# Magnite (MGNI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGNI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:11.970Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $24.48 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $6.32 per share, central $6.89 per share, high $7.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $6.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:11.970Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.4% at the stated quote. About 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 1.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.09×

- FY2017: -1.01×

- FY2018: -0.51×

- FY2019: -0.18×

- FY2020: -0.24×

- FY2021: -0.17×

- FY2022: -0.20×

- FY2023: -0.25×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -37.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -349.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 62.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -44.9%

- FY2017: -349.7%

- FY2018: -167.3%

- FY2019: -57.1%

- FY2020: -29.0%

- FY2021: -13.1%

- FY2022: -29.6%

- FY2023: -3139.9%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $389M

- Net income, five-year total: -$122M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -18.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -36.5%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $118M

- FY2022: $41M

- FY2023: $44M

- FY2024: $48M

- FY2025: $137M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -167.3% vs 3.2%

- Per-share earnings: -0.39 to 0.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 13.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 9.7%

- Market cap gain: $2.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$418M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 13.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 9.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.30

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $795M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$436M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -167.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.39

- FY2017: -$3.17

- FY2018: -$1.23

- FY2019: -$0.48

- FY2020: -$0.55

- FY2021: $0.00

- FY2022: -$0.98

- FY2023: -$1.17

- FY2024: $0.16

- FY2025: $0.94

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 32.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.63×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.0%

- FY2017: -46.0%

- FY2018: -10.9%

- FY2019: -14.5%

- FY2020: -4.4%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -11.9%

- FY2023: -13.9%

- FY2024: -7.4%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 20.9% a year for ten years · sales +6.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:09.478Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 20.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-12: MGNI Q2 Deep Dive: CTV Strength and Margin Gains Offset by Revenue Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mgni-q2-deep-dive-ctv-071627093.html))

- 2026-06-17: Magnite (MGNI) Climbs 10.7% as Firm Unveils Agentic Advertising Product ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/magnite-mgni-climbs-10-7-020318366.html))

- 2026-08-30: Magnite (MGNI) Lifted Guidance, Is The Stock Fully Priced? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/magnite-mgni-lifted-guidance-stock-081423185.html))

- 2026-09-29: Magnite's Growth Outlook Improves 'Considerably' After Google Court Ruling, BofA Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/magnite-apos-growth-outlook-improves-152402700.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $278M 

- FY2017: $156M 

- FY2018: $125M 

- FY2019: $156M 

- FY2020: $222M 

- FY2021: $468M 

- FY2022: $577M 

- FY2023: $620M 

- FY2024: $668M 

- FY2025: $714M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 62.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 73.7% 

- FY2017: 63.5% 

- FY2018: 51.9% 

- FY2019: 63.3% 

- FY2020: 64.9% 

- FY2021: 56.9% 

- FY2022: 46.8% 

- FY2023: 33.9% 

- FY2024: 61.3% 

- FY2025: 62.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in advertising agencies; annual sales are USD 714 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 713953000; grossProfit 447334000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGNI.US: Magnite, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an independent omni-channel sell-side advertising platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform offers applications and services for sellers of digital advertising inventory, or publishers that own and operate CTV channels, applications, websites, and other digital media properties to manage and monetize their inventory; and for buyers, including advertisers, agencies, agency trading desks, and demand side platforms to buy digital advertising inventory, as well as an independent marketplace that brings buyers and sellers together. It markets its solutions through sales teams that operate from various locations. Magnite, Inc. was formerly known as The Rubicon Project, Inc. and changed name to Magnite, Inc. in July 2020. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.9% to 62.7% during 2023–25; it lost 37.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 62.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.4486969316756017],[2017,-3.496716199069505],[2018,-1.672947364916603],[2019,-0.5705681966955566],[2020,-0.28968215654854873],[2021,-0.1307754193594495],[2022,-0.29631929548001745],[2023,-31.399258974358975],[2024,0.03191911793307526],[2025,8.541237113402062]]; median -0.37250811357780955. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 12.9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 2 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 29128000; cash acquisitions 661869000; owner earnings 117823000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 5.617485550359437.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 44397000; cash acquisitions 20755000; owner earnings 41332000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5021532952675892.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 37383000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 44253000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 32810000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 48486000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 9598023.757121138; upkeep 60936976.24287886; cash acquisitions 8100000; owner earnings 137350023.75712115. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12885344518335806.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,13139000],[2022,0],[2023,3513000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 46282000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGNI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.208 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 20.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 29.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2905984832201881. Price 24.48; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.06731093381278795 → FY2025 0.8932172969832942. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $7.66 per share

- 2016-11: $7.55 per share

- 2016-12: $7.42 per share

- 2017-01: $8.47 per share

- 2017-02: $8.74 per share

- 2017-03: $5.89 per share

- 2017-04: $5.71 per share

- 2017-05: $4.98 per share

- 2017-06: $5.14 per share

- 2017-07: $4.70 per share

- 2017-08: $3.76 per share

- 2017-09: $3.89 per share

- 2017-10: $3.56 per share

- 2017-11: $1.80 per share

- 2017-12: $1.87 per share

- 2018-01: $1.92 per share

- 2018-02: $1.61 per share

- 2018-03: $1.80 per share

- 2018-04: $2.18 per share

- 2018-05: $2.35 per share

- 2018-06: $2.85 per share

- 2018-07: $2.88 per share

- 2018-08: $3.98 per share

- 2018-09: $3.60 per share

- 2018-10: $3.41 per share

- 2018-11: $4.45 per share

- 2018-12: $3.73 per share

- 2019-01: $4.46 per share

- 2019-02: $5.87 per share

- 2019-03: $6.08 per share

- 2019-04: $6.39 per share

- 2019-05: $5.50 per share

- 2019-06: $6.36 per share

- 2019-07: $7.61 per share

- 2019-08: $10.23 per share

- 2019-09: $8.71 per share

- 2019-10: $8.50 per share

- 2019-11: $8.08 per share

- 2019-12: $8.16 per share

- 2020-01: $9.36 per share

- 2020-02: $11.35 per share

- 2020-03: $5.55 per share

- 2020-04: $7.17 per share

- 2020-05: $6.27 per share

- 2020-06: $6.67 per share

- 2020-07: $6.01 per share

- 2020-08: $7.35 per share

- 2020-09: $6.95 per share

- 2020-10: $9.03 per share

- 2020-11: $19.00 per share

- 2020-12: $30.71 per share

- 2021-01: $34.64 per share

- 2021-02: $48.87 per share

- 2021-03: $41.61 per share

- 2021-04: $40.05 per share

- 2021-05: $29.70 per share

- 2021-06: $33.84 per share

- 2021-07: $30.30 per share

- 2021-08: $29.02 per share

- 2021-09: $28.00 per share

- 2021-10: $27.03 per share

- 2021-11: $17.63 per share

- 2021-12: $17.50 per share

- 2022-01: $13.57 per share

- 2022-02: $14.58 per share

- 2022-03: $13.21 per share

- 2022-04: $9.65 per share

- 2022-05: $10.99 per share

- 2022-06: $8.88 per share

- 2022-07: $7.64 per share

- 2022-08: $7.53 per share

- 2022-09: $6.57 per share

- 2022-10: $7.29 per share

- 2022-11: $11.11 per share

- 2022-12: $10.59 per share

- 2023-01: $12.08 per share

- 2023-02: $11.13 per share

- 2023-03: $9.26 per share

- 2023-04: $9.40 per share

- 2023-05: $11.88 per share

- 2023-06: $13.65 per share

- 2023-07: $15.13 per share

- 2023-08: $8.25 per share

- 2023-09: $7.54 per share

- 2023-10: $6.64 per share

- 2023-11: $8.08 per share

- 2023-12: $9.34 per share

- 2024-01: $8.85 per share

- 2024-02: $12.02 per share

- 2024-03: $10.75 per share

- 2024-04: $8.83 per share

- 2024-05: $12.34 per share

- 2024-06: $13.29 per share

- 2024-07: $14.54 per share

- 2024-08: $13.79 per share

- 2024-09: $13.85 per share

- 2024-10: $12.48 per share

- 2024-11: $16.79 per share

- 2024-12: $15.92 per share

- 2025-01: $17.20 per share

- 2025-02: $15.77 per share

- 2025-03: $11.41 per share

- 2025-04: $11.89 per share

- 2025-05: $16.36 per share

- 2025-06: $24.12 per share

- 2025-07: $23.01 per share

- 2025-08: $25.95 per share

- 2025-09: $21.78 per share

- 2025-10: $17.88 per share

- 2025-11: $14.69 per share

- 2025-12: $16.23 per share

- 2026-01: $14.47 per share

- 2026-02: $13.62 per share

- 2026-03: $11.88 per share

- 2026-04: $12.82 per share

- 2026-05: $14.33 per share

- 2026-06: $18.98 per share

- 2026-07: $19.30 per share

- 2026-08: $23.49 per share

- 2026-09: $25.26 per share

- 2026-10: $24.48 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $5.84 per share, central $6.33 per share, high $6.98 per share

- FY2024: low $6.78 per share, central $7.29 per share, high $7.96 per share

- FY2025: low $7.19 per share, central $7.70 per share, high $8.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1595974/000159597426000007/mgni-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.