# MGP Ingredients (MGPI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MGPI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:12.317Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $15.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $28.71 per share, central $32.62 per share, high $37.82 per share. Buy at or below the central value $32.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:12.317Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.5% at the stated quote. About 18.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 4.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: -0.18×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.54×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -8.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 18.0%

- FY2018: 16.7%

- FY2019: 14.6%

- FY2020: 14.7%

- FY2021: 14.8%

- FY2022: 16.1%

- FY2023: 13.8%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: -8.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: -22.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$182M

- Net income, five-year total: -$98M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -42.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 6.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 45.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 80.1%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: $109M

- FY2023: $93M

- FY2024: -$15M

- FY2025: -$129M

- LTM to Jun 2026: -$240M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.7% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.87 to 1.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquisition spending exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.8%

- Market cap gain: -$315M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $303M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -2.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.87

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.57

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.08

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $257M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $425M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.87

- FY2017: $2.49

- FY2018: $2.21

- FY2019: $2.28

- FY2020: $2.38

- FY2021: $4.41

- FY2022: $4.96

- FY2023: $4.85

- FY2024: $1.57

- FY2025: -$5.05

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -18.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.50×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.1%

- FY2017: 3.5%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 5.9%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: 0.3%

- FY2022: 1.8%

- FY2023: 1.7%

- FY2024: -4.8%

- FY2025: -18.6%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 88% since Nov 2022 · sales -6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:09.544Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -6.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $347M 

- FY2018: $376M 

- FY2019: $363M 

- FY2020: $396M 

- FY2021: $627M 

- FY2022: $782M 

- FY2023: $837M 

- FY2024: $704M 

- FY2025: $536M 

- FY2026: $500M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 35.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 21.9% 

- FY2018: 22.2% 

- FY2019: 21.1% 

- FY2020: 25.0% 

- FY2021: 31.7% 

- FY2022: 32.4% 

- FY2023: 36.4% 

- FY2024: 40.7% 

- FY2025: 37.2% 

- FY2026: 35.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages wineries & distilleries; annual sales are USD 536.4 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 536375000; grossProfit 199409000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-04); MGPI.US: MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes corn and other grains, including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as dried distillers' grain; and offers food-grade alcohol for beverage applications, that include bourbon, rye, and other whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin. This segment also offers warehouse services, including barrel put away, barrel storage, and barrel retrieval services; and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides Tequila under the premium plus, ultra-premium, super premium, premium price tiers under the Penelope Bourbon, Yellowstone Bourbon, Rebel Bourbon, Remus Bourbon, Blood Oath Bourbon, Ezra Brooks Bourbon, Minor Case Straight Rye Whiskey, Rossville Union Straight Rye Whiskey, The Quiet Man Irish Whiskey, Green Hat Gin, Everclear grain alcohol, El Mayor Tequila, and Dos Primos names; mid branded spirits under the Brady's Irish Cream, Saint Brendan's Irish Cream Liqueur, Pearl Vodka, Lord Calvert Canadian Whisky, and Exotico Tequila names; and value branded spirits under the Arrow Cordials, Canada House Canadian Whisky, Lady Bligh Rum, and Juarez Tequila names, as well as private label products. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications, such as Fibersym, a resistant wheat starch; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea and soy proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. It sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Atchison, Kansas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.4% to 40.7% during 2023–25; it earns 14.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.18026165397138966],[2018,0.16711067596595197],[2019,0.14570553557135954],[2020,0.14692046724846125],[2021,0.14803786671318422],[2022,0.16107579463985125],[2023,0.1382537825781448],[2024,0.05370783198740594],[2025,-0.0878412189159968],[2026,-0.22233682693774093]]; median 0.14631300140991038. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 17922000; cash acquisitions 1551000; owner earnings 24515000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06326738731388945.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 7379838.816552594; upkeep 13675161.183447406; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 39455838.816552594. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18704047456359207.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 7837283.655316699; upkeep 23208716.3446833; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 25437283.6553167. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3081022235516335.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 16730000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 33635000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 6740000; upkeep 12961000; cash acquisitions 2750000; owner earnings 40345000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.23522121700334614.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 28297000; upkeep 19092000; cash acquisitions 149005000; owner earnings 91307000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.9418226422946763.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 23868000; upkeep 21455000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 109462000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2180482724598491.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 18584096.01686827; upkeep 36682903.98313173; cash acquisitions 103712000; owner earnings 92905096.01686826. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.3163550898721814.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,2066000],[2017,17380000],[2018,5500000],[2019,6856000],[2020,8188000],[2021,10017000],[2022,10646000],[2023,10675000],[2024,10630000],[2025,10325000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1035000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 32.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-04); MGPI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 32.53 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-04.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1351351152035573. Price 15.4; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6578707211031278 → FY2025 -6.048341325092811. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $35.21 per share

- 2016-11: $47.30 per share

- 2016-12: $49.98 per share

- 2017-01: $42.39 per share

- 2017-02: $44.23 per share

- 2017-03: $54.23 per share

- 2017-04: $52.36 per share

- 2017-05: $51.21 per share

- 2017-06: $51.17 per share

- 2017-07: $58.96 per share

- 2017-08: $56.23 per share

- 2017-09: $60.63 per share

- 2017-10: $67.96 per share

- 2017-11: $74.35 per share

- 2017-12: $76.88 per share

- 2018-01: $89.54 per share

- 2018-02: $83.92 per share

- 2018-03: $89.59 per share

- 2018-04: $95.79 per share

- 2018-05: $88.55 per share

- 2018-06: $88.81 per share

- 2018-07: $82.07 per share

- 2018-08: $77.11 per share

- 2018-09: $78.98 per share

- 2018-10: $71.17 per share

- 2018-11: $67.99 per share

- 2018-12: $57.05 per share

- 2019-01: $71.79 per share

- 2019-02: $81.85 per share

- 2019-03: $77.15 per share

- 2019-04: $87.87 per share

- 2019-05: $60.21 per share

- 2019-06: $66.31 per share

- 2019-07: $49.99 per share

- 2019-08: $48.17 per share

- 2019-09: $49.68 per share

- 2019-10: $42.89 per share

- 2019-11: $45.62 per share

- 2019-12: $48.45 per share

- 2020-01: $34.06 per share

- 2020-02: $28.76 per share

- 2020-03: $26.89 per share

- 2020-04: $37.73 per share

- 2020-05: $37.51 per share

- 2020-06: $36.71 per share

- 2020-07: $36.27 per share

- 2020-08: $35.55 per share

- 2020-09: $39.74 per share

- 2020-10: $42.02 per share

- 2020-11: $43.61 per share

- 2020-12: $47.06 per share

- 2021-01: $57.90 per share

- 2021-02: $63.88 per share

- 2021-03: $59.15 per share

- 2021-04: $60.10 per share

- 2021-05: $69.69 per share

- 2021-06: $67.64 per share

- 2021-07: $59.65 per share

- 2021-08: $65.30 per share

- 2021-09: $65.10 per share

- 2021-10: $64.21 per share

- 2021-11: $77.98 per share

- 2021-12: $84.99 per share

- 2022-01: $75.66 per share

- 2022-02: $79.61 per share

- 2022-03: $85.59 per share

- 2022-04: $91.33 per share

- 2022-05: $96.86 per share

- 2022-06: $100.09 per share

- 2022-07: $105.18 per share

- 2022-08: $109.46 per share

- 2022-09: $106.16 per share

- 2022-10: $112.05 per share

- 2022-11: $125.06 per share

- 2022-12: $106.38 per share

- 2023-01: $97.54 per share

- 2023-02: $101.44 per share

- 2023-03: $96.72 per share

- 2023-04: $98.68 per share

- 2023-05: $95.06 per share

- 2023-06: $106.28 per share

- 2023-07: $114.01 per share

- 2023-08: $119.90 per share

- 2023-09: $105.48 per share

- 2023-10: $94.66 per share

- 2023-11: $85.45 per share

- 2023-12: $98.52 per share

- 2024-01: $84.95 per share

- 2024-02: $85.18 per share

- 2024-03: $86.13 per share

- 2024-04: $78.44 per share

- 2024-05: $77.62 per share

- 2024-06: $74.40 per share

- 2024-07: $81.55 per share

- 2024-08: $89.59 per share

- 2024-09: $83.25 per share

- 2024-10: $48.04 per share

- 2024-11: $46.28 per share

- 2024-12: $39.37 per share

- 2025-01: $36.13 per share

- 2025-02: $32.74 per share

- 2025-03: $29.38 per share

- 2025-04: $29.47 per share

- 2025-05: $29.42 per share

- 2025-06: $29.97 per share

- 2025-07: $28.28 per share

- 2025-08: $29.57 per share

- 2025-09: $24.19 per share

- 2025-10: $24.20 per share

- 2025-11: $22.81 per share

- 2025-12: $24.30 per share

- 2026-01: $24.91 per share

- 2026-02: $19.00 per share

- 2026-03: $18.39 per share

- 2026-04: $19.94 per share

- 2026-05: $17.65 per share

- 2026-06: $17.52 per share

- 2026-07: $17.70 per share

- 2026-08: $16.61 per share

- 2026-09: $13.25 per share

- 2026-10: $15.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $7.19 per share, central $8.18 per share, high $9.50 per share

- FY2017: low $17.43 per share, central $19.84 per share, high $23.04 per share

- FY2018: low $18.76 per share, central $21.35 per share, high $24.79 per share

- FY2019: low $19.25 per share, central $23.57 per share, high $27.48 per share

- FY2020: low $29.22 per share, central $39.94 per share, high $46.70 per share

- FY2021: low $40.57 per share, central $55.22 per share, high $64.65 per share

- FY2022: low $46.95 per share, central $61.40 per share, high $71.60 per share

- FY2023: low $53.52 per share, central $71.56 per share, high $83.78 per share

- FY2024: low $44.55 per share, central $57.73 per share, high $67.43 per share

- FY2025: low $30.84 per share, central $35.04 per share, high $40.64 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/835011/000083501126000031/mgpi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.