# Markel (MKL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MKL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:14.472Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,824.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $688.71 per share, central $860.89 per share, high $1,147.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value $860.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:14.472Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 8

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.88×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $456M

- FY2017: $362M

- FY2018: -$128M

- FY2019: $1.8B

- FY2020: $798M

- FY2021: $2.4B

- FY2022: -$252M

- FY2023: $2.0B

- FY2024: $2.7B

- FY2025: $2.1B

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 8.9%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -0.8%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.7%

- FY2017: 3.0%

- FY2018: -2.5%

- FY2019: 12.7%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: 25.4%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: 19.3%

- FY2024: 22.4%

- FY2025: 14.6%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 11.5%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $557.15

- Ending book value per share: $1K

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 146.7%

- FY2017: -15.8%

- FY2018: -39.4%

- FY2019: 100.1%

- FY2020: 10.5%

- FY2021: -28.8%

- FY2022: 168.7%

- FY2023: -60.7%

- FY2024: 16.6%

- FY2025: 21.4%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.1%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.8%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.56×

- Book value created per share: $913.26

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $586.30

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 100

- FY2018: 99

- FY2019: 99

- FY2020: 98

- FY2021: 98

- FY2022: 97

- FY2023: 95

- FY2024: 93

- FY2025: 90

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Josh Tarasoff](https://gigainvestors.com/GLC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 8.1% a year forever · "MKL Q4 Deep Dive: Profitability Rises on Insurance Restructuring and Diversified Segment Gains" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · net income -23.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:10.014Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 8.1% a year forever

- 2025-05-01: Markel Group Q1 Earnings Top Estimates on Solid Reinsurance Unit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-group-q1-earnings-top-144900145.html))

- 2025-10-31: MKL Q3 Deep Dive: Segment Restructuring and Underwriting Gains Drive Outperformance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mkl-q3-deep-dive-segment-125114045.html))

- 2025-11-03: Markel Group Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Solid Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-group-q3-earnings-beat-164800340.html))

- 2026-02-05: MKL Q4 Deep Dive: Profitability Rises on Insurance Restructuring and Diversified Segment Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mkl-q4-deep-dive-profitability-191050175.html))

- 2026-07-31: MKL Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Weak Industrial, Financial Units ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mkl-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-180100610.html))

- 2026-08-04: MKL Q2 Deep Dive: Missed Profit Expectations Amid Reserve Charge and Investment in AI ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mkl-q2-deep-dive-missed-034122347.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income -23.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000109634326000020/mkl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $456M 

- FY2017: $362M 

- FY2018: -$128M 

- FY2019: $1.8B 

- FY2020: $798M 

- FY2021: $2.4B 

- FY2022: -$252M 

- FY2023: $2.0B 

- FY2024: $2.7B 

- FY2025: $2.1B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are USD 15.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000109634326000020/mkl-20251231.htm#000109634326000020 (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 15513233000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MKL.US: Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments. The company offers general and professional liability, specialty programs, workers' compensation, and marine and energy insurance; personal lines insurance, such as property coverage for homeowners; property insurance coverages, including fire, windstorm, hail, water damage, and catastrophe-exposed property risks, such as earthquake and wind; and credit and surety products. It also distributes exterior building products, such as siding, windows, doors, roofing, and gutters; invests in asset and wealth management companies; engages in the homebuilding of single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums; designs and provides leather handbags and accessories; owns and operates manufactured housing communities; and sponsors teachers for placement. In addition, the company offers structural and architectural precast concrete; ornamental plants; industrial bakery equipment; over-the-road car-hauling equipment, such as trailers; cutter suction and auger dredges; and laminated oak and composite flooring for trailers. Further, it provides fire protection, life safety, and low-voltage solutions; heavy lift crawler cranes; erosion control and stormwater management; gas containment and transportation equipment; wall panel systems and dorm room furniture; insurance-linked securities investment and insurance management; equipment leasing; fronting and automobile collateral protection coverage; information technology consulting; data collection and pricing intelligence solutions; and concierge healthcare membership services. The company was formerly known as Markel Corporation and changed its name to Markel Group Inc. in May 2023. Markel Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

It earns 8.9% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.026916423874505126],[2017,0.03026443659357309],[2018,-0.025052369968271166],[2019,0.12736708631142396],[2020,0.05138612002034494],[2021,0.25384702174102836],[2022,-0.007662594237543975],[2023,0.19256668203223154],[2024,0.22352455204757052],[2025,0.14620601921088133]]; median 0.08937660316588444. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 429.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,559300000],[2017,664657000],[2018,9164000],[2019,8992000],[2020,18400000],[2021,36000000],[2022,36000000],[2023,36000000],[2024,36000000],[2025,618000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000109634326000020/mkl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 429519000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MKL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.4489999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

In 2025, the top five independent brokers accounted for 37% of our underwriting gross premiums written.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000109634326000020/mkl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); A significant volume of premium for the property and casualty insurance industry is produced through a small number of large insurance brokers. In 2025, the top five independent brokers accounted for 37% of our underwriting gross premiums written. Investments 

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 8.1% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Price 1824.54; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 34.435531707820154; discount 0.1; growth 0.08112645833589828. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $877.43 per share

- 2016-11: $898.34 per share

- 2016-12: $904.50 per share

- 2017-01: $925.00 per share

- 2017-02: $979.73 per share

- 2017-03: $975.86 per share

- 2017-04: $969.60 per share

- 2017-05: $977.25 per share

- 2017-06: $975.86 per share

- 2017-07: $1,071.51 per share

- 2017-08: $1,051.99 per share

- 2017-09: $1,067.98 per share

- 2017-10: $1,084.30 per share

- 2017-11: $1,106.90 per share

- 2017-12: $1,139.13 per share

- 2018-01: $1,147.69 per share

- 2018-02: $1,112.00 per share

- 2018-03: $1,170.25 per share

- 2018-04: $1,130.04 per share

- 2018-05: $1,097.08 per share

- 2018-06: $1,084.35 per share

- 2018-07: $1,170.00 per share

- 2018-08: $1,208.80 per share

- 2018-09: $1,188.49 per share

- 2018-10: $1,093.24 per share

- 2018-11: $1,144.14 per share

- 2018-12: $1,038.05 per share

- 2019-01: $1,053.51 per share

- 2019-02: $1,004.88 per share

- 2019-03: $996.24 per share

- 2019-04: $1,071.51 per share

- 2019-05: $1,058.87 per share

- 2019-06: $1,089.60 per share

- 2019-07: $1,113.93 per share

- 2019-08: $1,143.08 per share

- 2019-09: $1,181.90 per share

- 2019-10: $1,171.00 per share

- 2019-11: $1,135.55 per share

- 2019-12: $1,143.17 per share

- 2020-01: $1,172.97 per share

- 2020-02: $1,181.60 per share

- 2020-03: $927.89 per share

- 2020-04: $865.84 per share

- 2020-05: $897.42 per share

- 2020-06: $923.17 per share

- 2020-07: $1,044.54 per share

- 2020-08: $1,086.83 per share

- 2020-09: $973.70 per share

- 2020-10: $932.80 per share

- 2020-11: $973.83 per share

- 2020-12: $1,033.30 per share

- 2021-01: $969.48 per share

- 2021-02: $1,088.80 per share

- 2021-03: $1,139.62 per share

- 2021-04: $1,176.42 per share

- 2021-05: $1,225.49 per share

- 2021-06: $1,186.71 per share

- 2021-07: $1,206.17 per share

- 2021-08: $1,270.25 per share

- 2021-09: $1,195.13 per share

- 2021-10: $1,313.13 per share

- 2021-11: $1,194.82 per share

- 2021-12: $1,234.00 per share

- 2022-01: $1,232.74 per share

- 2022-02: $1,242.91 per share

- 2022-03: $1,475.24 per share

- 2022-04: $1,353.28 per share

- 2022-05: $1,369.43 per share

- 2022-06: $1,293.25 per share

- 2022-07: $1,297.14 per share

- 2022-08: $1,194.11 per share

- 2022-09: $1,084.22 per share

- 2022-10: $1,206.10 per share

- 2022-11: $1,324.84 per share

- 2022-12: $1,317.49 per share

- 2023-01: $1,408.98 per share

- 2023-02: $1,329.86 per share

- 2023-03: $1,277.41 per share

- 2023-04: $1,368.53 per share

- 2023-05: $1,314.73 per share

- 2023-06: $1,383.18 per share

- 2023-07: $1,449.71 per share

- 2023-08: $1,478.92 per share

- 2023-09: $1,472.49 per share

- 2023-10: $1,470.52 per share

- 2023-11: $1,439.09 per share

- 2023-12: $1,419.90 per share

- 2024-01: $1,497.43 per share

- 2024-02: $1,492.48 per share

- 2024-03: $1,521.48 per share

- 2024-04: $1,458.40 per share

- 2024-05: $1,641.59 per share

- 2024-06: $1,575.66 per share

- 2024-07: $1,638.85 per share

- 2024-08: $1,600.68 per share

- 2024-09: $1,568.58 per share

- 2024-10: $1,542.01 per share

- 2024-11: $1,782.92 per share

- 2024-12: $1,726.23 per share

- 2025-01: $1,828.78 per share

- 2025-02: $1,933.44 per share

- 2025-03: $1,869.61 per share

- 2025-04: $1,818.60 per share

- 2025-05: $1,941.70 per share

- 2025-06: $1,997.36 per share

- 2025-07: $2,008.29 per share

- 2025-08: $1,959.06 per share

- 2025-09: $1,911.36 per share

- 2025-10: $1,974.53 per share

- 2025-11: $2,080.44 per share

- 2025-12: $2,149.65 per share

- 2026-01: $2,040.64 per share

- 2026-02: $2,072.47 per share

- 2026-03: $1,914.07 per share

- 2026-04: $1,772.47 per share

- 2026-05: $1,815.59 per share

- 2026-06: $1,953.01 per share

- 2026-07: $1,882.34 per share

- 2026-08: $1,802.91 per share

- 2026-09: $1,712.45 per share

- 2026-10: $1,824.54 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $523.17 per share, central $653.96 per share, high $871.94 per share

- FY2017: low $124.26 per share, central $153.07 per share, high $199.29 per share

- FY2018: low $53.54 per share, central $65.95 per share, high $85.87 per share

- FY2019: low $147.54 per share, central $181.75 per share, high $236.63 per share

- FY2020: low $123.95 per share, central $147.90 per share, high $183.33 per share

- FY2021: low $77.01 per share, central $91.90 per share, high $113.91 per share

- FY2022: low $381.56 per share, central $447.53 per share, high $541.09 per share

- FY2023: low $49.63 per share, central $59.37 per share, high $73.87 per share

- FY2024: low $291.20 per share, central $364.00 per share, high $485.33 per share

- FY2025: low $652.75 per share, central $815.94 per share, high $1,087.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096343/000109634326000020/mkl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.