# ManpowerGroup (MAN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MAN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:02.963Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $43.74 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $44.50 per share, central $50.64 per share, high $58.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $50.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:02.963Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 36.2%

- FY2017: 34.5%

- FY2018: 32.4%

- FY2019: 22.0%

- FY2020: 20.2%

- FY2021: 29.3%

- FY2022: 28.8%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 15.5%

- FY2025: 7.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $977M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.12×

- FY2024: 1.24×

- FY2025: -1.16×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.5% vs 11.2%

- Per-share earnings: 6.27 to 1.76 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- Market cap gain: -$4.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -14.7%

- Per-share value change: -$4.51

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.76

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 5.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 34.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.27

- FY2017: $8.03

- FY2018: $8.55

- FY2019: $7.72

- FY2020: $0.41

- FY2021: $6.90

- FY2022: $7.08

- FY2023: $1.76

- FY2024: $3.00

- FY2025: -$0.29

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: 1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.96×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.1%

- FY2017: 1.6%

- FY2018: 0.9%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -9.8%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: -2.9%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: 1.0%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 59% since Feb 2022 · "Experis impacted by soft professional demand, with stable underlying activity." (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:07.474Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.9% a year for ten years

- 2026-01-29: ManpowerGroup (NYSE:MAN) Beats Q4 CY2025 Sales Expectations, Stock Jumps 10.2% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/manpowergroup-nyse-man-beats-q4-135015503.html))

- 2026-07-16: ManpowerGroup’s (NYSE:MAN) Q2 CY2026 Sales Top Estimates, Stock Jumps 12.3% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/manpowergroup-nyse-man-q2-cy2026-120129301.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $20B 

- FY2017: $21B 

- FY2018: $22B 

- FY2019: $21B 

- FY2020: $18B 

- FY2021: $21B 

- FY2022: $20B 

- FY2023: $19B 

- FY2024: $18B 

- FY2025: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 16.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: 17.0% 

- FY2017: 16.6% 

- FY2018: 16.3% 

- FY2019: 16.2% 

- FY2020: 15.7% 

- FY2021: 16.4% 

- FY2022: 18.0% 

- FY2023: 17.8% 

- FY2024: 17.3% 

- FY2025: 16.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in staffing & employment services; annual sales are USD 18 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 17957100000; grossProfit 2997600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); MAN.US: ManpowerGroup Inc. provides workforce solutions and services under the Manpower, the Experis, and the Talent Solutions brands in the Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and the Asia Pacific/the Middle East. The company offers recruitment services, including permanent, temporary, and contract recruitment of professionals, as well as administrative, industrial, and information technology professional positions; assessment, upskilling, reskilling, training and development, career management, and workforce consulting services; and outsourcing services related to human resources functions primarily in the areas of large-scale recruiting and workforce-intensive initiatives. It also offers contingent staffing and permanent recruitment services; information technology professional resourcing and project services; and recruitment process outsourcing solutions; and right management services, as well as TAPFIN, a managed service provider solution. ManpowerGroup Inc. was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.7% to 17.8% during 2023–25; it earns 25.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.36179108903551044],[2017,0.344919578084785],[2018,0.3244526318520795],[2019,0.22023729945727516],[2020,0.20150869274490138],[2021,0.29279610051928917],[2022,0.2880028483125204],[2023,0.11225357817985417],[2024,0.15488241706899236],[2025,0.07619655392469687]]; median 0.25412007388489777. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.16441971782054005],[2022,0.18017400075652504],[2023,0.17753575299373497]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 6.5% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 56900000; cash acquisitions 57600000; owner earnings 472100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1220080491421309.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 54700000; cash acquisitions 32700000; owner earnings 575100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.056859676577986434.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 64700000; cash acquisitions 9100000; owner earnings 577800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.015749394254067153.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 52900000; cash acquisitions 77800000; owner earnings 490000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15877551020408162.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 50700000; cash acquisitions 700000; owner earnings 49400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01417004048582996.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 64200000; cash acquisitions 924400000; owner earnings 391600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.3605720122574056.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 75600000; cash acquisitions 16400000; owner earnings 382800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.042842215256008356.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 78200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 99200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 51100000; cash acquisitions 4900000; owner earnings 180600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.027131782945736434.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 57300000; cash acquisitions 1000000; owner earnings 15400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06493506493506493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,118400000],[2017,123700000],[2018,127300000],[2019,129300000],[2020,129100000],[2021,136600000],[2022,139900000],[2023,144300000],[2024,145800000],[2025,66700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 38200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); MAN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.762 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 24.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.025998445070497922. Price 43.74; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.722007722007722 → FY2025 0.33047210300429186. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $76.80 per share

- 2016-11: $85.41 per share

- 2016-12: $88.87 per share

- 2017-01: $95.46 per share

- 2017-02: $97.04 per share

- 2017-03: $102.57 per share

- 2017-04: $100.98 per share

- 2017-05: $101.87 per share

- 2017-06: $111.65 per share

- 2017-07: $107.15 per share

- 2017-08: $111.51 per share

- 2017-09: $117.82 per share

- 2017-10: $123.28 per share

- 2017-11: $128.90 per share

- 2017-12: $126.11 per share

- 2018-01: $131.39 per share

- 2018-02: $118.46 per share

- 2018-03: $115.10 per share

- 2018-04: $95.72 per share

- 2018-05: $90.00 per share

- 2018-06: $86.06 per share

- 2018-07: $93.26 per share

- 2018-08: $93.73 per share

- 2018-09: $85.96 per share

- 2018-10: $76.29 per share

- 2018-11: $81.18 per share

- 2018-12: $64.80 per share

- 2019-01: $79.03 per share

- 2019-02: $84.25 per share

- 2019-03: $82.69 per share

- 2019-04: $96.04 per share

- 2019-05: $85.52 per share

- 2019-06: $96.60 per share

- 2019-07: $91.35 per share

- 2019-08: $81.74 per share

- 2019-09: $84.24 per share

- 2019-10: $90.92 per share

- 2019-11: $92.64 per share

- 2019-12: $97.10 per share

- 2020-01: $91.49 per share

- 2020-02: $75.94 per share

- 2020-03: $52.99 per share

- 2020-04: $74.24 per share

- 2020-05: $69.14 per share

- 2020-06: $68.75 per share

- 2020-07: $68.79 per share

- 2020-08: $73.31 per share

- 2020-09: $73.33 per share

- 2020-10: $67.87 per share

- 2020-11: $86.65 per share

- 2020-12: $90.18 per share

- 2021-01: $88.44 per share

- 2021-02: $94.44 per share

- 2021-03: $98.90 per share

- 2021-04: $120.89 per share

- 2021-05: $120.99 per share

- 2021-06: $118.91 per share

- 2021-07: $118.58 per share

- 2021-08: $121.42 per share

- 2021-09: $108.28 per share

- 2021-10: $96.65 per share

- 2021-11: $89.63 per share

- 2021-12: $97.33 per share

- 2022-01: $104.87 per share

- 2022-02: $106.28 per share

- 2022-03: $93.92 per share

- 2022-04: $90.20 per share

- 2022-05: $89.61 per share

- 2022-06: $76.41 per share

- 2022-07: $78.41 per share

- 2022-08: $73.32 per share

- 2022-09: $64.69 per share

- 2022-10: $78.34 per share

- 2022-11: $87.52 per share

- 2022-12: $83.21 per share

- 2023-01: $87.16 per share

- 2023-02: $84.88 per share

- 2023-03: $82.53 per share

- 2023-04: $75.71 per share

- 2023-05: $70.17 per share

- 2023-06: $79.40 per share

- 2023-07: $78.88 per share

- 2023-08: $78.87 per share

- 2023-09: $73.32 per share

- 2023-10: $69.97 per share

- 2023-11: $74.21 per share

- 2023-12: $79.47 per share

- 2024-01: $74.14 per share

- 2024-02: $72.16 per share

- 2024-03: $77.64 per share

- 2024-04: $75.45 per share

- 2024-05: $74.62 per share

- 2024-06: $69.80 per share

- 2024-07: $76.58 per share

- 2024-08: $73.92 per share

- 2024-09: $73.52 per share

- 2024-10: $62.85 per share

- 2024-11: $64.37 per share

- 2024-12: $57.72 per share

- 2025-01: $60.22 per share

- 2025-02: $57.63 per share

- 2025-03: $57.88 per share

- 2025-04: $43.07 per share

- 2025-05: $41.95 per share

- 2025-06: $40.40 per share

- 2025-07: $41.25 per share

- 2025-08: $42.40 per share

- 2025-09: $37.90 per share

- 2025-10: $30.66 per share

- 2025-11: $28.76 per share

- 2025-12: $29.73 per share

- 2026-01: $36.33 per share

- 2026-02: $27.97 per share

- 2026-03: $29.46 per share

- 2026-04: $30.27 per share

- 2026-05: $31.63 per share

- 2026-06: $33.77 per share

- 2026-07: $52.42 per share

- 2026-08: $62.95 per share

- 2026-09: $55.58 per share

- 2026-10: $43.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $70.11 per share, central $79.38 per share, high $91.71 per share

- FY2017: low $81.83 per share, central $92.57 per share, high $106.86 per share

- FY2018: low $91.03 per share, central $103.26 per share, high $119.53 per share

- FY2019: low $111.46 per share, central $139.50 per share, high $161.30 per share

- FY2020: low $101.77 per share, central $112.95 per share, high $127.83 per share

- FY2021: low $103.85 per share, central $117.09 per share, high $134.72 per share

- FY2022: low $83.84 per share, central $94.76 per share, high $109.31 per share

- FY2023: low $81.54 per share, central $92.22 per share, high $106.45 per share

- FY2024: low $44.02 per share, central $49.66 per share, high $57.16 per share

- FY2025: low $53.59 per share, central $59.46 per share, high $67.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/871763/000119312526064113/man-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.