# Modine Manufacturing (MOD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MOD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:19.816Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $154.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $49.39 per share, central $64.37 per share, high $75.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $64.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:19.816Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.80×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: -0.05×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 7.9%

- FY2019: 14.2%

- FY2020: 2.9%

- FY2021: -13.4%

- FY2022: 14.3%

- FY2023: 18.4%

- FY2024: 17.8%

- FY2025: 18.2%

- FY2026: 16.4%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 18.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $711M

- Net income, five-year total: $706M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 30.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.17×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.9% vs 17.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.29 to 3.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $592M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 33.8%

- Per-share value change: $2.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.29

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.21

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $736M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $614M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.29

- FY2018: $0.44

- FY2019: $1.65

- FY2020: -$0.04

- FY2021: -$4.11

- FY2022: $1.62

- FY2023: $2.90

- FY2024: $3.02

- FY2025: $3.41

- FY2026: $2.26

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.24×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.04×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.41×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: -6.5%

- FY2019: -1.2%

- FY2020: -3.9%

- FY2021: -28.2%

- FY2022: 5.2%

- FY2023: 2.9%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: -1.5%

- FY2026: -4.7%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 45% since May 2026 · "Wall Street Cuts MOD Stock Earnings Outlook: Hold or Sell the Stock?" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.331Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.4% a year for ten years

- 2026-01-31: Modine Reshapes Thermal Focus With Gentherm Deal And Valuation Upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/modine-reshapes-thermal-focus-gentherm-130822668.html))

- 2026-02-17: Modine Reinvents Itself Around Climate Solutions And AI Data Center Cooling ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/modine-reinvents-itself-around-climate-141003435.html))

- 2026-05-26: Data Center Play Modine Manufacturing Soars On New $4 Billion Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/78bf277f-d160-3d7d-9a0b-bdcc0acad5ff/data-center-play-modine.html))

- 2026-08-03: Wall Street Cuts MOD Stock Earnings Outlook: Hold or Sell the Stock? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-street-cuts-mod-stock-151800123.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2018: $2.1B 

- FY2019: $2.2B 

- FY2020: $2.0B 

- FY2021: $1.8B 

- FY2022: $2.1B 

- FY2023: $2.3B 

- FY2024: $2.4B 

- FY2025: $2.6B 

- FY2026: $3.2B 

- FY2027: $3.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 23%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2017: 17.2% 

- FY2018: 17.0% 

- FY2019: 16.5% 

- FY2020: 15.6% 

- FY2021: 16.2% 

- FY2022: 15.1% 

- FY2023: 16.9% 

- FY2024: 21.9% 

- FY2025: 25.0% 

- FY2026: 23.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 3.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: revenue 3181100000; grossProfit 731100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOD.US: Modine Manufacturing Company designs, engineers, tests, manufactures, and sells mission-critical thermal solutions in the United States, Canada, Italy, Hungary, the United Kingdom, China, and internationally. It offers heat transfer products, including round tube plate fin construction; gas-fired, hydronic, electric, and oil fired unit heaters; roof-mounted direct- and indirect-fired makeup air units, duct furnaces, infrared units, and perimeter heating products; single packaged unit ventilators, modular chillers, air handler and condensing units, and ceiling cassettes; evaporator unit coolers, remote condensers, fluid coolers, gas coolers, and dry and brine coolers; and motor and generator cooling coils, transformer oil coolers, radiators, dryers, and industrial heat exchangers. The company also provides data center products that consists of IT cooling solutions, including chillers, dry coolers, precision air handling units, computer room air conditioning, computer room air handler units, fan walls, rear-door heat exchangers, coolant distribution units, and immersion solutions, as well as sells replacement parts, maintenance service and control solutions for existing equipment and new building management controls and systems. In addition, it offers powertrain cooling products, such as radiators, condensers, engine cooling modules, charge air coolers, fan shrouds, and surge tanks; cooling module generator sets; aluminum and stainless steel engine oil coolers, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, liquid charge air coolers, transmission and retarder oil coolers, chillers, and condensers; battery thermal management systems, electronics cooling packages, battery chillers, battery cooling plates, coolers and casings for electronics cooling, and coolers for electric axles; and coatings products and application services. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.9% to 25% during 2024–26; it earns 14.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.041760532397591386],[2018,0.07923056583818086],[2019,0.14184122058443238],[2020,0.029160748106060605],[2021,-0.1341146828844483],[2022,0.14343243646463533],[2023,0.1836610086701673],[2024,0.17833314486034152],[2025,0.18246610675824684],[2026,0.1641788426374304]]; median 0.14263682852453385. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 15% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.16224286662242868],[2022,0.15087068923467148],[2023,0.1694590713259933]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 30.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 5 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2017: growth capex 7100000; upkeep 58300000; cash acquisitions 364200000; owner earnings 14200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 26.14788732394366.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 71000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 27900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 73900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 87800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 71300000; owner earnings 3600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 40300000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 99700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 50700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 156900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: growth capex 18686993.78605099; upkeep 69013006.21394901; cash acquisitions 186200000; owner earnings 148586993.78605098. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.378902611631445.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: growth capex 6300000; upkeep 77700000; cash acquisitions 3400000; owner earnings 184000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05271739130434783.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: growth capex 63600000; upkeep 79700000; cash acquisitions 182400000; owner earnings 121800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.019704433497537.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Incremental return on capital 0.30866155733558354, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,900000],[2019,1800000],[2020,1300000],[2021,0],[2022,900000],[2023,600000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: cash repurchases 7000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.944 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21023274478893927. Price 154.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -1.1479915433403804 → FY2026 2.2639405204460967. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.95 per share

- 2016-11: $11.75 per share

- 2016-12: $14.90 per share

- 2017-01: $13.60 per share

- 2017-02: $11.35 per share

- 2017-03: $12.20 per share

- 2017-04: $12.10 per share

- 2017-05: $15.20 per share

- 2017-06: $16.55 per share

- 2017-07: $16.25 per share

- 2017-08: $16.15 per share

- 2017-09: $19.25 per share

- 2017-10: $21.05 per share

- 2017-11: $22.90 per share

- 2017-12: $20.20 per share

- 2018-01: $23.35 per share

- 2018-02: $23.00 per share

- 2018-03: $21.15 per share

- 2018-04: $17.20 per share

- 2018-05: $18.00 per share

- 2018-06: $18.25 per share

- 2018-07: $17.45 per share

- 2018-08: $16.85 per share

- 2018-09: $14.90 per share

- 2018-10: $13.01 per share

- 2018-11: $13.05 per share

- 2018-12: $10.81 per share

- 2019-01: $14.63 per share

- 2019-02: $15.03 per share

- 2019-03: $13.87 per share

- 2019-04: $14.79 per share

- 2019-05: $12.85 per share

- 2019-06: $14.31 per share

- 2019-07: $13.72 per share

- 2019-08: $10.21 per share

- 2019-09: $11.37 per share

- 2019-10: $11.43 per share

- 2019-11: $7.42 per share

- 2019-12: $7.70 per share

- 2020-01: $7.03 per share

- 2020-02: $7.46 per share

- 2020-03: $3.25 per share

- 2020-04: $4.63 per share

- 2020-05: $5.35 per share

- 2020-06: $5.52 per share

- 2020-07: $5.44 per share

- 2020-08: $6.77 per share

- 2020-09: $6.25 per share

- 2020-10: $6.40 per share

- 2020-11: $10.92 per share

- 2020-12: $12.56 per share

- 2021-01: $12.55 per share

- 2021-02: $13.87 per share

- 2021-03: $14.77 per share

- 2021-04: $16.28 per share

- 2021-05: $17.59 per share

- 2021-06: $16.59 per share

- 2021-07: $16.73 per share

- 2021-08: $12.44 per share

- 2021-09: $11.33 per share

- 2021-10: $11.00 per share

- 2021-11: $10.36 per share

- 2021-12: $10.09 per share

- 2022-01: $9.15 per share

- 2022-02: $10.10 per share

- 2022-03: $9.01 per share

- 2022-04: $7.90 per share

- 2022-05: $11.82 per share

- 2022-06: $10.53 per share

- 2022-07: $13.12 per share

- 2022-08: $14.98 per share

- 2022-09: $12.94 per share

- 2022-10: $17.92 per share

- 2022-11: $21.17 per share

- 2022-12: $19.86 per share

- 2023-01: $23.89 per share

- 2023-02: $24.41 per share

- 2023-03: $23.05 per share

- 2023-04: $20.91 per share

- 2023-05: $27.29 per share

- 2023-06: $33.02 per share

- 2023-07: $37.56 per share

- 2023-08: $47.59 per share

- 2023-09: $45.75 per share

- 2023-10: $39.50 per share

- 2023-11: $49.20 per share

- 2023-12: $59.70 per share

- 2024-01: $69.09 per share

- 2024-02: $89.71 per share

- 2024-03: $95.19 per share

- 2024-04: $92.63 per share

- 2024-05: $100.92 per share

- 2024-06: $100.19 per share

- 2024-07: $117.66 per share

- 2024-08: $121.55 per share

- 2024-09: $132.79 per share

- 2024-10: $117.77 per share

- 2024-11: $135.79 per share

- 2024-12: $115.93 per share

- 2025-01: $101.45 per share

- 2025-02: $84.56 per share

- 2025-03: $76.75 per share

- 2025-04: $81.64 per share

- 2025-05: $90.80 per share

- 2025-06: $98.50 per share

- 2025-07: $134.56 per share

- 2025-08: $136.13 per share

- 2025-09: $142.16 per share

- 2025-10: $153.21 per share

- 2025-11: $162.13 per share

- 2025-12: $133.51 per share

- 2026-01: $184.66 per share

- 2026-02: $227.25 per share

- 2026-03: $216.71 per share

- 2026-04: $254.63 per share

- 2026-05: $278.91 per share

- 2026-06: $267.02 per share

- 2026-07: $201.06 per share

- 2026-08: $178.43 per share

- 2026-09: $187.20 per share

- 2026-10: $154.01 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $0.81 per share, central $0.91 per share, high $1.05 per share

- FY2018: low $4.27 per share, central $4.86 per share, high $5.64 per share

- FY2019: low $4.72 per share, central $5.70 per share, high $6.65 per share

- FY2020: low $4.95 per share, central $5.95 per share, high $6.84 per share

- FY2021: low $3.67 per share, central $4.17 per share, high $4.84 per share

- FY2022: low $5.81 per share, central $6.59 per share, high $7.63 per share

- FY2023: low $20.77 per share, central $25.42 per share, high $29.57 per share

- FY2024: low $24.25 per share, central $27.64 per share, high $32.07 per share

- FY2025: low $34.97 per share, central $42.65 per share, high $49.66 per share

- FY2026: low $45.69 per share, central $59.64 per share, high $69.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:03.783Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/67347/000110465926066795/mod-20260331x10k.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.