# Moody’s (MCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:07.279Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $483.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $201.25 per share, central $268.27 per share, high $313.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value $268.27 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:07.279Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.9% at the stated quote. About 6.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.44×

- FY2018: 0.43×

- FY2019: 0.43×

- FY2020: 0.46×

- FY2021: 0.46×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.42×

- FY2025: 0.45×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.45×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 67.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 66.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 46.0%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 97.5%

- FY2022: 67.3%

- FY2023: 71.4%

- FY2024: 96.7%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4482.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.05×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 283.3% vs 96.7%

- Per-share earnings: 4.63 to 11.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $73B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $11B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.8%

- Per-share value change: $6.64

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $11.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.37

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $7.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $15B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 96.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.36

- FY2017: $5.15

- FY2018: $6.74

- FY2019: $7.42

- FY2020: $9.39

- FY2021: $11.78

- FY2022: $7.44

- FY2023: $8.73

- FY2024: $11.26

- FY2025: $13.67

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.0%

- FY2017: 2.9%

- FY2018: -1.6%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -3.0%

- FY2021: 1.4%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -2.8%

## Holders

- [Chuck Akre](https://gigainvestors.com/AC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Massey](https://gigainvestors.com/AP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bryan Lawrence](https://gigainvestors.com/OCL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dev Kantesaria](https://gigainvestors.com/VFC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Guy Spier](https://gigainvestors.com/aq): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chris Hohn](https://gigainvestors.com/tci): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years · sales +5.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.409Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-22: Moody's cuts profit forecast on market volatility after solid first quarter ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-cuts-profit-forecast-market-115320840.html))

- 2025-06-24: Revenue Diversification Aids Moody's Despite Rising Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/revenue-diversification-aids-moodys-despite-142600465.html))

- 2025-07-23: Moody's reports higher second-quarter profit on analytics unit strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-reports-higher-second-quarter-115218940.html))

- 2026-04-22: Moody’s Beats Q1 Forecasts as Revenue and Earnings Top Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/moody-beats-q1-forecasts-revenue-124433601.html))

- 2026-07-22: Moodys Corp (MCO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/moodys-corp-mco-q2-2026-210032325.html))

- 2026-08-26: Moody’s (MCO) Is Up 5.6% After Embedding Credit Intelligence Into Google’s Gemini Enterprise Platform ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/moody-mco-5-6-embedding-121447843.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $4.2B 

- FY2018: $4.4B 

- FY2019: $4.8B 

- FY2020: $5.4B 

- FY2021: $6.2B 

- FY2022: $5.5B 

- FY2023: $5.9B 

- FY2024: $7.1B 

- FY2025: $7.7B 

- FY2026: $8.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 68.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 69.1% 

- FY2017: 68.3% 

- FY2018: 68.8% 

- FY2019: 67.1% 

- FY2020: 68.4% 

- FY2021: 69.5% 

- FY2022: 64.4% 

- FY2023: 65.1% 

- FY2024: 66.4% 

- FY2025: 68.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial data & stock exchanges; annual sales are USD 7.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm#000162828026009136 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 7718000000; grossProfit 5260000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 65.1% to 68.2% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 65.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 66.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 68.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4604420018709074],[2017,4.333254972875226],[2018,2.8333886935905133],[2019,2.6003464000701566],[2020,2.341889110960669],[2021,0.9750524953079415],[2022,0.6731526731040979],[2023,0.7142678858569131],[2024,0.9673504215927335],[2025,1.0496867430033923]]; median 1.0123696191556668. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.7 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 115200000; owner earnings 278100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 90600000; owner earnings 1068300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 90400000; owner earnings 1410346096.7106261. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 69000000; owner earnings 1552358292.5122464. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 103000000; owner earnings 1895000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 139000000; owner earnings 2332000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 283000000; owner earnings 1422000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 271000000; owner earnings 1709000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 317000000; owner earnings 2172000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 326000000; owner earnings 2613000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,285100000],[2017,290400000],[2018,337200000],[2019,378000000],[2020,420000000],[2021,463000000],[2022,515000000],[2023,564000000],[2024,620000000],[2025,701000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 1706000000 USD.

### What could break it

"The Company Is Exposed to Reputation and Credibility Concerns." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); The Company Is Exposed to Reputation and Credibility Concerns.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23355955879482387. Price 483.69; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.748279252704031 → FY2025 14.52473596442468. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $100.52 per share

- 2016-11: $100.50 per share

- 2016-12: $94.27 per share

- 2017-01: $103.67 per share

- 2017-02: $111.37 per share

- 2017-03: $112.04 per share

- 2017-04: $118.32 per share

- 2017-05: $118.45 per share

- 2017-06: $121.68 per share

- 2017-07: $131.63 per share

- 2017-08: $134.03 per share

- 2017-09: $139.21 per share

- 2017-10: $142.41 per share

- 2017-11: $151.82 per share

- 2017-12: $147.61 per share

- 2018-01: $161.79 per share

- 2018-02: $166.88 per share

- 2018-03: $161.30 per share

- 2018-04: $162.20 per share

- 2018-05: $170.57 per share

- 2018-06: $170.56 per share

- 2018-07: $171.12 per share

- 2018-08: $178.02 per share

- 2018-09: $167.20 per share

- 2018-10: $145.48 per share

- 2018-11: $159.07 per share

- 2018-12: $140.04 per share

- 2019-01: $158.51 per share

- 2019-02: $173.12 per share

- 2019-03: $181.09 per share

- 2019-04: $196.62 per share

- 2019-05: $182.88 per share

- 2019-06: $195.31 per share

- 2019-07: $214.34 per share

- 2019-08: $215.58 per share

- 2019-09: $204.83 per share

- 2019-10: $220.69 per share

- 2019-11: $226.67 per share

- 2019-12: $237.41 per share

- 2020-01: $256.79 per share

- 2020-02: $240.03 per share

- 2020-03: $211.50 per share

- 2020-04: $243.90 per share

- 2020-05: $267.41 per share

- 2020-06: $274.73 per share

- 2020-07: $281.30 per share

- 2020-08: $294.64 per share

- 2020-09: $289.85 per share

- 2020-10: $262.90 per share

- 2020-11: $282.34 per share

- 2020-12: $290.24 per share

- 2021-01: $266.26 per share

- 2021-02: $274.89 per share

- 2021-03: $298.61 per share

- 2021-04: $326.71 per share

- 2021-05: $335.35 per share

- 2021-06: $362.37 per share

- 2021-07: $376.00 per share

- 2021-08: $380.77 per share

- 2021-09: $355.11 per share

- 2021-10: $404.15 per share

- 2021-11: $390.64 per share

- 2021-12: $390.58 per share

- 2022-01: $343.00 per share

- 2022-02: $322.03 per share

- 2022-03: $337.41 per share

- 2022-04: $316.48 per share

- 2022-05: $301.57 per share

- 2022-06: $271.97 per share

- 2022-07: $310.25 per share

- 2022-08: $284.52 per share

- 2022-09: $243.11 per share

- 2022-10: $264.87 per share

- 2022-11: $298.27 per share

- 2022-12: $278.62 per share

- 2023-01: $322.75 per share

- 2023-02: $290.15 per share

- 2023-03: $306.02 per share

- 2023-04: $313.12 per share

- 2023-05: $316.88 per share

- 2023-06: $347.72 per share

- 2023-07: $352.75 per share

- 2023-08: $336.80 per share

- 2023-09: $316.17 per share

- 2023-10: $308.00 per share

- 2023-11: $364.96 per share

- 2023-12: $390.56 per share

- 2024-01: $392.04 per share

- 2024-02: $379.42 per share

- 2024-03: $393.03 per share

- 2024-04: $370.33 per share

- 2024-05: $396.99 per share

- 2024-06: $420.93 per share

- 2024-07: $456.48 per share

- 2024-08: $487.74 per share

- 2024-09: $474.59 per share

- 2024-10: $454.04 per share

- 2024-11: $499.98 per share

- 2024-12: $473.37 per share

- 2025-01: $499.44 per share

- 2025-02: $503.94 per share

- 2025-03: $465.69 per share

- 2025-04: $453.12 per share

- 2025-05: $479.32 per share

- 2025-06: $501.59 per share

- 2025-07: $515.73 per share

- 2025-08: $509.76 per share

- 2025-09: $476.48 per share

- 2025-10: $480.30 per share

- 2025-11: $490.78 per share

- 2025-12: $510.85 per share

- 2026-01: $515.56 per share

- 2026-02: $477.59 per share

- 2026-03: $436.25 per share

- 2026-04: $461.85 per share

- 2026-05: $453.25 per share

- 2026-06: $452.92 per share

- 2026-07: $478.38 per share

- 2026-08: $504.64 per share

- 2026-09: $454.13 per share

- 2026-10: $464.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $66.90 per share, central $74.60 per share, high $84.86 per share

- FY2017: low $75.62 per share, central $90.87 per share, high $104.97 per share

- FY2018: low $86.66 per share, central $108.95 per share, high $125.85 per share

- FY2019: low $96.97 per share, central $124.23 per share, high $143.72 per share

- FY2020: low $124.80 per share, central $159.76 per share, high $184.83 per share

- FY2021: low $163.93 per share, central $234.80 per share, high $274.32 per share

- FY2022: low $113.50 per share, central $127.84 per share, high $146.93 per share

- FY2023: low $143.10 per share, central $179.98 per share, high $208.54 per share

- FY2024: low $168.47 per share, central $213.04 per share, high $246.57 per share

- FY2025: low $188.98 per share, central $250.00 per share, high $290.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:51.820Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1059556/000162828026009136/mco-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.