# Mondelez International (MDLZ.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MDLZ

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:08.162Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $63.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $43.47 per share, central $49.36 per share, high $57.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $49.36 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:08.162Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- Recent gross margin fell 10.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 10.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 12.9%

- FY2018: 12.1%

- FY2019: 16.1%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 16.1%

- FY2022: 10.3%

- FY2023: 24.4%

- FY2024: 23.2%

- FY2025: 12.1%

- LTM to Mar 2026: 12.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $20B

- Net income, five-year total: $19B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.1% vs 23.2%

- Per-share earnings: 1.85 to 3.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Market cap gain: $140M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.85

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.28

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $8.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $34B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.04

- FY2017: $1.85

- FY2018: $2.23

- FY2019: $2.69

- FY2020: $2.47

- FY2021: $3.04

- FY2022: $1.96

- FY2023: $3.62

- FY2024: $3.42

- FY2025: $1.89

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.70×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.0%

- FY2017: 0.4%

- FY2018: -1.0%

- FY2019: -0.1%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -0.4%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 5% since Oct 2023 · "Can Mondelez's Productivity Gains Offset Elevated Cocoa Cost Pressure?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.689Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-29: Mondelez projects steeper EPS decline as third-quarter volumes deteriorate ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mondelez-projects-steeper-eps-decline-124043275.html))

- 2026-01-30: Morgan Stanley Sees Cocoa Price Relief Improving EPS Visibility at Mondelez (MDLZ) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-cocoa-price-220035746.html))

- 2026-02-03: Mondelez International Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls, Hurt by High Cocoa Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ce1c4328-3877-30cd-b93d-45dcc11d8290/mondelez-international.html))

- 2026-03-27: Rothschild Cuts Mondelez (MDLZ) to Neutral, Cites Volume Weakness and Rising Competition ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rothschild-cuts-mondelez-mdlz-neutral-010341658.html))

- 2026-04-29: Mondelez Q1 Profit, Revenue Up; Confirms Full-year Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mondelez-q1-profit-revenue-confirms-full-year-outlook))

- 2026-07-29: Mondelez Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, 2026 Organic Sales Outlook Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mondelez-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-144500399.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: $26B 

- FY2018: $26B 

- FY2019: $26B 

- FY2020: $27B 

- FY2021: $29B 

- FY2022: $31B 

- FY2023: $36B 

- FY2024: $36B 

- FY2025: $39B 

- FY2026: $39B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 28.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: 38.7% 

- FY2018: 39.9% 

- FY2019: 40.0% 

- FY2020: 39.3% 

- FY2021: 39.2% 

- FY2022: 35.9% 

- FY2023: 38.2% 

- FY2024: 39.1% 

- FY2025: 28.4% 

- FY2026: 28.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in confectioners; annual sales are USD 38.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: revenue 38537000000; grossProfit 10935000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MDLZ.US: Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.4% to 39.1% during 2023–25; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.12865748538072871],[2018,0.12117631800380867],[2019,0.1605052945871179],[2020,0.12706156213565803],[2021,0.16054726371024214],[2022,0.10326528256171401],[2023,0.24376412210358425],[2024,0.2319588902972877],[2025,0.12063593039644195],[2026,0.12541187363422795]]; median 0.12785952375819337. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1224000000; owner earnings 1234000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1014000000; owner earnings 2630000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2018: growth capex 13008647.77478528; upkeep 1081991352.2252147; owner earnings 3046008647.774785. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004270719252320097.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 925000000; owner earnings 4051000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 863000000; owner earnings 3808000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 965000000; owner earnings 4448000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 906000000; owner earnings 2918000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1112000000; owner earnings 5062000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: growth capex 85000000; upkeep 1302000000; owner earnings 4611000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01843417913684667.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1279000000; owner earnings 2530000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,1094000000],[2017,1198000000],[2018,1359000000],[2019,1542000000],[2020,1678000000],[2021,1826000000],[2022,1985000000],[2023,2160000000],[2024,2349000000],[2025,2487000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 2385000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MDLZ.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.23700000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Commodity and other input prices are volatile" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); Commodity and other input prices are volatile

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04426657093844144. Price 63.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.060476481368357 → FY2025 1.9491525423728813. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $44.94 per share

- 2016-11: $41.24 per share

- 2016-12: $44.33 per share

- 2017-01: $44.28 per share

- 2017-02: $43.92 per share

- 2017-03: $43.08 per share

- 2017-04: $45.03 per share

- 2017-05: $46.59 per share

- 2017-06: $43.19 per share

- 2017-07: $44.02 per share

- 2017-08: $40.66 per share

- 2017-09: $40.66 per share

- 2017-10: $41.43 per share

- 2017-11: $42.94 per share

- 2017-12: $42.80 per share

- 2018-01: $44.40 per share

- 2018-02: $43.90 per share

- 2018-03: $41.73 per share

- 2018-04: $39.50 per share

- 2018-05: $39.27 per share

- 2018-06: $41.00 per share

- 2018-07: $43.38 per share

- 2018-08: $42.72 per share

- 2018-09: $42.96 per share

- 2018-10: $41.98 per share

- 2018-11: $44.98 per share

- 2018-12: $40.03 per share

- 2019-01: $46.26 per share

- 2019-02: $47.16 per share

- 2019-03: $49.92 per share

- 2019-04: $50.85 per share

- 2019-05: $50.85 per share

- 2019-06: $53.90 per share

- 2019-07: $53.49 per share

- 2019-08: $55.22 per share

- 2019-09: $55.32 per share

- 2019-10: $52.45 per share

- 2019-11: $52.54 per share

- 2019-12: $55.08 per share

- 2020-01: $57.38 per share

- 2020-02: $52.80 per share

- 2020-03: $50.08 per share

- 2020-04: $51.44 per share

- 2020-05: $52.12 per share

- 2020-06: $51.13 per share

- 2020-07: $55.49 per share

- 2020-08: $58.42 per share

- 2020-09: $57.45 per share

- 2020-10: $53.12 per share

- 2020-11: $57.45 per share

- 2020-12: $58.47 per share

- 2021-01: $55.44 per share

- 2021-02: $53.16 per share

- 2021-03: $58.53 per share

- 2021-04: $60.81 per share

- 2021-05: $63.53 per share

- 2021-06: $62.44 per share

- 2021-07: $63.26 per share

- 2021-08: $62.07 per share

- 2021-09: $58.18 per share

- 2021-10: $60.74 per share

- 2021-11: $58.94 per share

- 2021-12: $66.31 per share

- 2022-01: $67.03 per share

- 2022-02: $65.48 per share

- 2022-03: $62.78 per share

- 2022-04: $64.48 per share

- 2022-05: $63.56 per share

- 2022-06: $62.09 per share

- 2022-07: $64.04 per share

- 2022-08: $61.86 per share

- 2022-09: $54.83 per share

- 2022-10: $61.48 per share

- 2022-11: $67.61 per share

- 2022-12: $66.65 per share

- 2023-01: $65.44 per share

- 2023-02: $65.18 per share

- 2023-03: $69.72 per share

- 2023-04: $76.72 per share

- 2023-05: $73.41 per share

- 2023-06: $72.94 per share

- 2023-07: $74.13 per share

- 2023-08: $71.26 per share

- 2023-09: $69.40 per share

- 2023-10: $66.21 per share

- 2023-11: $71.06 per share

- 2023-12: $72.43 per share

- 2024-01: $75.27 per share

- 2024-02: $73.07 per share

- 2024-03: $70.00 per share

- 2024-04: $71.94 per share

- 2024-05: $68.53 per share

- 2024-06: $65.44 per share

- 2024-07: $68.35 per share

- 2024-08: $71.81 per share

- 2024-09: $73.67 per share

- 2024-10: $68.48 per share

- 2024-11: $64.95 per share

- 2024-12: $59.73 per share

- 2025-01: $57.99 per share

- 2025-02: $64.23 per share

- 2025-03: $67.85 per share

- 2025-04: $68.13 per share

- 2025-05: $67.49 per share

- 2025-06: $67.44 per share

- 2025-07: $64.69 per share

- 2025-08: $61.44 per share

- 2025-09: $62.47 per share

- 2025-10: $57.46 per share

- 2025-11: $57.57 per share

- 2025-12: $53.83 per share

- 2026-01: $58.47 per share

- 2026-02: $61.58 per share

- 2026-03: $57.64 per share

- 2026-04: $61.44 per share

- 2026-05: $61.17 per share

- 2026-06: $57.84 per share

- 2026-07: $62.31 per share

- 2026-08: $62.07 per share

- 2026-09: $57.82 per share

- 2026-10: $61.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $15.19 per share, central $17.18 per share, high $19.82 per share

- FY2017: low $18.31 per share, central $20.81 per share, high $24.14 per share

- FY2018: low $19.77 per share, central $22.44 per share, high $26.00 per share

- FY2019: low $23.30 per share, central $26.44 per share, high $30.62 per share

- FY2020: low $25.82 per share, central $29.08 per share, high $33.43 per share

- FY2021: low $33.93 per share, central $38.32 per share, high $44.16 per share

- FY2022: low $36.54 per share, central $41.45 per share, high $47.99 per share

- FY2023: low $41.96 per share, central $47.64 per share, high $55.19 per share

- FY2024: low $42.02 per share, central $47.75 per share, high $55.38 per share

- FY2025: low $42.11 per share, central $47.77 per share, high $55.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:52.736Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103982/000162828026005345/mdlz-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.