# Altria Group (MO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:19.430Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $73.84 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.86 per share, central $36.25 per share, high $42.10 per share. Buy at or below the central value $36.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:19.430Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.49×

- FY2018: 0.36×

- FY2019: 0.41×

- FY2020: 0.42×

- FY2021: 0.44×

- FY2022: 0.47×

- FY2023: 0.50×

- FY2024: 0.55×

- FY2025: 0.60×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.58×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 56.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -12.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 57.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 69.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 42.1%

- FY2018: 20.0%

- FY2019: 24.9%

- FY2020: 31.9%

- FY2021: 44.9%

- FY2022: 68.9%

- FY2023: 75.0%

- FY2024: 73.5%

- FY2025: 74.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 68.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $32B

- Net income, five-year total: $35B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 209.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.61×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.0% vs 74.6%

- Per-share earnings: 5.32 to 4.58 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Market cap gain: -$35B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.9%

- Per-share value change: -$0.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.58

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $3.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $69B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 34.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 74.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $7.29

- FY2017: $5.32

- FY2018: $3.69

- FY2019: -$0.69

- FY2020: $2.40

- FY2021: $1.34

- FY2022: $3.20

- FY2023: $4.58

- FY2024: $6.56

- FY2025: $4.13

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.7%

- FY2017: 12.3%

- FY2018: -2.6%

- FY2019: -18.5%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -15.0%

- FY2022: -6.7%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: 7.1%

- FY2025: -6.7%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.8% a year for ten years · "Behind Altria's Profit Resilience: The Power of Pricing Strategy" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.250Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Altria Stock at 6-Year High After Outlook Lift ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/38bff3cd-863a-3f8e-a902-d0170570c6c4/altria-stock-at-6-year-high.html))

- 2025-10-30: Altria (NYSE:MO) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q3 Earnings, Stock Drops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altria-nyse-mo-reports-sales-124604644.html))

- 2026-01-29: Altria earnings fall short amid lower cigarette sales and competition for nicotine products ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altria-earnings-fall-short-amid-160403158.html))

- 2026-02-19: Altria Pulls NJOY ACE As Smoke Free Investment Focus Shifts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altria-pulls-njoy-ace-smoke-061313865.html))

- 2026-04-30: Altria Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise 3.2% Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/altria-q1-earnings-beat-estimates-163600573.html))

- 2026-07-30: Altria Reports 2026 Second-Quarter and First-Half Results; Narrows 2026 Full-Year Earnings Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/altria-reports-2026-second-quarter-110000218.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $19B 

- FY2018: $25B 

- FY2019: $25B 

- FY2020: $26B 

- FY2021: $26B 

- FY2022: $25B 

- FY2023: $24B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $20B 

- FY2026: $21B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 69.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 61.3% 

- FY2018: 48.3% 

- FY2019: 50.6% 

- FY2020: 49.8% 

- FY2021: 53.8% 

- FY2022: 56.8% 

- FY2023: 58.3% 

- FY2024: 70.3% 

- FY2025: 72.2% 

- FY2026: 69.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in tobacco; annual sales are USD 20.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 20139000000; grossProfit 14542000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MO.US: Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 58.3% to 72.2% during 2023–25; it earns 56.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 58.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 70.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.4207652679318392],[2018,0.19993052386350613],[2019,0.2488654060066741],[2020,0.31852577970073914],[2021,0.4494825626607645],[2022,0.6887226357498384],[2023,0.7501723191915937],[2024,0.7348332529043349],[2025,0.7458579140238664],[2026,0.6846678869420723]]; median 0.5670752248014184. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 189000000; owner earnings 14254000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 199000000; owner earnings 10232000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 11000000; upkeep 227000000; owner earnings 6963000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001579778830963665.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 231000000; owner earnings 4493000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 169000000; owner earnings 2550000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 205000000; owner earnings 5785000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 196000000; owner earnings 4990000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 142000000; owner earnings 11408000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 216000000; owner earnings 6997000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,4512000000],[2017,4807000000],[2018,5415000000],[2019,6069000000],[2020,6290000000],[2021,6446000000],[2022,6599000000],[2023,6779000000],[2024,6845000000],[2025,6960000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.117 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Significant federal, state and local governmental actions" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Significant federal, state and local governmental actions

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12859371447684775. Price 73.84; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.6767109295199183 → FY2025 4.157456922162805. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $66.12 per share

- 2016-11: $63.93 per share

- 2016-12: $67.62 per share

- 2017-01: $71.18 per share

- 2017-02: $74.92 per share

- 2017-03: $71.42 per share

- 2017-04: $71.78 per share

- 2017-05: $75.44 per share

- 2017-06: $74.47 per share

- 2017-07: $64.97 per share

- 2017-08: $63.40 per share

- 2017-09: $63.42 per share

- 2017-10: $64.22 per share

- 2017-11: $67.83 per share

- 2017-12: $71.41 per share

- 2018-01: $70.34 per share

- 2018-02: $62.95 per share

- 2018-03: $62.32 per share

- 2018-04: $56.11 per share

- 2018-05: $55.74 per share

- 2018-06: $56.79 per share

- 2018-07: $58.68 per share

- 2018-08: $58.52 per share

- 2018-09: $60.31 per share

- 2018-10: $65.04 per share

- 2018-11: $54.83 per share

- 2018-12: $49.39 per share

- 2019-01: $49.35 per share

- 2019-02: $52.41 per share

- 2019-03: $57.43 per share

- 2019-04: $54.33 per share

- 2019-05: $49.06 per share

- 2019-06: $47.35 per share

- 2019-07: $47.07 per share

- 2019-08: $43.74 per share

- 2019-09: $40.90 per share

- 2019-10: $44.79 per share

- 2019-11: $49.70 per share

- 2019-12: $49.91 per share

- 2020-01: $47.53 per share

- 2020-02: $40.37 per share

- 2020-03: $38.67 per share

- 2020-04: $39.25 per share

- 2020-05: $39.05 per share

- 2020-06: $39.25 per share

- 2020-07: $41.15 per share

- 2020-08: $43.74 per share

- 2020-09: $38.64 per share

- 2020-10: $36.08 per share

- 2020-11: $39.83 per share

- 2020-12: $41.00 per share

- 2021-01: $41.08 per share

- 2021-02: $43.60 per share

- 2021-03: $51.16 per share

- 2021-04: $47.75 per share

- 2021-05: $49.22 per share

- 2021-06: $47.68 per share

- 2021-07: $48.04 per share

- 2021-08: $50.23 per share

- 2021-09: $45.52 per share

- 2021-10: $44.11 per share

- 2021-11: $42.64 per share

- 2021-12: $47.39 per share

- 2022-01: $50.88 per share

- 2022-02: $51.29 per share

- 2022-03: $52.25 per share

- 2022-04: $55.57 per share

- 2022-05: $54.09 per share

- 2022-06: $41.77 per share

- 2022-07: $43.86 per share

- 2022-08: $45.12 per share

- 2022-09: $40.38 per share

- 2022-10: $46.27 per share

- 2022-11: $46.58 per share

- 2022-12: $45.71 per share

- 2023-01: $45.04 per share

- 2023-02: $46.43 per share

- 2023-03: $44.62 per share

- 2023-04: $47.51 per share

- 2023-05: $44.42 per share

- 2023-06: $45.30 per share

- 2023-07: $45.42 per share

- 2023-08: $44.22 per share

- 2023-09: $42.05 per share

- 2023-10: $40.17 per share

- 2023-11: $42.04 per share

- 2023-12: $40.34 per share

- 2024-01: $40.12 per share

- 2024-02: $40.91 per share

- 2024-03: $43.62 per share

- 2024-04: $43.81 per share

- 2024-05: $46.25 per share

- 2024-06: $45.55 per share

- 2024-07: $49.01 per share

- 2024-08: $53.77 per share

- 2024-09: $51.04 per share

- 2024-10: $54.46 per share

- 2024-11: $57.74 per share

- 2024-12: $52.29 per share

- 2025-01: $52.23 per share

- 2025-02: $55.85 per share

- 2025-03: $60.02 per share

- 2025-04: $59.15 per share

- 2025-05: $60.61 per share

- 2025-06: $58.63 per share

- 2025-07: $61.94 per share

- 2025-08: $67.21 per share

- 2025-09: $66.06 per share

- 2025-10: $56.38 per share

- 2025-11: $59.01 per share

- 2025-12: $57.66 per share

- 2026-01: $61.99 per share

- 2026-02: $69.04 per share

- 2026-03: $65.99 per share

- 2026-04: $72.65 per share

- 2026-05: $69.58 per share

- 2026-06: $71.95 per share

- 2026-07: $68.33 per share

- 2026-08: $68.48 per share

- 2026-09: $67.34 per share

- 2026-10: $71.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $32.24 per share, central $36.39 per share, high $41.92 per share

- FY2017: low $31.62 per share, central $35.98 per share, high $41.78 per share

- FY2018: low $45.96 per share, central $57.70 per share, high $67.35 per share

- FY2019: low $46.78 per share, central $61.39 per share, high $71.82 per share

- FY2020: low $42.21 per share, central $48.03 per share, high $55.78 per share

- FY2021: low $26.48 per share, central $30.13 per share, high $34.98 per share

- FY2022: low $26.12 per share, central $29.72 per share, high $34.52 per share

- FY2023: low $25.87 per share, central $29.44 per share, high $34.19 per share

- FY2024: low $26.51 per share, central $30.17 per share, high $35.03 per share

- FY2025: low $30.15 per share, central $34.31 per share, high $39.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:03.429Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764180/000076418026000017/mo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.