# 3M (MMM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MMM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:17.422Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $165.33 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $96.83 per share, central $109.42 per share, high $126.19 per share. Buy at or below the central value $109.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:17.422Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.95×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: -0.28×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 7.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 42.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 17.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 22.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 49.6%

- FY2017: 43.0%

- FY2018: 53.1%

- FY2019: 36.2%

- FY2020: 40.5%

- FY2021: 40.9%

- FY2022: 17.3%

- FY2023: -76.8%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 65.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $13B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.05×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.12×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 49.6% vs 65.8%

- Per-share earnings: 6.63 to 6.00 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Market cap gain: -$22B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $351M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.00

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.25

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $9.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $37B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 49.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 65.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.82

- FY2017: $6.63

- FY2018: $7.43

- FY2019: $6.53

- FY2020: $7.83

- FY2021: $8.46

- FY2022: $10.18

- FY2023: -$12.63

- FY2024: $7.55

- FY2025: $6.00

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.71×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.60×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.9%

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: -3.0%

- FY2019: -5.6%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -3.3%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: -27.0%

- FY2024: 5.9%

- FY2025: 2.5%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years · sales +1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:10.735Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-21: 3M Delivers Strong Third-Quarter Results; Increases Full-Year Margin and EPS Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-delivers-strong-third-quarter-103000550.html))

- 2026-01-20: 3M Says Trump’s Greenland Tariffs Could Be a $40 Million Hit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/16441f0a-688d-322f-b407-df0a1ba0952c/3m-says-trump%E2%80%99s-greenland.html))

- 2026-02-04: Assessing 3M (MMM) Valuation After Earnings Beat And Ongoing PFAS And Consumer Segment Concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-3m-mmm-valuation-earnings-043808962.html))

- 2026-06-25: 3M's Fiber Optic Breakthrough Is Helping Power AI's Massive Buildout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/3ms-fiber-optic-breakthrough-helping-203000235.html))

- 2026-07-21: 3M shares jump on Q2 earnings beat, raised guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/3m-shares-jump-q2-earnings-140300743.html))

- 2026-09-23: 3M's Consumer Business Hurt by Weak Retail Markets: Is a Turnaround Likely? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/3ms-consumer-business-hurt-weak-154500188.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: $30B 

- FY2017: $32B 

- FY2018: $33B 

- FY2019: $32B 

- FY2020: $32B 

- FY2021: $35B 

- FY2022: $34B 

- FY2023: $33B 

- FY2024: $25B 

- FY2025: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: 49.7% 

- FY2017: 49.5% 

- FY2018: 49.4% 

- FY2019: 47.6% 

- FY2020: 48.5% 

- FY2021: 47.0% 

- FY2022: 43.7% 

- FY2023: 43.5% 

- FY2024: 41.0% 

- FY2025: 39.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are USD 24.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: revenue 24948000000; grossProfit 9868000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MMM.US: 3M Company provides diversified technology services in the America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, and Consumer. The Safety and Industrial segment provides industrial abrasives and finishing for metalworking applications; autobody repair solutions; industrial specialty products, such as personal hygiene products, masking, and packaging materials; electrical products and materials for construction and maintenance, power distribution, and electrical original equipment manufacturers; structural adhesives and tapes; respiratory, hearing, eye, and fall protection solutions; and natural and color-coated mineral granules for shingles. The Transportation and Electronics segment provides ceramic solutions; attachment and bonding, films, sound, and temperature management for transportation vehicles; format graphic films for advertising and fleet signage; reflective signage for highway and vehicle safety; light management films and electronics assembly solutions; chip packaging and interconnection solutions; semiconductor production materials; and data center solutions. The Consumer segment offers cleaning products for the home; consumer air quality products; picture hanging accessories; retail abrasives, paint accessories, and safety products; stationery and office products; automotive appearance products; and consumer bandages, tapes, braces, and supports. It serves automotive; commercial solutions; consumer markets; design and construction; electronics; energy; government; manufacturing; safety; transportation industries. The company offers its products through e-commerce and traditional wholesalers, retailers, jobbers, distributors, channel partner, and dealers, as well as directly to users. 3M Company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39.6% to 43.5% during 2023–25; it earns 42% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4959717394991571],[2017,0.42972552607502285],[2018,0.5313582452875878],[2019,0.36218695039844245],[2020,0.4054511244445109],[2021,0.409495182369564],[2022,0.1725629764605718],[2023,-0.7678756255989777],[2024,1.1769322897834416],[2025,0.6577136925245975]]; median 0.4196103542222934. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 4.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1420000000; owner earnings 5104000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1373000000; owner earnings 5029000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2018: growth capex 89000000; upkeep 1488000000; owner earnings 5349000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.016638624041876986.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1699000000; owner earnings 4464000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1501000000; owner earnings 5859000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1603000000; owner earnings 6233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1749000000; owner earnings 5859000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1181000000; owner earnings 4216000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 910000000; owner earnings 3648000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,2678000000],[2017,2803000000],[2018,3193000000],[2019,3316000000],[2020,3388000000],[2021,3420000000],[2022,3369000000],[2023,3311000000],[2024,1982000000],[2025,1175000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 4813000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MMM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.098 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07723342053856397. Price 165.33; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.307644019508427 → FY2025 6.73933123960835. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $143.60 per share

- 2016-12: $149.31 per share

- 2017-01: $146.17 per share

- 2017-02: $155.81 per share

- 2017-03: $159.97 per share

- 2017-04: $163.74 per share

- 2017-05: $170.96 per share

- 2017-06: $174.07 per share

- 2017-07: $168.20 per share

- 2017-08: $170.84 per share

- 2017-09: $175.50 per share

- 2017-10: $192.47 per share

- 2017-11: $203.29 per share

- 2017-12: $196.80 per share

- 2018-01: $209.45 per share

- 2018-02: $196.91 per share

- 2018-03: $183.55 per share

- 2018-04: $162.53 per share

- 2018-05: $164.91 per share

- 2018-06: $164.48 per share

- 2018-07: $177.53 per share

- 2018-08: $176.35 per share

- 2018-09: $176.18 per share

- 2018-10: $159.08 per share

- 2018-11: $173.85 per share

- 2018-12: $159.31 per share

- 2019-01: $167.47 per share

- 2019-02: $173.40 per share

- 2019-03: $173.73 per share

- 2019-04: $158.45 per share

- 2019-05: $133.57 per share

- 2019-06: $144.93 per share

- 2019-07: $146.09 per share

- 2019-08: $135.22 per share

- 2019-09: $137.46 per share

- 2019-10: $137.95 per share

- 2019-11: $141.95 per share

- 2019-12: $147.51 per share

- 2020-01: $132.66 per share

- 2020-02: $124.78 per share

- 2020-03: $114.14 per share

- 2020-04: $127.02 per share

- 2020-05: $130.80 per share

- 2020-06: $130.43 per share

- 2020-07: $125.81 per share

- 2020-08: $136.30 per share

- 2020-09: $133.93 per share

- 2020-10: $133.75 per share

- 2020-11: $144.42 per share

- 2020-12: $146.15 per share

- 2021-01: $146.87 per share

- 2021-02: $146.37 per share

- 2021-03: $161.10 per share

- 2021-04: $164.83 per share

- 2021-05: $169.77 per share

- 2021-06: $166.08 per share

- 2021-07: $165.50 per share

- 2021-08: $162.83 per share

- 2021-09: $146.67 per share

- 2021-10: $149.40 per share

- 2021-11: $142.17 per share

- 2021-12: $148.52 per share

- 2022-01: $138.81 per share

- 2022-02: $124.29 per share

- 2022-03: $124.48 per share

- 2022-04: $120.59 per share

- 2022-05: $124.82 per share

- 2022-06: $108.20 per share

- 2022-07: $119.77 per share

- 2022-08: $103.97 per share

- 2022-09: $92.39 per share

- 2022-10: $105.18 per share

- 2022-11: $105.33 per share

- 2022-12: $100.27 per share

- 2023-01: $96.22 per share

- 2023-02: $90.08 per share

- 2023-03: $87.88 per share

- 2023-04: $88.81 per share

- 2023-05: $78.02 per share

- 2023-06: $83.69 per share

- 2023-07: $93.23 per share

- 2023-08: $89.19 per share

- 2023-09: $78.28 per share

- 2023-10: $76.05 per share

- 2023-11: $82.83 per share

- 2023-12: $91.40 per share

- 2024-01: $78.89 per share

- 2024-02: $77.02 per share

- 2024-03: $88.69 per share

- 2024-04: $96.51 per share

- 2024-05: $100.14 per share

- 2024-06: $102.19 per share

- 2024-07: $127.55 per share

- 2024-08: $134.69 per share

- 2024-09: $136.70 per share

- 2024-10: $128.47 per share

- 2024-11: $133.53 per share

- 2024-12: $129.09 per share

- 2025-01: $152.20 per share

- 2025-02: $155.12 per share

- 2025-03: $146.86 per share

- 2025-04: $138.91 per share

- 2025-05: $148.35 per share

- 2025-06: $152.24 per share

- 2025-07: $149.22 per share

- 2025-08: $155.53 per share

- 2025-09: $155.18 per share

- 2025-10: $166.50 per share

- 2025-11: $172.05 per share

- 2025-12: $160.10 per share

- 2026-01: $153.16 per share

- 2026-02: $165.32 per share

- 2026-03: $145.23 per share

- 2026-04: $146.52 per share

- 2026-05: $153.13 per share

- 2026-06: $161.91 per share

- 2026-07: $176.28 per share

- 2026-08: $171.83 per share

- 2026-09: $164.15 per share

- 2026-10: $162.77 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $75.06 per share, central $85.17 per share, high $98.63 per share

- FY2017: low $82.98 per share, central $93.92 per share, high $108.49 per share

- FY2018: low $97.04 per share, central $124.85 per share, high $145.46 per share

- FY2019: low $96.01 per share, central $122.65 per share, high $143.00 per share

- FY2020: low $102.94 per share, central $130.50 per share, high $151.55 per share

- FY2021: low $111.55 per share, central $141.93 per share, high $165.01 per share

- FY2022: low $118.48 per share, central $134.04 per share, high $154.74 per share

- FY2023: low $119.65 per share, central $134.87 per share, high $155.13 per share

- FY2024: low $96.52 per share, central $108.02 per share, high $123.33 per share

- FY2025: low $96.27 per share, central $108.16 per share, high $123.98 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/66740/000006674026000014/mmm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.