# Marriott International (MAR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MAR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:03.879Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $385.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $116.35 per share, central $137.79 per share, high $160.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value $137.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:03.879Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 82.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 44.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 73.0%

- FY2018: 86.8%

- FY2019: 44.1%

- FY2020: 4.2%

- FY2021: 74.6%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 90.9%

- FY2025: 78.4%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 98.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 131.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.10×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 73.0% vs 90.9%

- Per-share earnings: 3.15 to 9.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Market cap gain: $51B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.8%

- Per-share value change: $6.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.81

- Average buyback yield: 4.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $18B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $17B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 73.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 90.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.73

- FY2017: $3.84

- FY2018: $5.38

- FY2019: $3.79

- FY2020: -$0.82

- FY2021: $3.34

- FY2022: $7.24

- FY2023: $10.18

- FY2024: $8.33

- FY2025: $9.51

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.23×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.4%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -1.9%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -7.7%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: -0.0%

- FY2023: -0.3%

- FY2024: -1.4%

- FY2025: -2.2%

## Holders

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.9% a year for ten years · "Marriott Sees Earnings Growth Fueled by Higher Net Rooms, Credit-Card Fees" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +2.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:07.643Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Marriott International (NasdaqGS:MAR) Reports Revenue Growth And Raises 2025 Earnings Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marriott-international-nasdaqgs-mar-reports-172649507.html))

- 2025-06-14: Marriott International's SWOT analysis: luxury focus drives stock resilience ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/marriott-internationals-swot-analysis-luxury-focus-drives-stock-resilience-93CH-4095942))

- 2025-08-05: Marriott cuts 2025 revenue forecast on soft travel demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marriott-cuts-2025-revenue-forecast-110604597.html))

- 2025-11-04: Marriott Stock Up as Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, RevPAR Rises Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marriott-stock-q3-earnings-beat-160300521.html))

- 2026-02-10: Marriott Sees Earnings Growth Fueled by Higher Net Rooms, Credit-Card Fees ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a27a4f7d-265f-33b5-9f22-b69974a92757/marriott-sees-earnings-growth.html))

- 2026-08-03: Marriott Stock Plunges 7.5% as Middle East Revenue Collapses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marriott-stock-plunges-7-5-182225311.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: $20B 

- FY2018: $21B 

- FY2019: $21B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $14B 

- FY2022: $21B 

- FY2023: $24B 

- FY2024: $25B 

- FY2025: $26B 

- FY2026: $27B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 20.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: 18.6% 

- FY2018: 17.7% 

- FY2019: 15.3% 

- FY2020: 13.8% 

- FY2021: 20.2% 

- FY2022: 21.9% 

- FY2023: 21.6% 

- FY2024: 20.3% 

- FY2025: 21.3% 

- FY2026: 20.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in lodging; annual sales are USD 26.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: revenue 26186000000; grossProfit 5587000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.3% to 21.6% during 2023–25; it earns 82.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.7298654708520179],[2018,0.8678744302843024],[2019,0.4406582527363735],[2020,0.04207989854153456],[2021,0.7462787918296393],[2022,1.1462677966187373],[2023,1.2356544241294198],[2024,0.9094481257386334],[2025,0.7841525161264394],[2026,0.9820100161309081]]; median 0.826013473205371. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 22% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.20213610449592265],[2022,0.21941943869445915],[2023,0.2160840045544638]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.2% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2016: growth capex 40000000; upkeep 159000000; owner earnings 808000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04950495049504951.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 240000000; owner earnings 1498000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2018: growth capex 31231203.643754184; upkeep 524768796.3562458; owner earnings 1666231203.6437542. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01874361947817148.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2019: growth capex 23009960.36295247; upkeep 629990039.6370475; owner earnings 1046009960.3629525. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.021997840589365228.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 135000000; owner earnings 76000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 183000000; owner earnings 1211000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 332000000; owner earnings 2426000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: growth capex 16000000; upkeep 436000000; owner earnings 3083000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0051897502432695424.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: growth capex 204117008.67609262; upkeep 545882991.3239074; owner earnings 2321117008.6760926. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08793912926971134.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: growth capex 5000000; upkeep 599000000; owner earnings 2601000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0019223375624759708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,374000000],[2017,482000000],[2018,543000000],[2019,612000000],[2020,156000000],[2021,90000000],[2022,321000000],[2023,587000000],[2024,682000000],[2025,718000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 3300000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MAR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.083 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Premature termination of our agreements with hotel owners could materially hurt our financial performance" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Premature termination of our agreements with hotel owners could materially hurt our financial performance

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20264063328451387. Price 385.71; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.804716559845015 → FY2025 9.506578947368421. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $68.70 per share

- 2016-11: $78.78 per share

- 2016-12: $82.68 per share

- 2017-01: $84.60 per share

- 2017-02: $86.99 per share

- 2017-03: $94.18 per share

- 2017-04: $94.42 per share

- 2017-05: $107.65 per share

- 2017-06: $100.31 per share

- 2017-07: $104.19 per share

- 2017-08: $103.58 per share

- 2017-09: $110.26 per share

- 2017-10: $119.48 per share

- 2017-11: $127.00 per share

- 2017-12: $135.73 per share

- 2018-01: $147.34 per share

- 2018-02: $141.21 per share

- 2018-03: $135.98 per share

- 2018-04: $136.68 per share

- 2018-05: $135.36 per share

- 2018-06: $126.60 per share

- 2018-07: $127.84 per share

- 2018-08: $126.47 per share

- 2018-09: $132.03 per share

- 2018-10: $116.89 per share

- 2018-11: $115.03 per share

- 2018-12: $108.56 per share

- 2019-01: $114.53 per share

- 2019-02: $125.27 per share

- 2019-03: $125.09 per share

- 2019-04: $136.42 per share

- 2019-05: $124.84 per share

- 2019-06: $140.29 per share

- 2019-07: $139.06 per share

- 2019-08: $126.06 per share

- 2019-09: $124.37 per share

- 2019-10: $126.55 per share

- 2019-11: $140.36 per share

- 2019-12: $151.43 per share

- 2020-01: $140.06 per share

- 2020-02: $124.00 per share

- 2020-03: $74.81 per share

- 2020-04: $90.94 per share

- 2020-05: $88.50 per share

- 2020-06: $85.73 per share

- 2020-07: $83.83 per share

- 2020-08: $102.91 per share

- 2020-09: $92.58 per share

- 2020-10: $92.88 per share

- 2020-11: $126.87 per share

- 2020-12: $131.92 per share

- 2021-01: $116.31 per share

- 2021-02: $148.07 per share

- 2021-03: $148.11 per share

- 2021-04: $148.52 per share

- 2021-05: $143.58 per share

- 2021-06: $136.52 per share

- 2021-07: $145.98 per share

- 2021-08: $135.14 per share

- 2021-09: $148.09 per share

- 2021-10: $160.02 per share

- 2021-11: $147.56 per share

- 2021-12: $165.24 per share

- 2022-01: $161.12 per share

- 2022-02: $170.14 per share

- 2022-03: $175.75 per share

- 2022-04: $177.52 per share

- 2022-05: $171.58 per share

- 2022-06: $136.01 per share

- 2022-07: $158.82 per share

- 2022-08: $153.74 per share

- 2022-09: $140.14 per share

- 2022-10: $160.11 per share

- 2022-11: $165.35 per share

- 2022-12: $148.89 per share

- 2023-01: $174.18 per share

- 2023-02: $169.24 per share

- 2023-03: $166.04 per share

- 2023-04: $169.34 per share

- 2023-05: $167.79 per share

- 2023-06: $183.69 per share

- 2023-07: $201.81 per share

- 2023-08: $203.51 per share

- 2023-09: $196.56 per share

- 2023-10: $188.56 per share

- 2023-11: $202.70 per share

- 2023-12: $225.51 per share

- 2024-01: $239.73 per share

- 2024-02: $249.87 per share

- 2024-03: $252.31 per share

- 2024-04: $236.13 per share

- 2024-05: $231.17 per share

- 2024-06: $241.77 per share

- 2024-07: $227.30 per share

- 2024-08: $234.69 per share

- 2024-09: $248.60 per share

- 2024-10: $260.02 per share

- 2024-11: $289.09 per share

- 2024-12: $278.94 per share

- 2025-01: $290.59 per share

- 2025-02: $280.45 per share

- 2025-03: $238.20 per share

- 2025-04: $238.58 per share

- 2025-05: $263.83 per share

- 2025-06: $273.21 per share

- 2025-07: $263.83 per share

- 2025-08: $267.86 per share

- 2025-09: $260.44 per share

- 2025-10: $260.58 per share

- 2025-11: $304.79 per share

- 2025-12: $310.24 per share

- 2026-01: $315.30 per share

- 2026-02: $341.73 per share

- 2026-03: $327.07 per share

- 2026-04: $361.69 per share

- 2026-05: $375.60 per share

- 2026-06: $370.59 per share

- 2026-07: $372.83 per share

- 2026-08: $341.76 per share

- 2026-09: $355.67 per share

- 2026-10: $371.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $28.36 per share, central $33.40 per share, high $38.57 per share

- FY2017: low $31.64 per share, central $36.97 per share, high $43.00 per share

- FY2018: low $34.93 per share, central $41.10 per share, high $47.82 per share

- FY2019: low $37.83 per share, central $45.25 per share, high $52.69 per share

- FY2020: low $20.64 per share, central $23.21 per share, high $26.62 per share

- FY2021: low $37.08 per share, central $41.72 per share, high $47.91 per share

- FY2022: low $56.22 per share, central $63.93 per share, high $74.20 per share

- FY2023: low $77.59 per share, central $91.78 per share, high $106.81 per share

- FY2024: low $92.57 per share, central $109.85 per share, high $127.86 per share

- FY2025: low $107.93 per share, central $127.83 per share, high $148.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:48.535Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000104828626000007/mar-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.