# Morgan Sindall Group (MGNS.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGNS.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:02.481Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,912.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 5,086.06 per share, central GBX 6,565.89 per share, high GBX 7,518.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 6,565.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:02.481Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.1% at the stated quote. About 16.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 31.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.3%

- FY2017: 15.8%

- FY2018: 17.3%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 9.1%

- FY2021: 15.8%

- FY2022: 10.0%

- FY2023: 16.1%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 598M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 583M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 34.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.8% vs 225.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.80 to 2.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 438M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP 1.89

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.80

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 2.69

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.02

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 8.0M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 856M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.80

- FY2017: GBP 1.11

- FY2018: GBP 1.37

- FY2019: GBP 1.54

- FY2020: GBP 0.98

- FY2021: GBP 2.03

- FY2022: GBP 1.31

- FY2023: GBP 2.50

- FY2024: GBP 2.69

- FY2025: GBP 3.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.94×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -13.0%

- FY2017: 1.5%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: 1.6%

- FY2020: -8.9%

- FY2021: -0.7%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: -1.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · "Morgan Sindall revises 2025 outlook as Fit Out performance lifts group expectations" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +10.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.126Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-06: Morgan Sindall revises 2025 outlook as Fit Out performance lifts group expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-sindall-revises-2025-outlook-083351646.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2017: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.1B 

- FY2020: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.6B 

- FY2023: GBP 4.1B 

- FY2024: GBP 4.5B 

- FY2025: GBP 5.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 12.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: 9.5% 

- FY2017: 9.8% 

- FY2018: 10.6% 

- FY2019: 10.8% 

- FY2020: 10.4% 

- FY2021: 11.9% 

- FY2022: 10.3% 

- FY2023: 10.8% 

- FY2024: 11.7% 

- FY2025: 12.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are GBP 5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 5018600000; grossProfit 612000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGNS.LSE: Morgan Sindall Group plc operates as a construction and regeneration company in the United Kingdom. The company operates through six segments: Partnership Housing, Mixed Use Partnerships, Fit Out, Construction, Infrastructure, and Property Services. The Partnership Housing segment focuses on working in partnerships with local authorities and housing associations, which includes mixed-tenure developments; building and developing homes for open market sale and for social/affordable rent; design and build house contracting; and planned maintenance and refurbishment. The Mixed Use Partnerships segment transforms urban landscape through partnership working and the development of multi-phase sites and mixed-use placemaking. The Fit Out segment offers fit out and refurbishment in commercial, central and local government offices, and further education, as well as provides office interior design and build services direct to occupiers. The Construction segment focuses on education, healthcare, commercial, industrial, leisure, and retail markets. The Property Services segment provides response and planned maintenance services for social housing and the wider public sector. The Infrastructure segment provides services to energy, nuclear, rail, highways, water, and defence markets, including BakerHicks design activities from the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The company was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10.8% to 12.2% during 2023–25; it earns 16% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13324594491779837],[2017,0.1575977120897529],[2018,0.17347599223313384],[2019,1.5915347438829122],[2020,0.09063635564412144],[2021,0.1579245765121583],[2022,0.10003467516034473],[2023,0.16140467917535326],[2024,32.66189032791403],[2025,2.252297018893839]]; median 0.1596646278437558. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 10% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.119148406374502],[2022,0.10267980731963901],[2023,0.10848289093425942]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 40.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 5800000; owner earnings 37900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 6300000; owner earnings 52900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 10800000; owner earnings 75500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15300000; owner earnings 67060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 5800000; owner earnings 54500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 8000000; owner earnings 101340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 11800000; owner earnings 62620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 14300000; owner earnings 120340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 18200000; owner earnings 133760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 16000000; owner earnings 180380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,13200000],[2017,16800000],[2018,21500000],[2019,24800000],[2020,9600000],[2021,32300000],[2022,43500000],[2023,48100000],[2024,56100000],[2025,65800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 40700000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 10.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MGNS.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 10.371 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

CL2 laboratories are designed for the safe handling of medium-risk biological agents.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); Operating review continued Infrastructure Our strategy in action State-of-the-art research facility designed to be fit for the future BakerHicks worked alongside sister company Morgan Lovell to deliver 100,000 sq ft of cutting-edge Containment Level 2 (CL2) laboratory space for the 28-acre Riverlabs life science campus in Ware, Hertfordshire. CL2 laboratories are designed for the safe handling of medium-risk biological agents. The new facility is split into three 33,000 sq ft specialised science and research spaces, and has transformed three floors of a former GSK building into a flexible, future-proofed environment designed to be easily reconfigured to CL3 as required by tenants.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.052669444025708334. Price 3912; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.22323462414578588 → FY2025 3.6373535520558167. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 718.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 730.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 745.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 822.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 993.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 977.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,060.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,240.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,240.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,370.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,257.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,428.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,444.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,372.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,428.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,262.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,234.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,170.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,252.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,460.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,438.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,410.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,468.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,316.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,186.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,228.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,054.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,174.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,336.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,254.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,312.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,284.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,238.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,124.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,192.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,218.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,280.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,430.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,620.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,832.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,754.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,200.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,284.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,220.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,232.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,044.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,268.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,140.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,104.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,406.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,532.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,480.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,650.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,766.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,300.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,235.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,155.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,340.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,570.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,385.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,275.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,375.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,520.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,120.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,320.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,415.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,175.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,080.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,822.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,025.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,726.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,478.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,540.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,618.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,530.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,642.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,796.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,690.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,694.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,820.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,830.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,908.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,974.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,055.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,880.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,035.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 2,215.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 2,265.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 2,345.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,320.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,265.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,520.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,535.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,860.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 2,990.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,080.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 3,745.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 3,805.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,900.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 3,685.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,330.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,300.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 3,535.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 3,875.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 4,575.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 4,590.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 4,175.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 4,440.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 4,650.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 4,750.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 4,650.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 4,930.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 4,950.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 4,135.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 4,684.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 4,542.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 4,916.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 4,430.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 4,400.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 4,332.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,912.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 944.42 per share, central GBX 1,021.27 per share, high GBX 1,123.57 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 940.86 per share, central GBX 1,028.40 per share, high GBX 1,138.40 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,310.71 per share, central GBX 1,446.76 per share, high GBX 1,627.87 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,659.10 per share, central GBX 1,848.71 per share, high GBX 2,101.13 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 2,132.85 per share, central GBX 2,374.23 per share, high GBX 2,641.80 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 2,498.89 per share, central GBX 2,813.43 per share, high GBX 3,137.44 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 2,831.66 per share, central GBX 3,384.52 per share, high GBX 3,823.18 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 3,452.47 per share, central GBX 4,338.81 per share, high GBX 4,916.84 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 4,429.76 per share, central GBX 5,674.37 per share, high GBX 6,490.22 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 4,862.12 per share, central GBX 6,276.80 per share, high GBX 7,187.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:45:42.852Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008339ULDGZRB345/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31/reports/2138008339ULDGZRB345-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.