# MercadoLibre (MELI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MELI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:09.113Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,856.98 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $724.91 per share, central $993.06 per share, high $1,149.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $993.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:09.113Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: -0.05×

- FY2019: -0.07×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 81.2%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: -67.7%

- FY2019: -4.0%

- FY2020: 10.2%

- FY2021: 11.1%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 32.0%

- FY2024: 28.3%

- FY2025: 19.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 42.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 81.2% vs 28.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.40 to 37.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: $95B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 41.1%

- Per-share value change: $35.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.40

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $37.69

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.43

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $131M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 81.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 28.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.09

- FY2017: $0.31

- FY2018: -$0.82

- FY2019: -$3.53

- FY2020: -$0.02

- FY2021: $1.67

- FY2022: $9.39

- FY2023: $19.35

- FY2024: $37.69

- FY2025: $39.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -23.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.50×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.07×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: -15.3%

- FY2018: -11.9%

- FY2019: -13.0%

- FY2020: -18.1%

- FY2021: -8.7%

- FY2022: -17.9%

- FY2023: -23.6%

- FY2024: -23.8%

- FY2025: -23.7%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since Jun 2025 · "MercadoLibre (MELI) Is Down 13.1% After Margin Squeeze From Logistics And Fintech Investments" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +21.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.928Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-14: MercadoLibre (NasdaqGS:MELI) To Increase Brazil Investments By 48% In 2025 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mercadolibre-nasdaqgs-meli-increase-brazil-173355556.html))

- 2025-05-07: MercadoLibre beats profit estimates in first quarter as Argentina business booms ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/mercadolibre-beats-profit-estimates-first-200910568.html))

- 2025-08-13: MELI Q2 Deep Dive: E-commerce Initiatives Drive Top-Line Strength, Margin Pressures Persist ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meli-q2-deep-dive-e-030219950.html))

- 2026-02-25: MercadoLibre Revenue Beats, Margins Weigh on Shares ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mercadolibre-revenue-beats-margins-weigh-121842129.html))

- 2026-05-13: MercadoLibre (MELI) Is Down 13.1% After Margin Squeeze From Logistics And Fintech Investments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mercadolibre-meli-down-13-1-161353110.html))

- 2026-08-05: MercadoLibre beats estimates but shares dip on margin concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mercadolibre-beats-estimates-shares-dip-204517323.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +21.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.4B 

- FY2019: $2.3B 

- FY2020: $4.0B 

- FY2021: $7.1B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $21B 

- FY2025: $29B 

- FY2026: $35B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 44.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 63.6% 

- FY2017: 59.2% 

- FY2018: 48.4% 

- FY2019: 48.0% 

- FY2020: 43.0% 

- FY2021: 42.5% 

- FY2022: 48.2% 

- FY2023: 50.2% 

- FY2024: 46.1% 

- FY2025: 44.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are USD 28.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 28893000000; grossProfit 12858000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MELI.US: MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform. It also provides Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which grants loans and obtains better funding alternatives; and Mercado Mercado Envios that facilitates the shipping of goods from the Company and sellers to buyers. In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, where users can list vehicles, properties, and services; Mercado Ads, an advertising platform, which enables retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the platform. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.5% to 50.2% during 2023–25; it earns 18.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 50.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 44.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.8117193353234395],[2017,8.663536238749408],[2018,-0.6766531477669161],[2019,-0.040326710600472],[2020,0.10229109932195263],[2021,0.111450233281493],[2022,0.17122966978807294],[2023,0.31964126559714795],[2024,0.28312364177442373],[2025,0.19260661313146007]]; median 0.1819181414597665. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 38.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 42.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 31427690.682289243; upkeep 45942309.31771076; owner earnings 119445690.68228924. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2631128046794339.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 33963000; upkeep 40921000; owner earnings 13780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.4646589259796805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 405496000; upkeep 204000000; owner earnings 83000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.885493975903614.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 403000000; owner earnings 482000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1078838174273859.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 509000000; owner earnings 1002000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 243000000; upkeep 617000000; owner earnings 1911000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1271585557299843.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 772000000; upkeep 571000000; owner earnings 1997000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.38657986980470704.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Incremental return on capital 0.42896843125022505, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,24419000],[2017,26496000],[2018,6624000],[2019,2844000],[2020,3356000],[2021,9258566000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000 USD.

### What could break it

"A rise in interest rates may negatively affect our Mercado Pago payment volume" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); A rise in interest rates may negatively affect our Mercado Pago payment volume

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 36.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2054064441431751. Price 1856.98; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.7988398296533563 → FY2025 39.390642345591445. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $168.01 per share

- 2016-11: $157.82 per share

- 2016-12: $156.14 per share

- 2017-01: $185.39 per share

- 2017-02: $210.87 per share

- 2017-03: $211.47 per share

- 2017-04: $228.91 per share

- 2017-05: $275.11 per share

- 2017-06: $250.88 per share

- 2017-07: $288.42 per share

- 2017-08: $258.47 per share

- 2017-09: $258.93 per share

- 2017-10: $240.31 per share

- 2017-11: $275.14 per share

- 2017-12: $314.66 per share

- 2018-01: $387.10 per share

- 2018-02: $387.97 per share

- 2018-03: $356.39 per share

- 2018-04: $339.61 per share

- 2018-05: $290.83 per share

- 2018-06: $298.93 per share

- 2018-07: $342.91 per share

- 2018-08: $342.41 per share

- 2018-09: $340.47 per share

- 2018-10: $324.50 per share

- 2018-11: $351.97 per share

- 2018-12: $292.85 per share

- 2019-01: $364.00 per share

- 2019-02: $458.79 per share

- 2019-03: $507.73 per share

- 2019-04: $484.14 per share

- 2019-05: $570.52 per share

- 2019-06: $611.77 per share

- 2019-07: $621.42 per share

- 2019-08: $594.60 per share

- 2019-09: $551.23 per share

- 2019-10: $521.52 per share

- 2019-11: $580.58 per share

- 2019-12: $571.94 per share

- 2020-01: $663.00 per share

- 2020-02: $616.03 per share

- 2020-03: $488.58 per share

- 2020-04: $583.51 per share

- 2020-05: $851.67 per share

- 2020-06: $985.77 per share

- 2020-07: $1,124.62 per share

- 2020-08: $1,168.59 per share

- 2020-09: $1,082.48 per share

- 2020-10: $1,214.05 per share

- 2020-11: $1,553.33 per share

- 2020-12: $1,675.22 per share

- 2021-01: $1,779.51 per share

- 2021-02: $1,638.11 per share

- 2021-03: $1,472.14 per share

- 2021-04: $1,570.98 per share

- 2021-05: $1,358.67 per share

- 2021-06: $1,557.79 per share

- 2021-07: $1,568.70 per share

- 2021-08: $1,867.45 per share

- 2021-09: $1,679.40 per share

- 2021-10: $1,481.02 per share

- 2021-11: $1,188.41 per share

- 2021-12: $1,348.40 per share

- 2022-01: $1,132.06 per share

- 2022-02: $1,126.65 per share

- 2022-03: $1,189.48 per share

- 2022-04: $973.63 per share

- 2022-05: $785.88 per share

- 2022-06: $636.87 per share

- 2022-07: $813.71 per share

- 2022-08: $855.36 per share

- 2022-09: $827.78 per share

- 2022-10: $901.62 per share

- 2022-11: $930.99 per share

- 2022-12: $846.24 per share

- 2023-01: $1,181.69 per share

- 2023-02: $1,220.00 per share

- 2023-03: $1,318.06 per share

- 2023-04: $1,277.49 per share

- 2023-05: $1,239.00 per share

- 2023-06: $1,184.60 per share

- 2023-07: $1,238.05 per share

- 2023-08: $1,372.36 per share

- 2023-09: $1,267.88 per share

- 2023-10: $1,240.74 per share

- 2023-11: $1,620.46 per share

- 2023-12: $1,571.54 per share

- 2024-01: $1,711.81 per share

- 2024-02: $1,595.30 per share

- 2024-03: $1,511.96 per share

- 2024-04: $1,458.70 per share

- 2024-05: $1,725.58 per share

- 2024-06: $1,643.40 per share

- 2024-07: $1,668.90 per share

- 2024-08: $2,061.66 per share

- 2024-09: $2,051.96 per share

- 2024-10: $2,037.18 per share

- 2024-11: $1,985.17 per share

- 2024-12: $1,700.44 per share

- 2025-01: $1,922.19 per share

- 2025-02: $2,121.87 per share

- 2025-03: $1,950.87 per share

- 2025-04: $2,330.85 per share

- 2025-05: $2,563.29 per share

- 2025-06: $2,613.63 per share

- 2025-07: $2,373.89 per share

- 2025-08: $2,472.91 per share

- 2025-09: $2,336.94 per share

- 2025-10: $2,327.26 per share

- 2025-11: $2,071.78 per share

- 2025-12: $2,014.26 per share

- 2026-01: $2,147.79 per share

- 2026-02: $1,757.58 per share

- 2026-03: $1,729.02 per share

- 2026-04: $1,792.63 per share

- 2026-05: $1,695.65 per share

- 2026-06: $1,697.39 per share

- 2026-07: $1,877.95 per share

- 2026-08: $1,936.20 per share

- 2026-09: $1,728.53 per share

- 2026-10: $1,876.04 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $42.34 per share, central $55.91 per share, high $63.82 per share

- FY2017: low $52.11 per share, central $61.44 per share, high $69.51 per share

- FY2018: low $61.97 per share, central $67.81 per share, high $75.58 per share

- FY2019: low $66.14 per share, central $66.94 per share, high $68.01 per share

- FY2023: low $114.93 per share, central $135.19 per share, high $146.99 per share

- FY2024: low $314.89 per share, central $421.64 per share, high $483.81 per share

- FY2025: low $626.75 per share, central $846.96 per share, high $975.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:53.700Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1099590/000109959026000006/meli-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.