# Hello Group (MOMO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MOMO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:20.262Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $4.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- Recent gross margin fell 6.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 40.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 37.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 40.9%

- FY2021: 23.2%

- FY2022: 40.3%

- FY2023: 24.2%

- FY2024: 10.2%

- FY2025: 51.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.61×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 129.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.94×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.51×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 429.2% vs 24.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.41 to 2.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.6%

- Market cap gain: CNY -35B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 6.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.8%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.38

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 2.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.14

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 4.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 13B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 2.41

- FY2017: CNY 5.17

- FY2018: CNY 6.50

- FY2019: CNY 6.58

- FY2020: CNY 4.65

- FY2021: CNY -7.20

- FY2022: CNY 3.50

- FY2023: CNY 4.87

- FY2024: CNY 2.78

- FY2025: CNY 2.37

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.29×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.43×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.0%

- FY2017: -7.6%

- FY2018: -2.7%

- FY2019: -11.0%

- FY2020: -4.2%

- FY2021: -24.7%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 62% since Oct 2021 · "Hello Group projects Q3 revenue of RMB 2.4B–2.5B as domestic decline remains high teens" (seekingalpha.com, Sep 2026) · sales -1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.511Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-05: Hello Group anticipates overseas revenue growth beyond 80% in Q2 2025 as portfolio expands ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4455943-hello-group-anticipates-overseas-revenue-growth-beyond-80-percent-in-q2-2025-as-portfolio?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-09-09: Hello Group Inc (NASDAQ:MOMO) Plunges After Q2 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss Estimates ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/MOMO/Chartmill-34148-Hello-Group-Inc-NASDAQMOMO-Plunges-After-Q2-2025-Earnings-and-Revenue-Miss-Estimates))

- 2026-09-03: Hello Group projects Q3 revenue of RMB 2.4B–2.5B as domestic decline remains high teens ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4640072-hello-group-projects-q3-revenue-of-rmb-2_4b-2_5b-as-domestic-decline-remains-high-teens?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2016: CNY 3.7B 

- FY2017: CNY 8.9B 

- FY2018: CNY 13B 

- FY2019: CNY 17B 

- FY2020: CNY 15B 

- FY2021: CNY 15B 

- FY2022: CNY 13B 

- FY2023: CNY 12B 

- FY2024: CNY 11B 

- FY2025: CNY 10B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2016: 56.3% 

- FY2017: 50.8% 

- FY2018: 46.4% 

- FY2019: 50.1% 

- FY2020: 46.9% 

- FY2021: 42.5% 

- FY2022: 41.6% 

- FY2023: 41.5% 

- FY2024: 39.0% 

- FY2025: 37.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet content & information; annual sales are CNY 10.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: revenue 10367096000; grossProfit 3920477000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); MOMO.US: Hello Group Inc. provides mobile-based social and entertainment services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Momo, Tantan, and QOOL. It offers Momo, a mobile application that connects people and facilitates social interactions based on location, interests, and various online recreational activities, including live talent shows, short videos, as well as other video- and audio-based interactive experiences, such as online parties, mobile karaoke, and user participated reality shows; Tantan, a social and social and dating application; and other applications under the Hertz, Soulchill, Happn, and Duidui names. The company also provides live video services for various content and activities comprising talent shows, short videos as well as other video- and audio-based interactive experiences, such as online parties, mobile karaoke and user participated reality shows; broadcasters and viewers; value-added services; advertising and marketing solutions; and mobile games. The company was formerly known as Momo Inc. and changed its name to Hello Group Inc. in August 2021. Hello Group Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.8% to 41.5% during 2023–25; it earns 40.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 41.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,4.292285280478863],[2017,3.4029261391816896],[2018,4.775648000571651],[2019,0.14511333467185558],[2020,0.40929012886359745],[2021,0.2316026846888238],[2022,0.40299106973678783],[2023,0.24202949832251847],[2024,0.10240832645163704],[2025,0.5095365047721016]]; median 0.40614059930019264. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 42% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.42483585200839835],[2022,0.4158282019481474],[2023,0.41466381133052327]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns over 100% on new investment; paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 48787138.8; owner earnings 986026861.2. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2017: growth capex 146839457.83; upkeep 83669000; owner earnings 2148098000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06835789513793133.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2018: growth capex 1575000; upkeep 241268000; cash acquisitions 3318841000; owner earnings 2815775000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1792192202857117.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 186522000; owner earnings 3140559000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 124143000; owner earnings 2345589000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 80445000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1515969000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 576310000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1460879000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 285541000; cash acquisitions 136642000; owner earnings 812765000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16811993626694063.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 479098478; cash acquisitions 633877000; owner earnings 406729522. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5584730532542952.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Incremental return on capital 1.2993837770054066, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,9887000],[2018,9887000],[2019,877346000],[2020,1123983000],[2021,852743000],[2022,840997000],[2023,958052000],[2024,716302000],[2025,336750323]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: cash repurchases 749219917 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); MOMO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.525 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price is 1 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Closing price 4.77 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 0.14944; FY2025 annual sales per share 30.617795140518623; price multiple 1.0425037053039186. FY2025 cash earnings/share 1.2012198191467565. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $24.08 per share

- 2016-11: $21.53 per share

- 2016-12: $18.38 per share

- 2017-01: $22.73 per share

- 2017-02: $26.64 per share

- 2017-03: $34.07 per share

- 2017-04: $37.98 per share

- 2017-05: $38.04 per share

- 2017-06: $36.96 per share

- 2017-07: $43.93 per share

- 2017-08: $38.53 per share

- 2017-09: $31.34 per share

- 2017-10: $30.47 per share

- 2017-11: $24.00 per share

- 2017-12: $24.48 per share

- 2018-01: $31.53 per share

- 2018-02: $33.05 per share

- 2018-03: $37.38 per share

- 2018-04: $34.90 per share

- 2018-05: $45.92 per share

- 2018-06: $43.50 per share

- 2018-07: $41.02 per share

- 2018-08: $46.29 per share

- 2018-09: $43.80 per share

- 2018-10: $33.57 per share

- 2018-11: $31.35 per share

- 2018-12: $23.75 per share

- 2019-01: $30.43 per share

- 2019-02: $33.17 per share

- 2019-03: $38.24 per share

- 2019-04: $35.07 per share

- 2019-05: $27.57 per share

- 2019-06: $35.80 per share

- 2019-07: $33.97 per share

- 2019-08: $36.78 per share

- 2019-09: $30.98 per share

- 2019-10: $33.52 per share

- 2019-11: $37.43 per share

- 2019-12: $33.50 per share

- 2020-01: $30.60 per share

- 2020-02: $28.12 per share

- 2020-03: $21.69 per share

- 2020-04: $24.08 per share

- 2020-05: $19.40 per share

- 2020-06: $17.48 per share

- 2020-07: $18.47 per share

- 2020-08: $20.40 per share

- 2020-09: $13.76 per share

- 2020-10: $15.00 per share

- 2020-11: $14.38 per share

- 2020-12: $13.96 per share

- 2021-01: $15.28 per share

- 2021-02: $15.84 per share

- 2021-03: $14.74 per share

- 2021-04: $14.66 per share

- 2021-05: $14.03 per share

- 2021-06: $15.31 per share

- 2021-07: $12.39 per share

- 2021-08: $13.14 per share

- 2021-09: $10.58 per share

- 2021-10: $12.45 per share

- 2021-11: $11.57 per share

- 2021-12: $8.98 per share

- 2022-01: $9.73 per share

- 2022-02: $9.53 per share

- 2022-03: $5.78 per share

- 2022-04: $5.32 per share

- 2022-05: $6.08 per share

- 2022-06: $5.05 per share

- 2022-07: $4.48 per share

- 2022-08: $5.15 per share

- 2022-09: $4.62 per share

- 2022-10: $4.70 per share

- 2022-11: $5.74 per share

- 2022-12: $8.98 per share

- 2023-01: $10.25 per share

- 2023-02: $8.81 per share

- 2023-03: $9.10 per share

- 2023-04: $8.36 per share

- 2023-05: $8.07 per share

- 2023-06: $9.61 per share

- 2023-07: $10.65 per share

- 2023-08: $8.63 per share

- 2023-09: $6.98 per share

- 2023-10: $7.08 per share

- 2023-11: $6.46 per share

- 2023-12: $6.95 per share

- 2024-01: $5.87 per share

- 2024-02: $6.59 per share

- 2024-03: $6.21 per share

- 2024-04: $5.83 per share

- 2024-05: $5.64 per share

- 2024-06: $6.12 per share

- 2024-07: $6.75 per share

- 2024-08: $6.64 per share

- 2024-09: $7.61 per share

- 2024-10: $7.07 per share

- 2024-11: $6.73 per share

- 2024-12: $7.71 per share

- 2025-01: $7.19 per share

- 2025-02: $7.37 per share

- 2025-03: $6.31 per share

- 2025-04: $5.71 per share

- 2025-05: $6.07 per share

- 2025-06: $8.44 per share

- 2025-07: $8.23 per share

- 2025-08: $8.30 per share

- 2025-09: $7.42 per share

- 2025-10: $6.79 per share

- 2025-11: $6.96 per share

- 2025-12: $6.55 per share

- 2026-01: $6.82 per share

- 2026-02: $6.47 per share

- 2026-03: $5.76 per share

- 2026-04: $6.24 per share

- 2026-05: $5.96 per share

- 2026-06: $5.80 per share

- 2026-07: $5.99 per share

- 2026-08: $5.54 per share

- 2026-09: $4.84 per share

- 2026-10: $4.77 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1610601/000119312526183444/d13143d20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.