# Medpace Holdings (MEDP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MEDP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:08.807Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $628.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $259.27 per share, central $370.88 per share, high $433.12 per share. Buy at or below the central value $370.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:08.807Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 39.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 24.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 32.6%

- FY2017: 63.6%

- FY2018: 74.0%

- FY2019: 13.1%

- FY2020: 15.4%

- FY2021: 16.3%

- FY2022: 40.7%

- FY2023: 39.2%

- FY2024: 38.9%

- FY2025: 74.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 163.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 63.6% vs 39.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.37 to 12.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.8%

- Market cap gain: $14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$450M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 55.5%

- Per-share value change: $12.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.37

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.63

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.62

- Average buyback yield: 4.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 63.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 39.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.37

- FY2017: $0.98

- FY2018: $1.98

- FY2019: $2.67

- FY2020: $3.86

- FY2021: $4.82

- FY2022: $7.29

- FY2023: $8.88

- FY2024: $12.63

- FY2025: $15.28

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.52×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.0%

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -8.9%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -10.5%

- FY2023: -9.1%

- FY2024: -9.7%

- FY2025: -13.3%

## Holders

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.3% a year for ten years · sales +10%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.878Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-10: MEDP Q1 Earnings Call: Outperformance Driven by Revenue Upside, Cautious Outlook Amid Funding Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medp-q1-earnings-call-outperformance-212358343.html))

- 2025-07-22: MEDP Q2 Deep Dive: Backlog Conversion, Lower Cancellations, and Therapeutic Mix Drive Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medp-q2-deep-dive-backlog-184421150.html))

- 2025-10-22: Medpace shares soar on blowout Q3 results, solid 2025 outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medpace-shares-soar-blowout-q3-212333784.html))

- 2026-02-10: MEDP Q4 Deep Dive: Cancellations and Metabolic Trial Mix Pressure Margins Despite Strong Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medp-q4-deep-dive-cancellations-153554599.html))

- 2026-04-23: Medpace sees $1.94B backlog conversion over next 12 months as cancellations rise ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579135-medpace-sees-1_94b-backlog-conversion-over-next-12-months-as-cancellations-rise?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-25: Why Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Is Up 11.8% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Expanding Backlog ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-medpace-holdings-medp-11-081346756.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: $436M 

- FY2018: $705M 

- FY2019: $861M 

- FY2020: $926M 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $1.9B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

- FY2026: $2.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2016: 40.8% 

- FY2017: 40.1% 

- FY2018: 30.6% 

- FY2019: 28.5% 

- FY2020: 30.1% 

- FY2021: 28.7% 

- FY2022: 29.6% 

- FY2023: 27.8% 

- FY2024: 31.1% 

- FY2025: 30.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in diagnostics & research; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: revenue 2530234000; grossProfit 760618000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MEDP.US: Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas. It provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services. In addition, the company offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. Medpace Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.8% to 31.1% during 2023–25; it earns 39.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.32556131260794474],[2017,0.636484067058091],[2018,0.7404969924091019],[2019,0.1308660813264334],[2020,0.1538181114754811],[2021,0.16264027998047492],[2022,0.40663787549029273],[2023,0.39225664487793366],[2024,0.3894095756830713],[2025,0.7466285136434779]]; median 0.3908331102805025. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 30% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.28725630855663237],[2022,0.2961912224417053],[2023,0.27812775407483764]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.7% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 2 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 13537000; owner earnings 58002000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 12293000; owner earnings 73303000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 16024000; owner earnings 95962000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 17912000; owner earnings 105720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2020: growth capex 8055225.9430637285; upkeep 23284774.05693627; owner earnings 141627225.94306374. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.056876253060990194.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2021: growth capex 7152000; upkeep 21119000; owner earnings 181848000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03932954995380757.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2022: growth capex 14538000; upkeep 22341000; owner earnings 245368000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05924977992240227.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: growth capex 10320000; upkeep 26328000; owner earnings 282810000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03649093030656624.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: growth capex 7297000; upkeep 29251000; owner earnings 404386000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01804464051673401.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: growth capex 3232000; upkeep 28124000; owner earnings 451123000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007164343205733248.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,22074000],[2023,11378000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 917389000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MEDP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.756 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 24.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.26090492470872184. Price 628.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.73492630638678 → FY2025 15.278321536221085. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $29.02 per share

- 2016-11: $35.68 per share

- 2016-12: $36.07 per share

- 2017-01: $34.89 per share

- 2017-02: $28.95 per share

- 2017-03: $29.85 per share

- 2017-04: $31.71 per share

- 2017-05: $27.82 per share

- 2017-06: $29.00 per share

- 2017-07: $27.43 per share

- 2017-08: $32.64 per share

- 2017-09: $31.90 per share

- 2017-10: $37.47 per share

- 2017-11: $33.31 per share

- 2017-12: $36.26 per share

- 2018-01: $36.73 per share

- 2018-02: $32.05 per share

- 2018-03: $34.91 per share

- 2018-04: $36.99 per share

- 2018-05: $42.16 per share

- 2018-06: $43.00 per share

- 2018-07: $61.37 per share

- 2018-08: $59.79 per share

- 2018-09: $59.91 per share

- 2018-10: $52.10 per share

- 2018-11: $61.91 per share

- 2018-12: $52.93 per share

- 2019-01: $64.40 per share

- 2019-02: $54.95 per share

- 2019-03: $58.97 per share

- 2019-04: $56.17 per share

- 2019-05: $53.98 per share

- 2019-06: $65.42 per share

- 2019-07: $78.76 per share

- 2019-08: $80.91 per share

- 2019-09: $84.04 per share

- 2019-10: $73.63 per share

- 2019-11: $76.67 per share

- 2019-12: $84.06 per share

- 2020-01: $85.55 per share

- 2020-02: $89.94 per share

- 2020-03: $73.38 per share

- 2020-04: $79.86 per share

- 2020-05: $92.82 per share

- 2020-06: $93.02 per share

- 2020-07: $119.35 per share

- 2020-08: $129.79 per share

- 2020-09: $111.75 per share

- 2020-10: $110.94 per share

- 2020-11: $128.36 per share

- 2020-12: $139.20 per share

- 2021-01: $132.79 per share

- 2021-02: $162.43 per share

- 2021-03: $164.05 per share

- 2021-04: $169.68 per share

- 2021-05: $167.06 per share

- 2021-06: $176.63 per share

- 2021-07: $175.94 per share

- 2021-08: $182.35 per share

- 2021-09: $189.28 per share

- 2021-10: $226.55 per share

- 2021-11: $207.41 per share

- 2021-12: $217.64 per share

- 2022-01: $177.46 per share

- 2022-02: $152.97 per share

- 2022-03: $163.59 per share

- 2022-04: $133.57 per share

- 2022-05: $143.24 per share

- 2022-06: $149.67 per share

- 2022-07: $169.53 per share

- 2022-08: $147.61 per share

- 2022-09: $157.17 per share

- 2022-10: $221.98 per share

- 2022-11: $209.89 per share

- 2022-12: $212.41 per share

- 2023-01: $221.07 per share

- 2023-02: $193.88 per share

- 2023-03: $188.05 per share

- 2023-04: $200.14 per share

- 2023-05: $206.97 per share

- 2023-06: $240.17 per share

- 2023-07: $253.17 per share

- 2023-08: $270.27 per share

- 2023-09: $242.13 per share

- 2023-10: $242.67 per share

- 2023-11: $270.72 per share

- 2023-12: $306.53 per share

- 2024-01: $291.58 per share

- 2024-02: $397.52 per share

- 2024-03: $404.15 per share

- 2024-04: $388.35 per share

- 2024-05: $386.34 per share

- 2024-06: $411.85 per share

- 2024-07: $382.52 per share

- 2024-08: $355.27 per share

- 2024-09: $333.80 per share

- 2024-10: $314.22 per share

- 2024-11: $340.63 per share

- 2024-12: $332.23 per share

- 2025-01: $349.15 per share

- 2025-02: $327.32 per share

- 2025-03: $304.69 per share

- 2025-04: $308.39 per share

- 2025-05: $294.90 per share

- 2025-06: $313.86 per share

- 2025-07: $427.20 per share

- 2025-08: $475.51 per share

- 2025-09: $514.16 per share

- 2025-10: $584.91 per share

- 2025-11: $592.46 per share

- 2025-12: $561.65 per share

- 2026-01: $582.48 per share

- 2026-02: $451.76 per share

- 2026-03: $480.19 per share

- 2026-04: $418.66 per share

- 2026-05: $447.11 per share

- 2026-06: $529.59 per share

- 2026-07: $577.11 per share

- 2026-08: $593.99 per share

- 2026-09: $624.18 per share

- 2026-10: $628.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $19.91 per share, central $22.59 per share, high $26.17 per share

- FY2018: low $31.85 per share, central $36.21 per share, high $42.01 per share

- FY2019: low $37.51 per share, central $42.26 per share, high $48.58 per share

- FY2020: low $43.80 per share, central $48.89 per share, high $55.67 per share

- FY2021: low $62.30 per share, central $69.28 per share, high $78.58 per share

- FY2022: low $72.49 per share, central $82.49 per share, high $95.79 per share

- FY2023: low $129.68 per share, central $182.46 per share, high $213.19 per share

- FY2024: low $171.87 per share, central $241.73 per share, high $280.69 per share

- FY2025: low $224.24 per share, central $320.18 per share, high $373.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668397/000166839726000006/medp-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.