 per share

- 2023-03: $363.41 per share

- 2023-04: $380.03 per share

- 2023-05: $365.02 per share

- 2023-06: $393.30 per share

- 2023-07: $394.28 per share

- 2023-08: $412.64 per share

- 2023-09: $395.91 per share

- 2023-10: $376.35 per share

- 2023-11: $413.83 per share

- 2023-12: $426.51 per share

- 2024-01: $449.23 per share

- 2024-02: $474.76 per share

- 2024-03: $481.57 per share

- 2024-04: $451.20 per share

- 2024-05: $447.07 per share

- 2024-06: $441.16 per share

- 2024-07: $463.71 per share

- 2024-08: $483.34 per share

- 2024-09: $493.80 per share

- 2024-10: $499.59 per share

- 2024-11: $532.94 per share

- 2024-12: $526.57 per share

- 2025-01: $555.43 per share

- 2025-02: $576.31 per share

- 2025-03: $548.12 per share

- 2025-04: $548.06 per share

- 2025-05: $585.60 per share

- 2025-06: $561.94 per share

- 2025-07: $566.47 per share

- 2025-08: $595.29 per share

- 2025-09: $568.81 per share

- 2025-10: $551.99 per share

- 2025-11: $550.53 per share

- 2025-12: $570.88 per share

- 2026-01: $538.79 per share

- 2026-02: $517.21 per share

- 2026-03: $499.66 per share

- 2026-04: $502.92 per share

- 2026-05: $493.98 per share

- 2026-06: $513.60 per share

- 2026-07: $573.10 per share

- 2026-08: $589.31 per share

- 2026-09: $551.47 per share

- 2026-10: $604.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $50.12 per share, central $71.60 per share, high $84.10 per share

- FY2017: low $59.70 per share, central $85.28 per share, high $100.17 per share

- FY2018: low $74.12 per share, central $105.88 per share, high $124.38 per share

- FY2019: low $94.01 per share, central $137.14 per share, high $161.19 per share

- FY2020: low $86.55 per share, central $126.26 per share, high $148.41 per share

- FY2021: low $113.51 per share, central $165.58 per share, high $194.62 per share

- FY2022: low $148.17 per share, central $216.15 per share, high $254.07 per share

- FY2023: low $177.22 per share, central $258.52 per share, high $303.87 per share

- FY2024: low $202.97 per share, central $296.08 per share, high $348.01 per share

- FY2025: low $241.76 per share, central $352.68 per share, high $414.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:46.652Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141391/000114139126000013/ma-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.