# Mueller Industries (MLI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MLI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:15.608Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $60.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $48.98 per share, central $61.04 per share, high $70.32 per share. Buy at or below the central value $61.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:15.608Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.42×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.22×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 41.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 23.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 14.3%

- FY2018: 16.3%

- FY2019: 17.8%

- FY2020: 21.0%

- FY2021: 49.2%

- FY2022: 67.1%

- FY2023: 58.3%

- FY2024: 40.3%

- FY2025: 79.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 43.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 92.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.0% vs 58.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.39 to 2.65 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 27.3%

- Per-share value change: $2.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.65

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.21

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $916M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 58.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.44

- FY2017: $0.37

- FY2018: $0.46

- FY2019: $0.45

- FY2020: $0.62

- FY2021: $2.06

- FY2022: $2.91

- FY2023: $2.65

- FY2024: $2.65

- FY2025: $3.43

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.0%

- FY2017: 3.2%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -6.9%

- FY2021: 9.1%

- FY2022: -2.9%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -1.2%

- FY2025: 0.3%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 55% since Jan 2026 · "Mueller Industries Insider Selling As Margins Tighten And Cash Flow Shines" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +11.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:10.390Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.7% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-21: Mueller Industries Stock Rises 8% Over Higher Earnings In Q1 ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mueller-industries-stock-rises-8-over-higher-earnings-q1))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +11.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89439/000008943926000008/mli-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $2.3B 

- FY2018: $2.5B 

- FY2019: $2.4B 

- FY2020: $2.4B 

- FY2021: $3.8B 

- FY2022: $4.0B 

- FY2023: $3.4B 

- FY2024: $3.8B 

- FY2025: $4.2B 

- FY2026: $4.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 27.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89439/000008943926000008/mli-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 14.4% 

- FY2018: 14.3% 

- FY2019: 16.3% 

- FY2020: 18.0% 

- FY2021: 22.0% 

- FY2022: 28.1% 

- FY2023: 28.9% 

- FY2024: 27.7% 

- FY2025: 27.4% 

- FY2026: 27.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in metal fabrication; annual sales are USD 4.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 4178547000; grossProfit 1143903000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MLI.US: Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia and the Middle East, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; resells steel pipe, brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialties. This segment sells its products to wholesalers in the plumbing and refrigeration markets, distributors to the manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries, building material retailers, and air-conditioning original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Industrial Metals segment offers brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods; brass rod, bar, and shapes; cold-form aluminum and copper products; high-volume machining of aluminum, steel, brass, and cast-iron impacts and castings for automotive applications; brass and aluminum forgings; brass, aluminum, and stainless steel valves; fluid control solutions; and gas train assembles; specialty copper, copper alloy, and aluminum tube to OEMs in the industrial, construction, plumbing, refrigeration, utility, telecommunication, and electrical transmission and distribution markets, as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) markets. The Climate segment provides valves, protection devices, and brass fittings; and coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes to wholesalers and OEMs in the HVAC and refrigeration markets. This segment also manufactures and distributes high-pressure components and accessories, as well as insulated HVAC flexible duct systems. Mueller Industries, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.4% to 28.9% during 2023–25; it earns 41.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1426285648939205],[2018,0.16312993089702144],[2019,0.17826699766336176],[2020,0.20988285486932115],[2021,0.4921188761318156],[2022,0.6706491494096696],[2023,0.5829574200200154],[2024,0.40255560335890384],[2025,0.7948683965235466],[2026,0.4349710558715008]]; median 0.41876332961520235. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 243.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 37497000; cash acquisitions 20533000; owner earnings 97363000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.21089120096956748.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 12187000; upkeep 33944000; cash acquisitions 18396000; owner earnings 85598000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.35728638519591577.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 38481000; cash acquisitions 167677000; owner earnings 105533000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5888584613343693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 31162000; cash acquisitions 3465000; owner earnings 112503000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.030799178688568307.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 43885000; cash acquisitions 72648000; owner earnings 140451000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5172480082021488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 31833000; cash acquisitions 30206000; owner earnings 482077000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06265804010562628.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 37639000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 664408000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 54025000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 588826000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 27070000; upkeep 53133000; cash acquisitions 602692000; owner earnings 604879000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.0411371530504447.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 244000; upkeep 68561000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 765191000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.00031887463391493104.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,21224000],[2017,196944000],[2018,22705000],[2019,22325000],[2020,22341000],[2021,29137000],[2022,55787000],[2023,66868000],[2024,89107000],[2025,109050000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 243615000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MLI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.122 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89439/000008943926000008/mli-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-25); our operating margins.

Both the costs of raw materials used in our manufactured products (copper, brass, zinc, and aluminum) and energy costs (electricity, natural gas and fuel) have been volatile during the last several years, which has resulted in changes in production and distribution costs. Fluctuations in commodities prices are caused by varied and complex factors beyond our control, including global supply and demand impacted by industry production and inventory levels; global economic and political conditions; national and international regulatory, trade and/or tax policies, including tariffs and other controls or restrictions on

6

imports and exports; current inflation rates and expectations regarding future inflation rates; and the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to foreign currencies. For example, tariffs may impact the total cost of our products and the components and raw materials that go into manufacturing them and could adversely impact the gross margin the Company earns on its products. Fuel and utility costs also have been, and will continue to be, affected by factors outside our control, such as supply and demand for fuel and utility services in both local and regional markets, including increased demand resulting from data center development.

While we typically attempt to pass costs through to our customers or to modify or adapt our activities to mitigate the impact of increases, we may not be able to do so successfully. The Company is prepared to proactively work with its supply chain to mitigate the cost impact and pass increases in costs to its customers, to the extent possible, when they occur, but failure to fully pass increases to our customers or to modify or adapt our activities to mitigate the impact could have a material adverse impact on our operating margins. Additionally, if we are for any reason unable to obtain raw materials or energy, our ability to manufacture our products would be impacted, which could have a material adverse impact on our operating margins.

Enhanced U.S. tariffs, import/export restrictions or other trade barriers may have a negative effect on global economic conditions, financial markets and our business.

There is currently significant uncertainty about the future relationship between the U.S. and various other countries with respect to trade policies, treaties, tariffs and taxes. Current or future tariffs imposed by the U.S. may negatively impact our customers’ businesses, thereby causing an indirect negative impact on our sales. For example, during 2025, the U.S. presidential administration threatened or imposed tariffs on imports from various countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada. In response, some of these countries threatened or announced tariffs on imports from the U.S. Further, on February 20, 2026, the United States Supreme Court issued a ruling striking down certain 

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 23.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03973130880610054. Price 60.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.4109236764499368 → FY2025 3.43159598894988. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $30.29 per share

- 2016-11: $37.99 per share

- 2016-12: $39.96 per share

- 2017-01: $40.26 per share

- 2017-02: $41.82 per share

- 2017-03: $34.23 per share

- 2017-04: $32.04 per share

- 2017-05: $28.28 per share

- 2017-06: $30.45 per share

- 2017-07: $31.50 per share

- 2017-08: $29.83 per share

- 2017-09: $34.95 per share

- 2017-10: $34.75 per share

- 2017-11: $36.40 per share

- 2017-12: $35.43 per share

- 2018-01: $33.09 per share

- 2018-02: $26.49 per share

- 2018-03: $26.16 per share

- 2018-04: $27.18 per share

- 2018-05: $30.20 per share

- 2018-06: $29.51 per share

- 2018-07: $33.11 per share

- 2018-08: $31.97 per share

- 2018-09: $28.98 per share

- 2018-10: $24.35 per share

- 2018-11: $23.82 per share

- 2018-12: $23.36 per share

- 2019-01: $25.91 per share

- 2019-02: $33.05 per share

- 2019-03: $31.34 per share

- 2019-04: $29.17 per share

- 2019-05: $26.95 per share

- 2019-06: $29.27 per share

- 2019-07: $30.19 per share

- 2019-08: $26.36 per share

- 2019-09: $28.68 per share

- 2019-10: $30.77 per share

- 2019-11: $31.39 per share

- 2019-12: $31.75 per share

- 2020-01: $29.17 per share

- 2020-02: $27.98 per share

- 2020-03: $23.94 per share

- 2020-04: $25.90 per share

- 2020-05: $26.78 per share

- 2020-06: $26.58 per share

- 2020-07: $27.96 per share

- 2020-08: $29.70 per share

- 2020-09: $27.06 per share

- 2020-10: $28.93 per share

- 2020-11: $32.76 per share

- 2020-12: $35.11 per share

- 2021-01: $34.15 per share

- 2021-02: $40.64 per share

- 2021-03: $41.35 per share

- 2021-04: $44.87 per share

- 2021-05: $46.43 per share

- 2021-06: $43.31 per share

- 2021-07: $43.40 per share

- 2021-08: $44.61 per share

- 2021-09: $41.10 per share

- 2021-10: $52.64 per share

- 2021-11: $55.33 per share

- 2021-12: $59.36 per share

- 2022-01: $51.66 per share

- 2022-02: $57.05 per share

- 2022-03: $54.17 per share

- 2022-04: $54.15 per share

- 2022-05: $53.85 per share

- 2022-06: $53.29 per share

- 2022-07: $67.33 per share

- 2022-08: $63.17 per share

- 2022-09: $59.44 per share

- 2022-10: $62.64 per share

- 2022-11: $68.77 per share

- 2022-12: $59.00 per share

- 2023-01: $65.55 per share

- 2023-02: $73.97 per share

- 2023-03: $73.48 per share

- 2023-04: $71.85 per share

- 2023-05: $74.26 per share

- 2023-06: $87.28 per share

- 2023-07: $81.06 per share

- 2023-08: $77.16 per share

- 2023-09: $75.16 per share

- 2023-10: $37.71 per share

- 2023-11: $41.53 per share

- 2023-12: $47.15 per share

- 2024-01: $48.00 per share

- 2024-02: $51.38 per share

- 2024-03: $53.93 per share

- 2024-04: $55.82 per share

- 2024-05: $58.91 per share

- 2024-06: $56.94 per share

- 2024-07: $70.94 per share

- 2024-08: $72.71 per share

- 2024-09: $74.10 per share

- 2024-10: $81.97 per share

- 2024-11: $80.77 per share

- 2024-12: $79.36 per share

- 2025-01: $78.75 per share

- 2025-02: $80.18 per share

- 2025-03: $76.14 per share

- 2025-04: $73.56 per share

- 2025-05: $77.87 per share

- 2025-06: $79.47 per share

- 2025-07: $85.37 per share

- 2025-08: $95.94 per share

- 2025-09: $101.11 per share

- 2025-10: $105.87 per share

- 2025-11: $109.87 per share

- 2025-12: $114.80 per share

- 2026-01: $136.14 per share

- 2026-02: $117.96 per share

- 2026-03: $110.80 per share

- 2026-04: $135.43 per share

- 2026-05: $128.60 per share

- 2026-06: $122.93 per share

- 2026-07: $66.41 per share

- 2026-08: $62.41 per share

- 2026-09: $60.61 per share

- 2026-10: $60.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $5.74 per share, central $6.34 per share, high $7.15 per share

- FY2017: low $5.13 per share, central $5.79 per share, high $6.67 per share

- FY2018: low $5.33 per share, central $6.16 per share, high $7.14 per share

- FY2019: low $5.76 per share, central $6.87 per share, high $7.97 per share

- FY2020: low $5.85 per share, central $6.81 per share, high $7.87 per share

- FY2021: low $9.02 per share, central $10.99 per share, high $12.80 per share

- FY2022: low $15.65 per share, central $19.82 per share, high $22.74 per share

- FY2023: low $28.35 per share, central $34.19 per share, high $39.03 per share

- FY2024: low $33.32 per share, central $37.32 per share, high $42.65 per share

- FY2025: low $44.10 per share, central $54.82 per share, high $63.07 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/89439/000008943926000008/mli-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.