# Molina Healthcare (MOH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MOH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:20.118Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $212.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $296.08 per share, central $392.83 per share, high $459.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value $392.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:20.118Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.7% at the stated quote. About 15.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.79×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.03×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.02×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.00×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 9

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 69.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -12.5%

- FY2018: 25.8%

- FY2019: 23.0%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 15.2%

- FY2022: 19.1%

- FY2023: 17.8%

- FY2024: 16.6%

- FY2025: 7.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 2.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.08×

- FY2022: 1.11×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.20×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.0% vs 16.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.14 to 18.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Market cap gain: $5.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 84.1%

- Per-share value change: $18.64

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $18.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 4.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.14

- FY2017: -$9.08

- FY2018: $10.62

- FY2019: $11.48

- FY2020: $11.24

- FY2021: $11.25

- FY2022: $13.54

- FY2023: $18.78

- FY2024: $20.43

- FY2025: $8.92

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -1.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.54×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.9%

- FY2017: -15.5%

- FY2018: 14.3%

- FY2019: 4.6%

- FY2020: -12.8%

- FY2021: -12.0%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 6.5%

## Holders

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since Mar 2024 · "Molina Healthcare (MOH) Plans Big 2027 ACA Pullback After Profit Pressure" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.417Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-07: Molina Healthcare Lowers Full-Year Earnings Outlook Amid Medical Cost Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/molina-healthcare-lowers-full-earnings-145211577.html))

- 2025-08-19: Earnings call transcript: Molina Healthcare Q2 2025 misses EPS forecast, stock drops ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-molina-healthcare-q2-2025-misses-eps-forecast-stock-drops-93CH-4198969))

- 2025-10-23: Molina Healthcare stock falls as medical costs spike, Obamacare worries mount ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/molina-healthcare-stock-falls-as-medical-costs-spike-obamacare-worries-mount-171521043.html))

- 2026-04-23: MOH Q1 EPS Tops Estimates on Lower Medical Costs, Membership Declines ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/moh-q1-eps-tops-estimates-185600817.html))

- 2026-06-11: Molina Healthcare Wins Illinois Medicaid Managed Care Contract ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/molina-healthcare-wins-illinois-medicaid-managed-care-contract))

- 2026-07-25: Molina Healthcare (MOH) Plans Big 2027 ACA Pullback After Profit Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/molina-healthcare-moh-plans-big-100648479.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: $20B 

- FY2018: $19B 

- FY2019: $17B 

- FY2020: $19B 

- FY2021: $28B 

- FY2022: $32B 

- FY2023: $34B 

- FY2024: $41B 

- FY2025: $45B 

- FY2026: $45B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: 9.5% 

- FY2018: 13.9% 

- FY2019: 14.5% 

- FY2020: 13.8% 

- FY2021: 11.8% 

- FY2022: 12.3% 

- FY2023: 12.7% 

- FY2024: 11.7% 

- FY2025: 9.0% 

- FY2026: 8.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in healthcare plans; annual sales are USD 45.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: revenue 45426000000; grossProfit 4075000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOH.US: Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates through Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other segments. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9% to 12.7% during 2023–25; it earns 17.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.12505704506560184],[2018,0.25778338725198624],[2019,0.22971346273725846],[2020,3.812810729564111],[2021,0.15190937597107262],[2022,0.19068373702132585],[2023,0.1776104280510018],[2024,0.16634530839236059],[2025,0.07804723543892254],[2026,0.01974027572624323]]; median 0.1719778682216812. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 12% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.11810881855172663],[2022,0.12278726465253018],[2023,0.12720122094388353]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 43.3% of cash earnings; earns 24.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 176000000; cash acquisitions 48000000; owner earnings 14000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.4285714285714284.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 30000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 804000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 57000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 769000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 74000000; cash acquisitions 755000000; owner earnings 687000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.098981077147016.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 77000000; cash acquisitions 129000000; owner earnings 713000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18092566619915848.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 91000000; cash acquisitions 134000000; owner earnings 877000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15279361459521096.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 84000000; cash acquisitions 3000000; owner earnings 1178000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0025466893039049238.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 100000000; cash acquisitions 344000000; owner earnings 1265000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2719367588932806.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 101000000; cash acquisitions 245000000; owner earnings 566000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.43286219081272087.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Incremental return on capital 0.24227235015192225, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.422 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 15.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05570102097579094. Price 212.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.5535714285714284 → FY2025 10.699432892249527. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $54.41 per share

- 2016-11: $52.86 per share

- 2016-12: $54.26 per share

- 2017-01: $56.72 per share

- 2017-02: $48.51 per share

- 2017-03: $45.60 per share

- 2017-04: $49.79 per share

- 2017-05: $64.57 per share

- 2017-06: $69.18 per share

- 2017-07: $66.80 per share

- 2017-08: $64.00 per share

- 2017-09: $68.76 per share

- 2017-10: $67.83 per share

- 2017-11: $78.24 per share

- 2017-12: $76.68 per share

- 2018-01: $91.36 per share

- 2018-02: $72.30 per share

- 2018-03: $81.18 per share

- 2018-04: $83.25 per share

- 2018-05: $84.93 per share

- 2018-06: $97.94 per share

- 2018-07: $104.09 per share

- 2018-08: $138.00 per share

- 2018-09: $148.70 per share

- 2018-10: $126.77 per share

- 2018-11: $139.71 per share

- 2018-12: $116.22 per share

- 2019-01: $132.98 per share

- 2019-02: $134.63 per share

- 2019-03: $141.96 per share

- 2019-04: $129.63 per share

- 2019-05: $142.26 per share

- 2019-06: $143.14 per share

- 2019-07: $132.78 per share

- 2019-08: $130.28 per share

- 2019-09: $109.72 per share

- 2019-10: $117.64 per share

- 2019-11: $135.50 per share

- 2019-12: $135.69 per share

- 2020-01: $122.97 per share

- 2020-02: $122.55 per share

- 2020-03: $139.71 per share

- 2020-04: $163.97 per share

- 2020-05: $185.82 per share

- 2020-06: $177.98 per share

- 2020-07: $184.70 per share

- 2020-08: $184.97 per share

- 2020-09: $183.04 per share

- 2020-10: $186.47 per share

- 2020-11: $204.13 per share

- 2020-12: $212.68 per share

- 2021-01: $213.61 per share

- 2021-02: $216.76 per share

- 2021-03: $233.76 per share

- 2021-04: $255.10 per share

- 2021-05: $251.36 per share

- 2021-06: $253.06 per share

- 2021-07: $273.01 per share

- 2021-08: $268.77 per share

- 2021-09: $271.31 per share

- 2021-10: $295.72 per share

- 2021-11: $285.18 per share

- 2021-12: $318.08 per share

- 2022-01: $290.48 per share

- 2022-02: $306.87 per share

- 2022-03: $333.59 per share

- 2022-04: $313.45 per share

- 2022-05: $290.22 per share

- 2022-06: $279.61 per share

- 2022-07: $327.72 per share

- 2022-08: $337.37 per share

- 2022-09: $329.84 per share

- 2022-10: $358.86 per share

- 2022-11: $336.77 per share

- 2022-12: $330.22 per share

- 2023-01: $311.83 per share

- 2023-02: $275.33 per share

- 2023-03: $267.49 per share

- 2023-04: $297.89 per share

- 2023-05: $273.90 per share

- 2023-06: $301.24 per share

- 2023-07: $304.49 per share

- 2023-08: $310.12 per share

- 2023-09: $327.89 per share

- 2023-10: $332.95 per share

- 2023-11: $365.56 per share

- 2023-12: $361.31 per share

- 2024-01: $356.44 per share

- 2024-02: $393.91 per share

- 2024-03: $410.83 per share

- 2024-04: $342.10 per share

- 2024-05: $314.58 per share

- 2024-06: $297.30 per share

- 2024-07: $341.27 per share

- 2024-08: $349.79 per share

- 2024-09: $344.56 per share

- 2024-10: $321.22 per share

- 2024-11: $297.90 per share

- 2024-12: $291.05 per share

- 2025-01: $310.41 per share

- 2025-02: $301.12 per share

- 2025-03: $329.39 per share

- 2025-04: $327.01 per share

- 2025-05: $305.04 per share

- 2025-06: $297.90 per share

- 2025-07: $157.87 per share

- 2025-08: $180.83 per share

- 2025-09: $191.36 per share

- 2025-10: $153.06 per share

- 2025-11: $148.26 per share

- 2025-12: $173.54 per share

- 2026-01: $179.59 per share

- 2026-02: $154.05 per share

- 2026-03: $133.30 per share

- 2026-04: $194.62 per share

- 2026-05: $173.60 per share

- 2026-06: $228.70 per share

- 2026-07: $195.62 per share

- 2026-08: $198.77 per share

- 2026-09: $189.10 per share

- 2026-10: $212.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $27.67 per share, central $31.49 per share, high $36.56 per share

- FY2017: low $30.95 per share, central $35.22 per share, high $40.90 per share

- FY2018: low $32.59 per share, central $46.55 per share, high $54.68 per share

- FY2019: low $29.12 per share, central $33.13 per share, high $38.47 per share

- FY2020: low $125.36 per share, central $142.64 per share, high $165.65 per share

- FY2021: low $183.22 per share, central $208.48 per share, high $242.11 per share

- FY2022: low $262.82 per share, central $375.45 per share, high $441.03 per share

- FY2023: low $275.64 per share, central $393.76 per share, high $462.55 per share

- FY2024: low $298.05 per share, central $425.78 per share, high $500.15 per share

- FY2025: low $298.10 per share, central $395.50 per share, high $462.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000117992926000005/moh-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.