# Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGAM.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:53.651Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 279.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 120.77 per share, central GBX 130.88 per share, high GBX 144.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 130.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:53.651Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 33.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 40.5%

- FY2017: 44.5%

- FY2018: 32.5%

- FY2019: 45.1%

- FY2020: 66.5%

- FY2021: 35.2%

- FY2022: 25.1%

- FY2023: 15.8%

- FY2024: 15.9%

- FY2025: 28.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 149M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 281M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 0.45×

- FY2024: -0.22×

- FY2025: -0.70×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 40.5% vs 15.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.18 to 0.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP -204M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 259M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.33

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 176M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 537M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 40.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.18

- FY2017: GBP 0.38

- FY2018: GBP 0.16

- FY2019: GBP 0.26

- FY2020: GBP -0.08

- FY2021: GBP 0.26

- FY2022: GBP 0.31

- FY2023: GBP 0.16

- FY2024: GBP 0.18

- FY2025: GBP 0.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.53×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: 5.2%

- FY2018: -5.3%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -14.0%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: 6.7%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -10.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 22% since Nov 2021 · "UK's Morgan Advanced Materials tumbles on weak outlook, chip slump" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales -9.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.861Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-14: UK's Morgan Advanced Materials tumbles on weak outlook, chip slump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uks-morgan-advanced-materials-tumbles-083318965.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31/reports/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: GBP 989M 

- FY2017: GBP 1.0B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.0B 

- FY2020: GBP 911M 

- FY2021: GBP 951M 

- FY2022: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2025: GBP 997M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31/reports/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 13.1% 

- FY2017: 13.2% 

- FY2018: 12.1% 

- FY2019: 25.9% 

- FY2020: 20.2% 

- FY2021: 21.8% 

- FY2022: 22.0% 

- FY2023: 10.8% 

- FY2024: 73.9% 

- FY2025: 19.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are GBP 996.6 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 996600000; grossProfit 198300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.8% to 73.9% during 2023–25; it earns 33.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 73.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4049848323689155],[2017,0.44524966597678867],[2018,0.3252077007051124],[2019,0.4510085284113645],[2020,0.6651055766107201],[2021,0.3518487772763176],[2022,0.2510019206742872],[2023,0.15821875857336695],[2024,0.15906885401642762],[2025,0.2837768018599845]]; median 0.338528238990715. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 18.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2016: growth capex 2100000; upkeep 37400000; owner earnings 52300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.040152963671128104.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 33700000; owner earnings 111200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 9435347.096865341; upkeep 43664652.90313466; owner earnings 41935347.09686534. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2249974723011326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 4802122.544140466; upkeep 51597877.455859534; owner earnings 59142122.544140466. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08119631723660953.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 31600000; cash acquisitions 1100000; owner earnings 76240000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.014428121720881428.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 15200000; upkeep 42800000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 77620000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1958258180881216.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 807669.0060827509; upkeep 59592330.99391725; owner earnings 21087669.00608275. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0383005350591276.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,31400000],[2017,31400000],[2018,31400000],[2019,31300000],[2020,5700000],[2021,19100000],[2022,31600000],[2023,34200000],[2024,34500000],[2025,34100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MGAM.LSE.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: cash repurchases 18800000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGAM.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.762 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18660806736718472. Price 279.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.010161177295024528 → FY2025 -0.05247419010323959. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 272.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 282.20 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 285.40 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 301.20 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 311.60 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 334.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 298.60 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 283.70 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 299.40 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 300.10 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 311.10 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 314.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 316.80 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 337.30 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 346.60 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 338.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 318.40 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 343.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 342.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 326.60 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 356.80 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 340.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 332.20 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 276.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 274.60 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 263.20 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 266.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 258.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 243.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 279.40 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 247.20 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 278.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 251.40 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 255.60 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 260.40 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 235.60 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 286.80 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 317.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 312.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 278.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 185.10 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 218.50 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 213.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 241.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 217.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 231.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 238.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 250.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 281.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 311.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 292.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 311.50 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 296.50 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 333.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 353.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 385.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 401.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 360.50 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 346.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 359.50 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 358.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 320.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 304.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 282.50 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 320.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 275.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 318.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 265.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 227.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 246.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 302.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 314.50 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 314.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 283.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 306.50 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 290.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 274.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 273.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 263.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 245.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 225.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 255.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 283.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 271.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 264.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 285.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 314.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 341.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 309.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 276.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 241.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 265.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 272.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 274.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 214.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 203.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 196.80 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 212.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 220.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 232.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 211.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 220.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 204.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 202.50 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 218.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 229.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 241.50 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 201.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 218.50 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 230.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 213.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 226.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 241.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 268.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 279.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 214.54 per share, central GBX 261.33 per share, high GBX 299.13 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 192.97 per share, central GBX 243.45 per share, high GBX 282.66 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 178.81 per share, central GBX 204.19 per share, high GBX 234.68 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 251.95 per share, central GBX 315.25 per share, high GBX 365.42 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 230.83 per share, central GBX 256.36 per share, high GBX 290.36 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 241.72 per share, central GBX 269.85 per share, high GBX 307.29 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 293.76 per share, central GBX 357.95 per share, high GBX 412.16 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 274.56 per share, central GBX 307.51 per share, high GBX 351.37 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 113.85 per share, central GBX 126.13 per share, high GBX 141.13 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 111.30 per share, central GBX 121.41 per share, high GBX 134.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31/reports/I4K14LL95N2PHDL7EG85-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Morgan Advanced Materials

MGAM · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 279.50
Buy up to: GBX 130.88
Expected / yr: 5.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 32.2% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 11.4%
Worst year: 8.2%
Latest · 2025: 17.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 33.9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 15.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 33.9%
Worst year: 15.8%
Latest · 2025: 28.4%

Each $1 of profit left $0.53 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.53×
Annual median: 0.45×
Latest · 2025: -0.70×

Per-share value fell from 0.18 to 0.16, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.18
Worst year: GBP -0.08
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.08

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -10.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -4.0%
Worst year: 6.7%
Latest · 2025: -10.1%

Profit record · fail 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 13.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share -0.01 GBP. Three-year average owner earnings per share is not positive.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 272.50 · Value 261.33 · Buy at or below 261.33; 2016-11 · Price GBX 282.20 · Value 261.33 · Buy at or below 261.33; 2016-12 · Price GBX 285.40 · Value 261.33 · Buy at or below 261.33; 2017-01 · Price GBX 301.20 · Value 261.33 · Buy at or below 261.33; 2017-02 · Price GBX 311.60 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-03 · Price GBX 310.00 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-04 · Price GBX 334.00 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-05 · Price GBX 298.60 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-06 · Price GBX 283.70 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-07 · Price GBX 299.40 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-08 · Price GBX 300.10 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-09 · Price GBX 311.10 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-10 · Price GBX 314.00 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-11 · Price GBX 316.80 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2017-12 · Price GBX 337.30 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2018-01 · Price GBX 346.60 · Value 243.45 · Buy at or below 243.45; 2018-02 · Price GBX 338.00 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-03 · Price GBX 318.40 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-04 · Price GBX 343.00 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-05 · Price GBX 342.00 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-06 · Price GBX 326.60 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-07 · Price GBX 356.80 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-08 · Price GBX 340.00 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-09 · Price GBX 332.20 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-10 · Price GBX 276.00 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-11 · Price GBX 274.60 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2018-12 · Price GBX 263.20 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2019-01 · Price GBX 266.80 · Value 204.19 · Buy at or below 204.19; 2019-02 · Price GBX 258.00 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-03 · Price GBX 243.00 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-04 · Price GBX 279.40 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-05 · Price GBX 247.20 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-06 · Price GBX 278.00 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-07 · Price GBX 251.40 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-08 · Price GBX 255.60 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-09 · Price GBX 260.40 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-10 · Price GBX 235.60 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-11 · Price GBX 286.80 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2019-12 · Price GBX 317.00 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2020-01 · Price GBX 312.00 · Value 315.25 · Buy at or below 315.25; 2020-02 · Price GBX 278.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-03 · Price GBX 185.10 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-04 · Price GBX 218.50 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-05 · Price GBX 213.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-06 · Price GBX 241.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-07 · Price GBX 217.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-08 · Price GBX 231.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-09 · Price GBX 238.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-10 · Price GBX 250.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-11 · Price GBX 281.50 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2020-12 · Price GBX 311.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2021-01 · Price GBX 292.00 · Value 256.36 · Buy at or below 256.36; 2021-02 · Price GBX 310.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-03 · Price GBX 311.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-04 · Price GBX 296.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-05 · Price GBX 333.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-06 · Price GBX 353.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-07 · Price GBX 385.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-08 · Price GBX 401.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-09 · Price GBX 360.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-10 · Price GBX 346.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-11 · Price GBX 359.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2021-12 · Price GBX 358.50 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2022-01 · Price GBX 320.00 · Value 269.85 · Buy at or below 269.85; 2022-02 · Price GBX 304.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-03 · Price GBX 310.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-04 · Price GBX 282.50 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-05 · Price GBX 320.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-06 · Price GBX 275.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-07 · Price GBX 318.50 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-08 · Price GBX 265.50 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-09 · Price GBX 227.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-10 · Price GBX 246.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-11 · Price GBX 302.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2022-12 · Price GBX 314.50 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2023-01 · Price GBX 314.00 · Value 357.95 · Buy at or below 357.95; 2023-02 · Price GBX 310.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-03 · Price GBX 283.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-04 · Price GBX 306.50 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-05 · Price GBX 290.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-06 · Price GBX 274.50 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-07 · Price GBX 273.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-08 · Price GBX 263.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-09 · Price GBX 245.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-10 · Price GBX 225.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-11 · Price GBX 255.50 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2023-12 · Price GBX 283.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2024-01 · Price GBX 271.00 · Value 307.51 · Buy at or below 307.51; 2024-02 · Price GBX 264.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-03 · Price GBX 285.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-04 · Price GBX 314.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-05 · Price GBX 309.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-06 · Price GBX 309.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-07 · Price GBX 341.50 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-08 · Price GBX 309.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-09 · Price GBX 276.50 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-10 · Price GBX 241.50 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-11 · Price GBX 265.50 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2024-12 · Price GBX 272.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2025-01 · Price GBX 274.00 · Value 126.13 · Buy at or below 126.13; 2025-02 · Price GBX 214.50 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-03 · Price GBX 203.50 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-04 · Price GBX 196.80 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-05 · Price GBX 212.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-06 · Price GBX 220.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-07 · Price GBX 232.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-08 · Price GBX 211.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-09 · Price GBX 220.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-10 · Price GBX 204.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-11 · Price GBX 202.50 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2025-12 · Price GBX 218.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2026-01 · Price GBX 229.00 · Value 121.41 · Buy at or below 121.41; 2026-02 · Price GBX 241.50 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-03 · Price GBX 201.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-04 · Price GBX 218.50 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-05 · Price GBX 230.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-06 · Price GBX 213.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-07 · Price GBX 226.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-08 · Price GBX 241.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-09 · Price GBX 268.00 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-10 · Price GBX 279.50 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88; 2026-10 · Price GBX 279.50 · Value 130.88 · Buy at or below 130.88

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 120.77 – GBX 144.35
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 130.88
Discount to value	1 − 279.50 / 130.88 = -113.5%
Return / year	About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 6.71/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 47.41/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 997M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP -15M

Owner earnings

Operating margin17.0%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -234M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares281M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·