# McDonald's (MCD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MCD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:06.177Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $242.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $174.98 per share, central $246.00 per share, high $288.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value $246.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:06.177Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.42×

- FY2018: 0.42×

- FY2019: 0.42×

- FY2020: 0.38×

- FY2021: 0.45×

- FY2022: 0.40×

- FY2023: 0.46×

- FY2024: 0.45×

- FY2025: 0.46×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.46×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 29.0%

- FY2018: 30.1%

- FY2019: 19.1%

- FY2020: 15.1%

- FY2021: 23.0%

- FY2022: 19.9%

- FY2023: 23.0%

- FY2024: 21.2%

- FY2025: 19.9%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 20.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $39B

- Net income, five-year total: $39B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 80.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.0% vs 21.2%

- Per-share earnings: 5.44 to 11.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: $114B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.9%

- Per-share value change: $6.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $11.56

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $66B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.44

- FY2017: $6.37

- FY2018: $7.54

- FY2019: $7.88

- FY2020: $6.31

- FY2021: $10.04

- FY2022: $8.33

- FY2023: $11.56

- FY2024: $11.39

- FY2025: $11.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.23×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: -1.1%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -3.3%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since Feb 2026 · "McDonald’s CEO says low traffic and high inflation are here to stay" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.153Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-13: Argus downgrades McDonald’s as price hikes hit traffic ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argus-downgrades-mcdonald-price-hikes-170649820.html))

- 2025-08-06: McDonald's global sales top estimates as promotions boost demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/mcdonalds-global-sales-top-estimates-180156709.html))

- 2026-02-12: McDonald's Sales Surge Most in Two Years on $5 Meal Push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/mcdonalds-sales-surge-most-two-184113589.html))

- 2026-04-21: McDonald’s Q1 profit seen slightly below estimates as Jefferies trims sales outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mcdonald-q1-profit-seen-slightly-164900281.html))

- 2026-05-07: McDonald's misses US sales growth target as consumer spending tightens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/mcdonalds-misses-us-sales-growth-135022392.html))

- 2026-09-23: McDonald’s CEO says low traffic and high inflation are here to stay ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/mcdonald-ceo-says-low-traffic-181005730.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $23B 

- FY2018: $21B 

- FY2019: $21B 

- FY2020: $19B 

- FY2021: $23B 

- FY2022: $23B 

- FY2023: $25B 

- FY2024: $26B 

- FY2025: $27B 

- FY2026: $28B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 57.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: 46.5% 

- FY2018: 51.0% 

- FY2019: 52.3% 

- FY2020: 50.8% 

- FY2021: 54.2% 

- FY2022: 57.0% 

- FY2023: 57.1% 

- FY2024: 56.8% 

- FY2025: 57.4% 

- FY2026: 57.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 26.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 26885000000; grossProfit 15435000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MCD.US: McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 56.8% to 57.4% during 2023–25; it earns 20.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 57.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.28981083023729065],[2018,0.30058559633865917],[2019,0.19054414715335732],[2020,0.15079223703603062],[2021,0.22976878967265235],[2022,0.19879453332577304],[2023,0.2299485982669414],[2024,0.21198808454245077],[2025,0.19917324190666774],[2026,0.2036395762019774]]; median 0.20781383037221407. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 80.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1821100000; owner earnings 4381900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1853700000; owner earnings 4702000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2741700000; owner earnings 4664600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 118914730.13180542; upkeep 2274785269.8681946; owner earnings 5368514730.131805. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022150396545318946.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1640800000; owner earnings 4841100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 171900000; upkeep 1868100000; owner earnings 7545200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022782696283730055.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1899200000; owner earnings 6148800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 379200000; upkeep 1978200000; owner earnings 8468800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04477611940298507.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 678000000; upkeep 2097000000; owner earnings 8223000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08245165997811017.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 1166000000; upkeep 2199000000; owner earnings 8563000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1361672311105921.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Incremental return on capital 0.8006445832610962, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,3058200000],[2017,3089200000],[2018,3255900000],[2019,3581900000],[2020,3752900000],[2021,3918600000],[2022,4168200000],[2023,4532800000],[2024,4870000000],[2025,5115000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 2056000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MCD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.255 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changes in commodity and other operating costs could adversely affect our results of operations." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Changes in commodity and other operating costs could adversely affect our results of operations.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09824167654523397. Price 242.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.52159644293881 → FY2025 11.95281965382468. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $112.57 per share

- 2016-11: $119.27 per share

- 2016-12: $121.72 per share

- 2017-01: $122.57 per share

- 2017-02: $127.65 per share

- 2017-03: $129.61 per share

- 2017-04: $139.93 per share

- 2017-05: $150.89 per share

- 2017-06: $153.16 per share

- 2017-07: $155.14 per share

- 2017-08: $159.97 per share

- 2017-09: $156.68 per share

- 2017-10: $166.91 per share

- 2017-11: $171.97 per share

- 2017-12: $172.12 per share

- 2018-01: $171.14 per share

- 2018-02: $157.74 per share

- 2018-03: $156.38 per share

- 2018-04: $167.44 per share

- 2018-05: $160.01 per share

- 2018-06: $156.69 per share

- 2018-07: $157.54 per share

- 2018-08: $162.23 per share

- 2018-09: $167.29 per share

- 2018-10: $176.90 per share

- 2018-11: $188.51 per share

- 2018-12: $177.57 per share

- 2019-01: $178.78 per share

- 2019-02: $183.84 per share

- 2019-03: $189.90 per share

- 2019-04: $197.57 per share

- 2019-05: $198.27 per share

- 2019-06: $207.66 per share

- 2019-07: $210.72 per share

- 2019-08: $217.97 per share

- 2019-09: $214.71 per share

- 2019-10: $196.70 per share

- 2019-11: $194.48 per share

- 2019-12: $197.61 per share

- 2020-01: $213.97 per share

- 2020-02: $194.17 per share

- 2020-03: $165.35 per share

- 2020-04: $187.56 per share

- 2020-05: $186.32 per share

- 2020-06: $184.47 per share

- 2020-07: $194.28 per share

- 2020-08: $213.52 per share

- 2020-09: $219.49 per share

- 2020-10: $213.00 per share

- 2020-11: $217.44 per share

- 2020-12: $214.58 per share

- 2021-01: $207.84 per share

- 2021-02: $206.14 per share

- 2021-03: $224.14 per share

- 2021-04: $236.08 per share

- 2021-05: $233.89 per share

- 2021-06: $230.99 per share

- 2021-07: $242.71 per share

- 2021-08: $237.46 per share

- 2021-09: $241.11 per share

- 2021-10: $245.55 per share

- 2021-11: $244.60 per share

- 2021-12: $268.07 per share

- 2022-01: $259.45 per share

- 2022-02: $244.77 per share

- 2022-03: $247.28 per share

- 2022-04: $249.16 per share

- 2022-05: $252.21 per share

- 2022-06: $246.88 per share

- 2022-07: $263.37 per share

- 2022-08: $252.28 per share

- 2022-09: $230.74 per share

- 2022-10: $272.66 per share

- 2022-11: $272.79 per share

- 2022-12: $263.53 per share

- 2023-01: $267.40 per share

- 2023-02: $263.91 per share

- 2023-03: $279.61 per share

- 2023-04: $295.75 per share

- 2023-05: $285.11 per share

- 2023-06: $298.41 per share

- 2023-07: $293.20 per share

- 2023-08: $281.15 per share

- 2023-09: $263.44 per share

- 2023-10: $262.17 per share

- 2023-11: $281.84 per share

- 2023-12: $296.51 per share

- 2024-01: $292.72 per share

- 2024-02: $292.28 per share

- 2024-03: $281.95 per share

- 2024-04: $273.04 per share

- 2024-05: $258.89 per share

- 2024-06: $254.84 per share

- 2024-07: $265.40 per share

- 2024-08: $288.66 per share

- 2024-09: $304.51 per share

- 2024-10: $292.11 per share

- 2024-11: $296.01 per share

- 2024-12: $289.89 per share

- 2025-01: $288.70 per share

- 2025-02: $308.33 per share

- 2025-03: $312.37 per share

- 2025-04: $319.65 per share

- 2025-05: $313.85 per share

- 2025-06: $292.17 per share

- 2025-07: $300.07 per share

- 2025-08: $313.54 per share

- 2025-09: $303.89 per share

- 2025-10: $298.43 per share

- 2025-11: $311.82 per share

- 2025-12: $305.63 per share

- 2026-01: $315.00 per share

- 2026-02: $341.06 per share

- 2026-03: $310.79 per share

- 2026-04: $293.59 per share

- 2026-05: $279.20 per share

- 2026-06: $270.31 per share

- 2026-07: $270.64 per share

- 2026-08: $263.54 per share

- 2026-09: $230.94 per share

- 2026-10: $235.81 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $55.64 per share, central $63.30 per share, high $73.50 per share

- FY2017: low $57.33 per share, central $65.00 per share, high $75.22 per share

- FY2018: low $53.20 per share, central $60.46 per share, high $70.12 per share

- FY2019: low $66.24 per share, central $75.41 per share, high $87.63 per share

- FY2020: low $65.50 per share, central $73.97 per share, high $85.24 per share

- FY2021: low $94.22 per share, central $111.10 per share, high $128.42 per share

- FY2022: low $92.06 per share, central $108.15 per share, high $125.38 per share

- FY2023: low $112.07 per share, central $133.84 per share, high $154.99 per share

- FY2024: low $133.28 per share, central $161.76 per share, high $188.39 per share

- FY2025: low $167.70 per share, central $235.79 per share, high $276.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:50.724Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.