# Middleby (MIDD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MIDD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:13.068Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $108.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $109.84 per share, central $124.71 per share, high $144.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value $124.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:13.068Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 36.0%

- FY2017: 30.8%

- FY2018: 19.2%

- FY2019: 20.6%

- FY2020: 16.4%

- FY2021: 19.8%

- FY2022: 16.2%

- FY2023: 16.0%

- FY2024: 16.5%

- FY2025: 15.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.20×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 386.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.16×

- FY2023: 1.10×

- FY2024: 1.18×

- FY2025: 0.88×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.8% vs 16.0%

- Per-share earnings: 4.01 to 5.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: $430M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.17

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.01

- FY2017: $4.23

- FY2018: $4.59

- FY2019: $5.09

- FY2020: $3.02

- FY2021: $6.94

- FY2022: $6.39

- FY2023: $5.96

- FY2024: $6.36

- FY2025: -$4.28

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -14.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.3%

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: -1.1%

- FY2019: -0.5%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: 1.0%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -3.3%

- FY2024: -3.5%

- FY2025: -14.4%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 45% since Dec 2021 · "Middleby’s (NASDAQ:MIDD) Q2 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates But Full-Year Sales Guidance Misses Expectations Significantly" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -17.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:09.740Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-12: MIDD Q2 Deep Dive: Tariffs and QSR Weakness Overshadow Sequential Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/midd-q2-deep-dive-tariffs-071821332.html))

- 2026-03-21: Middleby (MIDD) Is Down 5.1% After Food Processing Spin-Off, Buyback Reveal Sharper Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/middleby-midd-down-5-1-110528772.html))

- 2026-05-07: Middleby Fiscal Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise; Raises 2026 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/middleby-fiscal-q1-adjusted-earnings-122220614.html))

- 2026-08-14: Middleby (MIDD) Cuts Full Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/middleby-midd-cuts-full-guidance-190903517.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -17.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: $2.3B 

- FY2017: $2.3B 

- FY2018: $2.7B 

- FY2019: $3.0B 

- FY2020: $2.5B 

- FY2021: $3.3B 

- FY2022: $4.0B 

- FY2023: $4.0B 

- FY2024: $3.9B 

- FY2025: $3.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: 39.7% 

- FY2017: 39.1% 

- FY2018: 36.9% 

- FY2019: 37.3% 

- FY2020: 35.1% 

- FY2021: 36.8% 

- FY2022: 35.9% 

- FY2023: 38.0% 

- FY2024: 37.9% 

- FY2025: 39.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are USD 3.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 3201202000; grossProfit 1251915000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.9% to 39.1% during 2023–25; it earns 17.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3599783885649627],[2017,0.3080151706408382],[2018,0.19166667995442097],[2019,0.2062647858048205],[2020,0.16436939799079078],[2021,0.19811110452635325],[2022,0.16211369161082356],[2023,0.16038745719843922],[2024,0.1649753265279863],[2025,0.15316202679460122]]; median 0.17832100324120365. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back USD 723.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 24817000; cash acquisitions 210921000; owner earnings 315499000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6685314375005943.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 54493000; cash acquisitions 305251000; owner earnings 313409000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9739701157273722.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 41439000; cash acquisitions 1197984000; owner earnings 372951000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.212175325981161.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 46609000; cash acquisitions 281058000; owner earnings 409059000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6870842592388873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 41901000; cash acquisitions 79003000; owner earnings 273479000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.28888141319808835.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 51551000; cash acquisitions 963600000; owner earnings 562184000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.7140295703897657.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 69522000; cash acquisitions 278797000; owner earnings 505108000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5519552254171385.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 86984000; cash acquisitions 37884000; owner earnings 439298000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08623758815200616.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 49310000; cash acquisitions 111428000; owner earnings 506297000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2200842588441172.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 723613000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MIDD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.701 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The company is subject to currency fluctuations and other risks from its operations outside the United States.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm (filed 2026-03-04); Furthermore, the company may experience difficulties in scaling its operations due to economic pressures in the U.S. and international markets. The company is subject to currency fluctuations and other risks from its operations outside the United States. The company has manufacturing and distribution operations located in Asia, Europe and Latin America.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.02484875183505645. Price 108.68; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.1534887896750967 → FY2025 -3.766183480940053. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $112.11 per share

- 2016-11: $136.98 per share

- 2016-12: $128.81 per share

- 2017-01: $134.18 per share

- 2017-02: $138.71 per share

- 2017-03: $136.45 per share

- 2017-04: $136.13 per share

- 2017-05: $128.36 per share

- 2017-06: $121.51 per share

- 2017-07: $130.68 per share

- 2017-08: $121.70 per share

- 2017-09: $128.17 per share

- 2017-10: $115.90 per share

- 2017-11: $127.52 per share

- 2017-12: $134.95 per share

- 2018-01: $136.26 per share

- 2018-02: $120.25 per share

- 2018-03: $123.79 per share

- 2018-04: $125.84 per share

- 2018-05: $99.62 per share

- 2018-06: $104.42 per share

- 2018-07: $102.48 per share

- 2018-08: $121.54 per share

- 2018-09: $129.35 per share

- 2018-10: $112.30 per share

- 2018-11: $120.79 per share

- 2018-12: $102.73 per share

- 2019-01: $117.62 per share

- 2019-02: $122.59 per share

- 2019-03: $130.03 per share

- 2019-04: $132.13 per share

- 2019-05: $130.47 per share

- 2019-06: $135.70 per share

- 2019-07: $134.38 per share

- 2019-08: $109.66 per share

- 2019-09: $116.90 per share

- 2019-10: $120.95 per share

- 2019-11: $115.76 per share

- 2019-12: $109.52 per share

- 2020-01: $112.16 per share

- 2020-02: $111.81 per share

- 2020-03: $56.88 per share

- 2020-04: $55.63 per share

- 2020-05: $68.10 per share

- 2020-06: $78.94 per share

- 2020-07: $83.06 per share

- 2020-08: $97.90 per share

- 2020-09: $89.71 per share

- 2020-10: $99.54 per share

- 2020-11: $135.99 per share

- 2020-12: $128.92 per share

- 2021-01: $135.72 per share

- 2021-02: $146.41 per share

- 2021-03: $165.75 per share

- 2021-04: $181.32 per share

- 2021-05: $164.28 per share

- 2021-06: $173.26 per share

- 2021-07: $191.49 per share

- 2021-08: $182.94 per share

- 2021-09: $170.51 per share

- 2021-10: $182.44 per share

- 2021-11: $174.68 per share

- 2021-12: $196.76 per share

- 2022-01: $185.20 per share

- 2022-02: $177.62 per share

- 2022-03: $163.94 per share

- 2022-04: $153.89 per share

- 2022-05: $151.46 per share

- 2022-06: $125.36 per share

- 2022-07: $144.69 per share

- 2022-08: $143.82 per share

- 2022-09: $128.17 per share

- 2022-10: $139.86 per share

- 2022-11: $144.19 per share

- 2022-12: $133.90 per share

- 2023-01: $155.45 per share

- 2023-02: $155.49 per share

- 2023-03: $146.61 per share

- 2023-04: $140.88 per share

- 2023-05: $132.00 per share

- 2023-06: $147.83 per share

- 2023-07: $151.85 per share

- 2023-08: $145.59 per share

- 2023-09: $128.00 per share

- 2023-10: $112.87 per share

- 2023-11: $126.23 per share

- 2023-12: $147.17 per share

- 2024-01: $141.07 per share

- 2024-02: $152.16 per share

- 2024-03: $160.79 per share

- 2024-04: $138.97 per share

- 2024-05: $128.91 per share

- 2024-06: $122.61 per share

- 2024-07: $135.58 per share

- 2024-08: $140.62 per share

- 2024-09: $139.13 per share

- 2024-10: $129.70 per share

- 2024-11: $143.39 per share

- 2024-12: $135.45 per share

- 2025-01: $171.14 per share

- 2025-02: $165.41 per share

- 2025-03: $151.98 per share

- 2025-04: $133.35 per share

- 2025-05: $146.13 per share

- 2025-06: $144.00 per share

- 2025-07: $145.20 per share

- 2025-08: $136.85 per share

- 2025-09: $132.93 per share

- 2025-10: $124.23 per share

- 2025-11: $118.20 per share

- 2025-12: $148.67 per share

- 2026-01: $147.17 per share

- 2026-02: $168.86 per share

- 2026-03: $132.58 per share

- 2026-04: $140.36 per share

- 2026-05: $155.01 per share

- 2026-06: $172.01 per share

- 2026-07: $133.58 per share

- 2026-08: $110.84 per share

- 2026-09: $103.58 per share

- 2026-10: $108.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $54.91 per share, central $72.82 per share, high $85.19 per share

- FY2017: low $55.40 per share, central $71.32 per share, high $83.27 per share

- FY2018: low $59.52 per share, central $68.94 per share, high $80.09 per share

- FY2019: low $66.67 per share, central $78.42 per share, high $91.15 per share

- FY2020: low $58.72 per share, central $67.17 per share, high $77.54 per share

- FY2021: low $71.66 per share, central $82.44 per share, high $95.55 per share

- FY2022: low $97.91 per share, central $122.17 per share, high $142.39 per share

- FY2023: low $90.73 per share, central $110.69 per share, high $128.65 per share

- FY2024: low $93.51 per share, central $112.48 per share, high $129.63 per share

- FY2025: low $70.01 per share, central $79.32 per share, high $91.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769520/000076952026000011/midd-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.