# Methanex (MEOH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MEOH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:09.322Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $63.61 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $47.51 per share, central $53.77 per share, high $62.10 per share. Buy at or below the central value $53.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:09.322Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.54×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.8%

- FY2017: 14.4%

- FY2018: 24.8%

- FY2019: 5.4%

- FY2020: -1.2%

- FY2021: 16.4%

- FY2022: 9.1%

- FY2023: 5.8%

- FY2024: 6.5%

- FY2025: 6.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.24×

- FY2022: 0.56×

- FY2023: 0.67×

- FY2024: 1.85×

- FY2025: 3.38×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.4% vs 6.0%

- Per-share earnings: 2.23 to 2.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: -$1.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $526M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.0%

- Per-share value change: $0.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.43

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 4.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.14

- FY2017: $3.64

- FY2018: $7.03

- FY2019: $1.14

- FY2020: -$2.06

- FY2021: $6.33

- FY2022: $4.94

- FY2023: $2.57

- FY2024: $2.43

- FY2025: $1.10

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: -0.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 10.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.8%

- FY2017: -10.2%

- FY2018: -8.9%

- FY2019: -8.2%

- FY2020: -10.8%

- FY2021: -8.4%

- FY2022: -9.4%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -8.7%

- FY2025: -10.4%

## Holders

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.1% a year for ten years · sales +18.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:08.997Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-03: MEOH's Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Average Realized Prices Fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meohs-q3-earnings-miss-estimates-171000074.html))

- 2026-03-05: Methanex Swings To Q4 Loss On Impairment Charge, Shares Fall In After-Hours Trading ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/methanex-swings-q4-loss-impairment-223510092.html))

- 2026-04-29: Methanex Q1 Adjusted Profit Falls 74%, Misses Estimates Despite Higher Revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/methanex-q1-adjusted-profit-falls-212942736.html))

- 2026-05-04: MEOH Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Y/Y Methanol Pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/meoh-q1-earnings-miss-estimates-132400804.html))

- 2026-06-30: Methanex to Indefinitely Idle Titan Plant as Gas Supply Contract Fails ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/methanex-indefinitely-idle-titan-plant-145900530.html))

- 2026-07-29: Methanex's Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Methanol Pricing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/methanexs-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-120900862.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +18.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-05.

- FY2017: $3.1B 

- FY2018: $4.5B 

- FY2019: $3.3B 

- FY2020: $2.6B 

- FY2021: $4.4B 

- FY2022: $4.3B 

- FY2023: $3.7B 

- FY2024: $3.7B 

- FY2025: $3.6B 

- FY2026: $4.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 25.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-05.

- FY2016: 25.3% 

- FY2017: 34.3% 

- FY2018: 29.9% 

- FY2019: 23.8% 

- FY2020: 23.2% 

- FY2021: 24.4% 

- FY2022: 20.1% 

- FY2023: 17.6% 

- FY2024: 19.1% 

- FY2025: 25.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in chemicals; annual sales are USD 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: revenue 3589224000; grossProfit 909089000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.6% to 25.3% during 2023–25; it earns 6.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.007671963650900893],[2017,0.1444476537675037],[2018,0.2479157703384902],[2019,0.05362162199916899],[2020,-0.01218381205957896],[2021,0.16377428949291786],[2022,0.09149589800823278],[2023,0.058437408428319994],[2024,0.06541972990865273],[2025,0.05984889790736622]]; median 0.06263431390800947. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 99947000; owner earnings 115562000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 103170000; owner earnings 445190000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 244476000; owner earnings 569809000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 323860000; owner earnings 108034000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 245437000; owner earnings 600005000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 577381000; owner earnings 196955171.68950957. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 448453000; owner earnings 117517000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 174072000; owner earnings 302668176.1313912. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 100725928; owner earnings 270353439.7493819. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,98797000],[2017,101497000],[2018,105676000],[2019,107876000],[2020,36004000],[2021,24634000],[2022,43955000],[2023,49378000],[2024,49867000],[2025,54489456]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MEOH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.3950000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.031129995952538958. Price 63.61; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.32000756808494063 → FY2025 3.723448486568382. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $36.35 per share

- 2016-11: $44.00 per share

- 2016-12: $43.80 per share

- 2017-01: $50.05 per share

- 2017-02: $51.00 per share

- 2017-03: $46.90 per share

- 2017-04: $45.90 per share

- 2017-05: $41.25 per share

- 2017-06: $44.05 per share

- 2017-07: $44.30 per share

- 2017-08: $51.10 per share

- 2017-09: $50.30 per share

- 2017-10: $48.75 per share

- 2017-11: $53.25 per share

- 2017-12: $60.55 per share

- 2018-01: $62.95 per share

- 2018-02: $54.95 per share

- 2018-03: $60.65 per share

- 2018-04: $60.40 per share

- 2018-05: $68.20 per share

- 2018-06: $70.70 per share

- 2018-07: $69.10 per share

- 2018-08: $72.90 per share

- 2018-09: $79.10 per share

- 2018-10: $64.73 per share

- 2018-11: $55.44 per share

- 2018-12: $48.17 per share

- 2019-01: $54.57 per share

- 2019-02: $56.40 per share

- 2019-03: $56.86 per share

- 2019-04: $54.92 per share

- 2019-05: $41.47 per share

- 2019-06: $45.46 per share

- 2019-07: $39.31 per share

- 2019-08: $32.46 per share

- 2019-09: $35.47 per share

- 2019-10: $37.93 per share

- 2019-11: $37.37 per share

- 2019-12: $38.63 per share

- 2020-01: $32.45 per share

- 2020-02: $28.85 per share

- 2020-03: $12.17 per share

- 2020-04: $15.88 per share

- 2020-05: $16.11 per share

- 2020-06: $18.08 per share

- 2020-07: $18.50 per share

- 2020-08: $22.25 per share

- 2020-09: $24.40 per share

- 2020-10: $29.67 per share

- 2020-11: $41.80 per share

- 2020-12: $46.08 per share

- 2021-01: $33.11 per share

- 2021-02: $38.54 per share

- 2021-03: $36.80 per share

- 2021-04: $36.56 per share

- 2021-05: $35.55 per share

- 2021-06: $33.07 per share

- 2021-07: $33.66 per share

- 2021-08: $36.71 per share

- 2021-09: $46.04 per share

- 2021-10: $44.78 per share

- 2021-11: $39.99 per share

- 2021-12: $39.55 per share

- 2022-01: $45.50 per share

- 2022-02: $52.19 per share

- 2022-03: $54.56 per share

- 2022-04: $50.16 per share

- 2022-05: $49.45 per share

- 2022-06: $38.23 per share

- 2022-07: $37.20 per share

- 2022-08: $36.10 per share

- 2022-09: $31.87 per share

- 2022-10: $34.89 per share

- 2022-11: $39.01 per share

- 2022-12: $37.86 per share

- 2023-01: $47.33 per share

- 2023-02: $50.43 per share

- 2023-03: $46.53 per share

- 2023-04: $44.79 per share

- 2023-05: $40.87 per share

- 2023-06: $41.37 per share

- 2023-07: $45.04 per share

- 2023-08: $42.55 per share

- 2023-09: $45.05 per share

- 2023-10: $41.25 per share

- 2023-11: $42.69 per share

- 2023-12: $47.36 per share

- 2024-01: $44.32 per share

- 2024-02: $44.84 per share

- 2024-03: $44.63 per share

- 2024-04: $47.91 per share

- 2024-05: $53.68 per share

- 2024-06: $48.26 per share

- 2024-07: $48.59 per share

- 2024-08: $46.69 per share

- 2024-09: $41.34 per share

- 2024-10: $39.17 per share

- 2024-11: $46.88 per share

- 2024-12: $49.94 per share

- 2025-01: $52.20 per share

- 2025-02: $44.04 per share

- 2025-03: $35.09 per share

- 2025-04: $31.29 per share

- 2025-05: $32.64 per share

- 2025-06: $33.10 per share

- 2025-07: $33.44 per share

- 2025-08: $35.51 per share

- 2025-09: $39.76 per share

- 2025-10: $39.32 per share

- 2025-11: $35.61 per share

- 2025-12: $39.72 per share

- 2026-01: $47.72 per share

- 2026-02: $50.53 per share

- 2026-03: $59.54 per share

- 2026-04: $65.54 per share

- 2026-05: $59.10 per share

- 2026-06: $46.15 per share

- 2026-07: $55.55 per share

- 2026-08: $58.95 per share

- 2026-09: $58.68 per share

- 2026-10: $62.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.50 per share, central $11.66 per share, high $13.22 per share

- FY2017: low $25.90 per share, central $28.97 per share, high $33.06 per share

- FY2018: low $45.62 per share, central $64.29 per share, high $75.16 per share

- FY2019: low $36.38 per share, central $47.42 per share, high $54.76 per share

- FY2020: low $32.23 per share, central $35.26 per share, high $39.29 per share

- FY2021: low $91.51 per share, central $102.60 per share, high $117.37 per share

- FY2022: low $45.59 per share, central $61.60 per share, high $70.92 per share

- FY2023: low $24.77 per share, central $27.50 per share, high $31.12 per share

- FY2024: low $35.42 per share, central $39.21 per share, high $44.26 per share

- FY2025: low $43.41 per share, central $49.02 per share, high $56.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:53.891Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886977/000162828026015362/mx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.