# Mosaic (MOS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MOS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:20.991Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $18.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $21.74 per share, central $24.71 per share, high $28.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value $24.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:20.991Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.2% at the stated quote. About 12.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: -0.12×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.9%

- FY2017: 2.8%

- FY2018: 6.4%

- FY2019: -7.0%

- FY2020: 3.3%

- FY2021: 13.8%

- FY2022: 25.5%

- FY2023: 7.9%

- FY2024: 2.8%

- FY2025: 4.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -11.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.62×

- FY2024: -0.29×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.9% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.85 to 1.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Market cap gain: -$2.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.1%

- Per-share value change: $0.85

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.85

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $213M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.85

- FY2017: -$0.31

- FY2018: $1.22

- FY2019: -$2.78

- FY2020: $1.75

- FY2021: $4.27

- FY2022: $10.06

- FY2023: $3.50

- FY2024: $0.55

- FY2025: $1.70

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.53×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.7%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -4.9%

- FY2019: -11.2%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 72% since Mar 2022 · "Mosaic Q2 Swings To Loss On Lower Sales, Higher Costs" (nasdaq.com, Aug 2026) · sales +8.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.617Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-07: Mosaic Company (MOS) Drops 13.3% on Earnings Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mosaic-company-mos-drops-13-160729253.html))

- 2025-10-13: Mosaic's $8 Million Setback: Production Snags and Tariff Pain Hammer Shares ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mosaics-8-million-setback-production-200014657.html))

- 2026-01-19: Morgan Stanley Raises Mosaic (MOS) Target as Potash Outlook Improves for 2026 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-raises-mosaic-mos-044118245.html))

- 2026-03-23: The Mosaic Company (MOS) Traded Down Due to Softer Fertilizer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mosaic-company-mos-traded-down-110623097.html))

- 2026-05-11: Mosaic Posts Loss In Q1; Withdraws Phosphate Production Guidance For 2026 ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mosaic-posts-loss-q1-withdraws-phosphate-production-guidance-2026))

- 2026-08-04: Mosaic Q2 Swings To Loss On Lower Sales, Higher Costs ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mosaic-q2-swings-loss-lower-sales-higher-costs))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $7.2B 

- FY2017: $7.4B 

- FY2018: $9.6B 

- FY2019: $8.9B 

- FY2020: $8.7B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $19B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 11.3% 

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 15.6% 

- FY2019: 10.1% 

- FY2020: 12.3% 

- FY2021: 25.9% 

- FY2022: 30.1% 

- FY2023: 16.1% 

- FY2024: 13.6% 

- FY2025: 15.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in agricultural inputs; annual sales are USD 12.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 12052400000; grossProfit 1816900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOS.US: The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13.6% to 16.1% during 2023–25; it earns 3.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 13.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.028741845965329586],[2017,0.02752339040379702],[2018,0.06446116521762543],[2019,-0.07022065449467847],[2020,0.03280603205123112],[2021,0.13832614671577398],[2022,0.2551200389500552],[2023,0.07888047753937052],[2024,0.02767274271661769],[2025,0.04242477942136581]]; median 0.03761540573629847. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 57.2% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 843100000; owner earnings 165900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 109400000; upkeep 883900000; owner earnings 470000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2327659574468085.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1170600000; owner earnings 343100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 475700000; upkeep 812900000; owner earnings 1630600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29173310437875627.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 313400000; upkeep 933900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3582800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08747348442558893.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1402400000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 723100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 309500000; upkeep 1049900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 540700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5724061401886443.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,385100000],[2017,210600000],[2018,38500000],[2019,67200000],[2020,75800000],[2021,103700000],[2022,197700000],[2023,351600000],[2024,270700000],[2025,280400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MOS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.335 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our underground potash shaft mines are subject to risks of water inflows." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Our underground potash shaft mines are subject to risks of water inflows.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.047466842126346165. Price 18.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.0535664723841243 → FY2025 1.6955158356851678. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $23.53 per share

- 2016-11: $28.40 per share

- 2016-12: $29.33 per share

- 2017-01: $31.37 per share

- 2017-02: $31.19 per share

- 2017-03: $29.18 per share

- 2017-04: $26.93 per share

- 2017-05: $22.63 per share

- 2017-06: $22.83 per share

- 2017-07: $24.14 per share

- 2017-08: $19.98 per share

- 2017-09: $21.59 per share

- 2017-10: $22.34 per share

- 2017-11: $24.29 per share

- 2017-12: $25.66 per share

- 2018-01: $27.30 per share

- 2018-02: $26.32 per share

- 2018-03: $24.28 per share

- 2018-04: $26.95 per share

- 2018-05: $27.49 per share

- 2018-06: $28.05 per share

- 2018-07: $30.11 per share

- 2018-08: $31.27 per share

- 2018-09: $32.48 per share

- 2018-10: $30.94 per share

- 2018-11: $36.00 per share

- 2018-12: $29.21 per share

- 2019-01: $32.28 per share

- 2019-02: $31.27 per share

- 2019-03: $27.31 per share

- 2019-04: $26.11 per share

- 2019-05: $21.47 per share

- 2019-06: $25.03 per share

- 2019-07: $25.19 per share

- 2019-08: $18.39 per share

- 2019-09: $20.50 per share

- 2019-10: $19.88 per share

- 2019-11: $19.05 per share

- 2019-12: $21.64 per share

- 2020-01: $19.84 per share

- 2020-02: $17.03 per share

- 2020-03: $10.82 per share

- 2020-04: $11.51 per share

- 2020-05: $12.09 per share

- 2020-06: $12.51 per share

- 2020-07: $13.47 per share

- 2020-08: $18.23 per share

- 2020-09: $18.27 per share

- 2020-10: $18.50 per share

- 2020-11: $21.96 per share

- 2020-12: $23.01 per share

- 2021-01: $25.96 per share

- 2021-02: $29.40 per share

- 2021-03: $31.61 per share

- 2021-04: $35.18 per share

- 2021-05: $36.14 per share

- 2021-06: $31.91 per share

- 2021-07: $31.23 per share

- 2021-08: $32.18 per share

- 2021-09: $35.72 per share

- 2021-10: $41.57 per share

- 2021-11: $34.22 per share

- 2021-12: $39.29 per share

- 2022-01: $39.95 per share

- 2022-02: $52.43 per share

- 2022-03: $66.50 per share

- 2022-04: $62.42 per share

- 2022-05: $62.65 per share

- 2022-06: $47.23 per share

- 2022-07: $52.66 per share

- 2022-08: $53.87 per share

- 2022-09: $48.33 per share

- 2022-10: $53.75 per share

- 2022-11: $51.30 per share

- 2022-12: $43.87 per share

- 2023-01: $49.54 per share

- 2023-02: $53.19 per share

- 2023-03: $45.88 per share

- 2023-04: $42.85 per share

- 2023-05: $31.96 per share

- 2023-06: $35.00 per share

- 2023-07: $40.76 per share

- 2023-08: $38.85 per share

- 2023-09: $35.60 per share

- 2023-10: $32.48 per share

- 2023-11: $35.89 per share

- 2023-12: $35.73 per share

- 2024-01: $30.71 per share

- 2024-02: $31.16 per share

- 2024-03: $32.46 per share

- 2024-04: $31.39 per share

- 2024-05: $30.93 per share

- 2024-06: $28.90 per share

- 2024-07: $29.77 per share

- 2024-08: $28.57 per share

- 2024-09: $26.78 per share

- 2024-10: $26.76 per share

- 2024-11: $26.46 per share

- 2024-12: $24.58 per share

- 2025-01: $27.89 per share

- 2025-02: $23.92 per share

- 2025-03: $27.01 per share

- 2025-04: $30.40 per share

- 2025-05: $36.14 per share

- 2025-06: $36.48 per share

- 2025-07: $36.01 per share

- 2025-08: $33.40 per share

- 2025-09: $34.68 per share

- 2025-10: $27.45 per share

- 2025-11: $24.49 per share

- 2025-12: $24.09 per share

- 2026-01: $27.50 per share

- 2026-02: $27.84 per share

- 2026-03: $25.50 per share

- 2026-04: $23.27 per share

- 2026-05: $23.90 per share

- 2026-06: $21.19 per share

- 2026-07: $22.12 per share

- 2026-08: $24.12 per share

- 2026-09: $21.65 per share

- 2026-10: $18.95 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.02 per share, central $22.58 per share, high $25.97 per share

- FY2017: low $11.06 per share, central $11.80 per share, high $12.78 per share

- FY2018: low $14.99 per share, central $16.83 per share, high $19.27 per share

- FY2019: low $6.76 per share, central $7.57 per share, high $8.65 per share

- FY2020: low $6.81 per share, central $7.61 per share, high $8.67 per share

- FY2021: low $15.36 per share, central $17.29 per share, high $19.85 per share

- FY2022: low $36.39 per share, central $50.96 per share, high $59.66 per share

- FY2023: low $27.56 per share, central $36.32 per share, high $42.46 per share

- FY2024: low $20.17 per share, central $22.93 per share, high $26.60 per share

- FY2025: low $21.92 per share, central $24.93 per share, high $28.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.