# Mattel (MAT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MAT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:04.679Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $17.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $18.67 per share, central $21.05 per share, high $24.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $21.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:04.679Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.7% at the stated quote. About 11.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 7 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 7

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: -0.07×

- FY2018: -0.05×

- FY2019: 0.01×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -11.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.3%

- FY2017: -13.9%

- FY2018: -11.8%

- FY2019: 1.7%

- FY2020: 14.9%

- FY2021: 30.7%

- FY2022: 19.4%

- FY2023: 16.8%

- FY2024: 26.6%

- FY2025: 22.2%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.09×

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -11.8% vs 22.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.91 to 1.24 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: -$3.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $456M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.91

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.24

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.31

- Average buyback yield: 3.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $33M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -11.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 22.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.91

- FY2017: -$3.07

- FY2018: -$1.55

- FY2019: -$0.63

- FY2020: $0.35

- FY2021: $2.53

- FY2022: $1.10

- FY2023: $0.60

- FY2024: $1.58

- FY2025: $1.24

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 13.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.77×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: -16.5%

- FY2018: -9.7%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: 6.5%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: -10.2%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 31% since May 2022 · "Mattel Q2 Sales Beat Estimates as Margin Pressure Squeezes Earnings" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:07.763Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: Mattel's Plea for Lower Tariffs Pays Off and the Stock Pops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mattels-plea-lower-tariffs-pays-203252223.html))

- 2025-07-23: Mattel Stock Falls On Sales Miss, Guidance Cut: Tariffs Hit Barbie ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mattel-stock-falls-sales-miss-213401855.html))

- 2025-10-21: Mattel Stock Drops as Tariffs Hit Sales in North America, Earnings Disappoint ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/df0c3792-2c44-3f50-b1fe-184813931b80/mattel-stock-drops-as-tariffs.html))

- 2026-02-11: Mattel Stock Suffers Sharpest Decline This Century After Holiday Sales Sputter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/35570859-e718-3e2b-9c86-0683c8c1f67f/mattel-stock-suffers-sharpest.html))

- 2026-03-05: Mattel's Investment in Digital Gaming to Create Drag on Full-Year 2026 EPS, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mattel-apos-investment-digital-gaming-161456313.html))

- 2026-04-29: Mattel raises annual profit forecast on steady toy demand, entertainment push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mattel-raises-annual-profit-forecast-201443390.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: $5.5B 

- FY2017: $4.9B 

- FY2018: $4.5B 

- FY2019: $4.5B 

- FY2020: $4.6B 

- FY2021: $5.5B 

- FY2022: $5.4B 

- FY2023: $5.4B 

- FY2024: $5.4B 

- FY2025: $5.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 48.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2016: 46.7% 

- FY2017: 37.4% 

- FY2018: 39.8% 

- FY2019: 43.9% 

- FY2020: 48.9% 

- FY2021: 48.1% 

- FY2022: 45.7% 

- FY2023: 47.5% 

- FY2024: 50.8% 

- FY2025: 48.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in leisure; annual sales are USD 5.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 5347600000; grossProfit 2613400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MAT.US: Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.5% to 50.8% during 2023–25; it earns 16.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.16333891899041272],[2017,-0.13925376762913327],[2018,-0.1183741243538953],[2019,0.017451770417601705],[2020,0.14942619437421437],[2021,0.30709995159219583],[2022,0.19402036733528097],[2023,0.16824138321922322],[2024,0.266303474817267],[2025,0.22151583666599442]]; median 0.16579015110481798. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 10 years; bought back USD 600 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 262193000; cash acquisitions 33154000; owner earnings 313055000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.10590471322930475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 118793000; owner earnings 198237000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 151353000; owner earnings 983316000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 186503000; owner earnings 445626000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 160300000; owner earnings 231500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 202620000; owner earnings 585146000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 181992000; owner earnings 383608000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,518529000],[2017,311973000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,2690000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 600000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MAT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.018 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03741889687712571. Price 17.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.120424549960559 → FY2025 1.192099244232299. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $31.53 per share

- 2016-11: $31.57 per share

- 2016-12: $27.55 per share

- 2017-01: $26.21 per share

- 2017-02: $25.73 per share

- 2017-03: $25.61 per share

- 2017-04: $22.42 per share

- 2017-05: $22.91 per share

- 2017-06: $21.53 per share

- 2017-07: $20.02 per share

- 2017-08: $16.22 per share

- 2017-09: $15.48 per share

- 2017-10: $14.12 per share

- 2017-11: $18.25 per share

- 2017-12: $15.38 per share

- 2018-01: $15.84 per share

- 2018-02: $15.90 per share

- 2018-03: $13.15 per share

- 2018-04: $14.80 per share

- 2018-05: $15.52 per share

- 2018-06: $16.42 per share

- 2018-07: $15.87 per share

- 2018-08: $15.43 per share

- 2018-09: $15.70 per share

- 2018-10: $13.58 per share

- 2018-11: $13.90 per share

- 2018-12: $9.99 per share

- 2019-01: $11.84 per share

- 2019-02: $14.42 per share

- 2019-03: $13.00 per share

- 2019-04: $12.19 per share

- 2019-05: $9.85 per share

- 2019-06: $11.21 per share

- 2019-07: $14.60 per share

- 2019-08: $9.80 per share

- 2019-09: $11.39 per share

- 2019-10: $11.94 per share

- 2019-11: $11.70 per share

- 2019-12: $13.55 per share

- 2020-01: $14.63 per share

- 2020-02: $11.79 per share

- 2020-03: $8.81 per share

- 2020-04: $8.72 per share

- 2020-05: $9.21 per share

- 2020-06: $9.67 per share

- 2020-07: $11.11 per share

- 2020-08: $10.75 per share

- 2020-09: $11.70 per share

- 2020-10: $13.77 per share

- 2020-11: $15.49 per share

- 2020-12: $17.45 per share

- 2021-01: $18.12 per share

- 2021-02: $20.20 per share

- 2021-03: $19.92 per share

- 2021-04: $21.46 per share

- 2021-05: $21.21 per share

- 2021-06: $20.10 per share

- 2021-07: $21.72 per share

- 2021-08: $21.35 per share

- 2021-09: $18.56 per share

- 2021-10: $21.81 per share

- 2021-11: $21.21 per share

- 2021-12: $21.56 per share

- 2022-01: $20.92 per share

- 2022-02: $24.98 per share

- 2022-03: $22.21 per share

- 2022-04: $24.31 per share

- 2022-05: $25.12 per share

- 2022-06: $22.33 per share

- 2022-07: $23.20 per share

- 2022-08: $22.12 per share

- 2022-09: $18.94 per share

- 2022-10: $18.96 per share

- 2022-11: $18.23 per share

- 2022-12: $17.84 per share

- 2023-01: $20.46 per share

- 2023-02: $17.99 per share

- 2023-03: $18.41 per share

- 2023-04: $18.00 per share

- 2023-05: $17.41 per share

- 2023-06: $19.54 per share

- 2023-07: $21.30 per share

- 2023-08: $22.16 per share

- 2023-09: $22.03 per share

- 2023-10: $19.08 per share

- 2023-11: $19.00 per share

- 2023-12: $18.88 per share

- 2024-01: $17.89 per share

- 2024-02: $19.70 per share

- 2024-03: $19.81 per share

- 2024-04: $18.32 per share

- 2024-05: $17.79 per share

- 2024-06: $16.26 per share

- 2024-07: $19.29 per share

- 2024-08: $18.98 per share

- 2024-09: $19.05 per share

- 2024-10: $20.38 per share

- 2024-11: $19.02 per share

- 2024-12: $17.73 per share

- 2025-01: $18.64 per share

- 2025-02: $21.30 per share

- 2025-03: $19.43 per share

- 2025-04: $15.89 per share

- 2025-05: $18.94 per share

- 2025-06: $19.72 per share

- 2025-07: $17.01 per share

- 2025-08: $18.30 per share

- 2025-09: $16.83 per share

- 2025-10: $18.38 per share

- 2025-11: $21.12 per share

- 2025-12: $19.84 per share

- 2026-01: $20.89 per share

- 2026-02: $16.95 per share

- 2026-03: $14.53 per share

- 2026-04: $15.08 per share

- 2026-05: $14.94 per share

- 2026-06: $13.88 per share

- 2026-07: $15.09 per share

- 2026-08: $14.95 per share

- 2026-09: $12.66 per share

- 2026-10: $17.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $16.21 per share, central $18.14 per share, high $20.71 per share

- FY2017: low $13.22 per share, central $14.65 per share, high $16.56 per share

- FY2018: low $9.67 per share, central $10.80 per share, high $12.31 per share

- FY2022: low $8.95 per share, central $9.94 per share, high $11.25 per share

- FY2023: low $10.42 per share, central $11.41 per share, high $12.74 per share

- FY2024: low $17.77 per share, central $19.71 per share, high $22.29 per share

- FY2025: low $18.42 per share, central $20.48 per share, high $23.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63276/000162828026010716/mat-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.