# MGM Resorts International (MGM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T09:06:52.784Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $29.48 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $12.82 per share, central $15.45 per share, high $16.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value $15.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T09:06:52.784Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.8% at the stated quote. About 5.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.86×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.22×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: -0.12×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.8%

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: 16.3%

- FY2020: -2.5%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 6.2%

- FY2024: 5.3%

- FY2025: 3.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.65×

- FY2022: 2.80×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 0.56×

### management: fail

- $1 retained earnings test: 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.0% vs 5.3%

- market cap gain below cumulative retained earnings

- Market cap gain: -$6.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -6.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -10.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.92

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.41

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 9.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.3%

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 12.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.5%

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: 0.7%

- FY2020: 1.3%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -5.6%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 40% since Jul 2023 · "Las Vegas Adjusted EBITDAR Decline: $72 million year-over-year, primarily due to MGM Grand." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +1.7%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: MGM Resorts surges on profit beat, $2 billion buyback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mgm-resorts-surges-profit-beat-213931979.html))

- 2025-06-16: MGM Stock Is Rising. Its Online Betting Venture Raised Guidance. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/31902e65-4c99-3e5b-9b5c-fc9230c92fe8/mgm-stock-is-rising.-its.html))

- 2025-07-03: MGM Resorts (MGM) Soars 7.27% as Macau Gaming Revenues Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mgm-resorts-mgm-soars-7-004905971.html))

- 2025-10-29: MGM Resorts Swings to Loss on Charges Tied to N.Y. Casino ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2835bddf-9728-3f67-a415-ac2378d90ca2/mgm-resorts-swings-to-loss-on.html))

- 2026-02-04: MGM Stock Jumps on Sports Betting Results. Can It Fend Off Prediction Markets? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bbe958ad-4460-35a9-aeac-7c699bf116a3/mgm-stock-jumps-on-sports.html))

- 2026-06-01: MGM Stock Soars After Barry Diller's Company Makes $18 Billion Bid ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/808631ba-ee61-3653-91cd-1fcf748b556e/mgm-stock-soars-after-barry.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $9.5B 

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $12B 

- FY2019: $13B 

- FY2020: $5.2B 

- FY2021: $9.7B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $16B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 44.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2022: 49.3% 

- FY2023: 47.1% 

- FY2024: 45.5% 

- FY2025: 44.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 17.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 17537683000; grossProfit 7790131000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); MGM.US: MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms. Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.4% to 47.1% during 2023–25; it earns 6.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 44.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1280894701561462],[2017,0.09968358455237887],[2018,0.07397087336643421],[2019,0.16279279903160251],[2020,-0.02523676664700028],[2021,0.08375005046719078],[2022,0.033638779193563964],[2023,0.06194202288003418],[2024,0.052611356087759645],[2025,0.03743033840683092]]; median 0.06795644812323419. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 44.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 9.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 425997959.1592109; upkeep 1836475040.840789; owner earnings 59004959.15921092. Growth capex / owner earnings = 7.219697551349137.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 870602000; upkeep 993480000; owner earnings 1889558000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4607437294859433.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 308799000; upkeep 1178044000; owner earnings 396595000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7786255499943268.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 739006000; owner earnings 2525951000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 490697000; owner earnings 1849100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 765067000; owner earnings 4118780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 117685000; upkeep 814128000; owner earnings 1068573000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11013285943028693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 319492000; upkeep 831097000; owner earnings 666334000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.479477259152317.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 51133000; upkeep 1017794000; owner earnings 115779000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4416431304467995.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Incremental return on capital 0.09339142863071401, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,4386407000],[2017,252014000],[2018,260592000],[2019,271288000],[2020,77606000],[2021,4789000],[2022,4048000],[2023,957000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 1228272000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 27.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); MGM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 27.876 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Our substantial indebtedness and significant financial commitments" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Our substantial indebtedness and significant financial commitments

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.26750866311561994. Price 30.47; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.17 per share

- 2016-11: $28.71 per share

- 2016-12: $28.83 per share

- 2017-01: $28.80 per share

- 2017-02: $26.29 per share

- 2017-03: $27.40 per share

- 2017-04: $30.71 per share

- 2017-05: $31.72 per share

- 2017-06: $31.29 per share

- 2017-07: $32.93 per share

- 2017-08: $32.96 per share

- 2017-09: $32.59 per share

- 2017-10: $31.35 per share

- 2017-11: $34.12 per share

- 2017-12: $33.39 per share

- 2018-01: $36.45 per share

- 2018-02: $34.23 per share

- 2018-03: $35.02 per share

- 2018-04: $31.42 per share

- 2018-05: $31.45 per share

- 2018-06: $29.03 per share

- 2018-07: $31.37 per share

- 2018-08: $28.99 per share

- 2018-09: $27.91 per share

- 2018-10: $26.68 per share

- 2018-11: $26.96 per share

- 2018-12: $24.26 per share

- 2019-01: $29.44 per share

- 2019-02: $26.75 per share

- 2019-03: $25.66 per share

- 2019-04: $26.63 per share

- 2019-05: $24.82 per share

- 2019-06: $28.57 per share

- 2019-07: $30.02 per share

- 2019-08: $28.06 per share

- 2019-09: $27.72 per share

- 2019-10: $28.50 per share

- 2019-11: $31.95 per share

- 2019-12: $33.27 per share

- 2020-01: $31.06 per share

- 2020-02: $24.56 per share

- 2020-03: $11.80 per share

- 2020-04: $16.83 per share

- 2020-05: $17.18 per share

- 2020-06: $16.80 per share

- 2020-07: $16.09 per share

- 2020-08: $22.50 per share

- 2020-09: $21.75 per share

- 2020-10: $20.57 per share

- 2020-11: $28.25 per share

- 2020-12: $31.51 per share

- 2021-01: $28.56 per share

- 2021-02: $37.79 per share

- 2021-03: $37.99 per share

- 2021-04: $40.72 per share

- 2021-05: $42.87 per share

- 2021-06: $42.65 per share

- 2021-07: $37.53 per share

- 2021-08: $42.62 per share

- 2021-09: $43.15 per share

- 2021-10: $47.16 per share

- 2021-11: $39.58 per share

- 2021-12: $44.88 per share

- 2022-01: $42.72 per share

- 2022-02: $44.29 per share

- 2022-03: $41.94 per share

- 2022-04: $41.04 per share

- 2022-05: $34.97 per share

- 2022-06: $28.95 per share

- 2022-07: $32.73 per share

- 2022-08: $32.64 per share

- 2022-09: $29.72 per share

- 2022-10: $35.57 per share

- 2022-11: $36.86 per share

- 2022-12: $33.53 per share

- 2023-01: $41.41 per share

- 2023-02: $43.01 per share

- 2023-03: $44.42 per share

- 2023-04: $44.92 per share

- 2023-05: $39.29 per share

- 2023-06: $43.92 per share

- 2023-07: $50.77 per share

- 2023-08: $43.98 per share

- 2023-09: $36.76 per share

- 2023-10: $34.92 per share

- 2023-11: $39.44 per share

- 2023-12: $44.68 per share

- 2024-01: $43.37 per share

- 2024-02: $43.28 per share

- 2024-03: $47.21 per share

- 2024-04: $39.44 per share

- 2024-05: $40.17 per share

- 2024-06: $44.44 per share

- 2024-07: $42.97 per share

- 2024-08: $37.59 per share

- 2024-09: $39.09 per share

- 2024-10: $36.87 per share

- 2024-11: $38.34 per share

- 2024-12: $34.65 per share

- 2025-01: $34.48 per share

- 2025-02: $34.76 per share

- 2025-03: $29.64 per share

- 2025-04: $31.46 per share

- 2025-05: $31.65 per share

- 2025-06: $34.39 per share

- 2025-07: $36.45 per share

- 2025-08: $39.69 per share

- 2025-09: $34.66 per share

- 2025-10: $32.03 per share

- 2025-11: $35.29 per share

- 2025-12: $36.49 per share

- 2026-01: $33.54 per share

- 2026-02: $36.86 per share

- 2026-03: $37.01 per share

- 2026-04: $38.94 per share

- 2026-05: $43.67 per share

- 2026-06: $47.81 per share

- 2026-07: $44.57 per share

- 2026-08: $41.36 per share

- 2026-09: $31.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $15.53 per share, central $16.39 per share, high $17.55 per share

- FY2022: low $38.02 per share, central $45.01 per share, high $50.30 per share

- FY2023: low $43.17 per share, central $56.65 per share, high $65.17 per share

- FY2024: low $35.87 per share, central $48.39 per share, high $55.67 per share

- FY2025: low $11.83 per share, central $14.26 per share, high $15.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789570/000078957026000018/mgm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.