# MGE Energy (MGEE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGEE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:11.415Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $71.28 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $37.60 per share, central $45.18 per share, high $52.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value $45.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:11.415Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: 0.20×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.23×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.22×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 30.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.2%

- FY2017: 9.6%

- FY2018: 7.7%

- FY2019: 7.1%

- FY2020: 6.5%

- FY2021: 6.8%

- FY2022: 6.0%

- FY2023: 6.0%

- FY2024: 6.7%

- FY2025: 6.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.55×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $323M

- Net income, five-year total: $591M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.03×

- FY2024: -0.06×

- FY2025: 0.87×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.2% vs 6.6%

- Per-share earnings: 2.18 to 3.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: $602M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $459M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.4%

- Per-share value change: $1.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.33

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $226M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.18

- FY2017: $2.82

- FY2018: $2.43

- FY2019: $2.51

- FY2020: $2.60

- FY2021: $2.92

- FY2022: $3.07

- FY2023: $3.25

- FY2024: $3.33

- FY2025: $3.72

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.94×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.0%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: -3.6%

- FY2021: -1.3%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 32% since Nov 2024 · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:09.369Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $563M 

- FY2018: $560M 

- FY2019: $569M 

- FY2020: $539M 

- FY2021: $607M 

- FY2022: $715M 

- FY2023: $690M 

- FY2024: $677M 

- FY2025: $744M 

- FY2026: $769M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 97.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 35.4% 

- FY2017: 35.7% 

- FY2018: 33.9% 

- FY2019: 35.6% 

- FY2020: 37.9% 

- FY2021: 35.2% 

- FY2022: 34.1% 

- FY2023: 39.0% 

- FY2024: 41.2% 

- FY2025: 97.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are USD 743.7 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 743654000; grossProfit 723650000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGEE.US: MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other segments. The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; purchases and distributes natural gas; owns and leases electric generating capacity; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission power services. It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources and provides solar and wind generation, and battery storage services. As of December 31, 2025, the company owned and operated 811 miles of overhead electric distribution lines; 1,386 miles of underground electric distribution cables; 47 substations with an installed capacity of 1.2 million kVA; and gas facilities, including 3,117 miles of distribution mains, as well as supplied electric service to approximately 170,000 customers. MGE Energy, Inc. has a strategic partnership with Realta Fusion Inc. and Madison Gas and Electric Company. MGE Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39% to 97.3% during 2023–25; it earns 6.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 97.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08209598986656529],[2017,0.09570528658524347],[2018,0.07705366900867605],[2019,0.0708021369951985],[2020,0.06471114180646928],[2021,0.06834410817729995],[2022,0.06002506715547774],[2023,0.0595403903884015],[2024,0.06734833710619968],[2025,0.0662915090063145]]; median 0.06784622264174982. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 6.1% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 83659000; owner earnings 36547000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 39838215.97545549; upkeep 68292784.0245445; owner earnings 82390215.9754555. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.48353090841907154.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 22761885.20763868; upkeep 141274114.79236132; owner earnings 17161885.20763868. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3263044783394462.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 76186000; upkeep 76983000; owner earnings 105761000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7203600571098987.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 89481000; upkeep 85549000; owner earnings 110952000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.80648388492321.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 210627795.60240653; upkeep 132592204.39759347; owner earnings 117620795.60240653. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7907360218374264.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Incremental return on capital 0.06123270480534511, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,41775000],[2017,43682000],[2018,45762000],[2019,47842000],[2020,51729000],[2021,54788000],[2022,57500000],[2023,60393000],[2024,63596000],[2025,67587000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGEE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.329 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1012584016501912. Price 71.28; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2558555440175379 → FY2025 3.2162313199640846. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $58.45 per share

- 2016-11: $59.20 per share

- 2016-12: $65.30 per share

- 2017-01: $63.65 per share

- 2017-02: $63.95 per share

- 2017-03: $65.00 per share

- 2017-04: $64.30 per share

- 2017-05: $65.10 per share

- 2017-06: $64.35 per share

- 2017-07: $66.55 per share

- 2017-08: $63.60 per share

- 2017-09: $64.60 per share

- 2017-10: $66.05 per share

- 2017-11: $66.00 per share

- 2017-12: $63.10 per share

- 2018-01: $59.80 per share

- 2018-02: $52.50 per share

- 2018-03: $56.10 per share

- 2018-04: $58.05 per share

- 2018-05: $59.65 per share

- 2018-06: $63.05 per share

- 2018-07: $64.00 per share

- 2018-08: $65.45 per share

- 2018-09: $63.85 per share

- 2018-10: $62.48 per share

- 2018-11: $66.09 per share

- 2018-12: $59.96 per share

- 2019-01: $64.31 per share

- 2019-02: $63.92 per share

- 2019-03: $67.97 per share

- 2019-04: $67.79 per share

- 2019-05: $66.24 per share

- 2019-06: $73.08 per share

- 2019-07: $74.15 per share

- 2019-08: $75.85 per share

- 2019-09: $79.87 per share

- 2019-10: $77.04 per share

- 2019-11: $77.52 per share

- 2019-12: $78.82 per share

- 2020-01: $79.93 per share

- 2020-02: $71.34 per share

- 2020-03: $65.47 per share

- 2020-04: $64.66 per share

- 2020-05: $67.89 per share

- 2020-06: $64.51 per share

- 2020-07: $66.33 per share

- 2020-08: $64.99 per share

- 2020-09: $62.66 per share

- 2020-10: $65.02 per share

- 2020-11: $68.67 per share

- 2020-12: $70.03 per share

- 2021-01: $63.68 per share

- 2021-02: $63.70 per share

- 2021-03: $71.39 per share

- 2021-04: $74.81 per share

- 2021-05: $75.02 per share

- 2021-06: $74.44 per share

- 2021-07: $78.12 per share

- 2021-08: $80.54 per share

- 2021-09: $73.50 per share

- 2021-10: $75.89 per share

- 2021-11: $72.59 per share

- 2021-12: $82.25 per share

- 2022-01: $77.43 per share

- 2022-02: $72.02 per share

- 2022-03: $79.79 per share

- 2022-04: $77.87 per share

- 2022-05: $79.37 per share

- 2022-06: $77.83 per share

- 2022-07: $81.38 per share

- 2022-08: $77.02 per share

- 2022-09: $65.63 per share

- 2022-10: $68.09 per share

- 2022-11: $72.01 per share

- 2022-12: $70.40 per share

- 2023-01: $73.11 per share

- 2023-02: $70.78 per share

- 2023-03: $77.67 per share

- 2023-04: $76.61 per share

- 2023-05: $71.76 per share

- 2023-06: $79.11 per share

- 2023-07: $80.24 per share

- 2023-08: $72.43 per share

- 2023-09: $68.51 per share

- 2023-10: $71.63 per share

- 2023-11: $73.75 per share

- 2023-12: $72.31 per share

- 2024-01: $64.49 per share

- 2024-02: $63.19 per share

- 2024-03: $78.72 per share

- 2024-04: $78.32 per share

- 2024-05: $80.13 per share

- 2024-06: $74.72 per share

- 2024-07: $87.84 per share

- 2024-08: $86.71 per share

- 2024-09: $91.45 per share

- 2024-10: $90.49 per share

- 2024-11: $104.28 per share

- 2024-12: $93.96 per share

- 2025-01: $89.85 per share

- 2025-02: $91.78 per share

- 2025-03: $92.96 per share

- 2025-04: $90.42 per share

- 2025-05: $90.32 per share

- 2025-06: $88.44 per share

- 2025-07: $84.94 per share

- 2025-08: $85.15 per share

- 2025-09: $84.18 per share

- 2025-10: $82.87 per share

- 2025-11: $82.82 per share

- 2025-12: $78.42 per share

- 2026-01: $79.88 per share

- 2026-02: $82.02 per share

- 2026-03: $77.29 per share

- 2026-04: $80.22 per share

- 2026-05: $75.50 per share

- 2026-06: $81.54 per share

- 2026-07: $79.53 per share

- 2026-08: $77.69 per share

- 2026-09: $69.45 per share

- 2026-10: $71.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $15.71 per share, central $17.54 per share, high $19.97 per share

- FY2017: low $25.29 per share, central $28.40 per share, high $32.53 per share

- FY2018: low $15.70 per share, central $17.58 per share, high $20.08 per share

- FY2019: low $12.53 per share, central $14.40 per share, high $16.68 per share

- FY2020: low $5.94 per share, central $6.63 per share, high $7.54 per share

- FY2021: low $5.75 per share, central $6.61 per share, high $7.66 per share

- FY2022: low $6.88 per share, central $8.29 per share, high $9.65 per share

- FY2023: low $6.46 per share, central $7.56 per share, high $8.80 per share

- FY2025: low $36.35 per share, central $43.68 per share, high $50.88 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1161728/000119312526067036/mgee-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.