# Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MPC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:21.401Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $476.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $442.16 per share, central $501.60 per share, high $580.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value $501.60 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:21.401Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.4% at the stated quote. About 10.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 2.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: -0.18×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 7.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 19.7%

- FY2018: 8.2%

- FY2019: 7.2%

- FY2020: -20.8%

- FY2021: 11.5%

- FY2022: 41.6%

- FY2023: 29.2%

- FY2024: 12.7%

- FY2025: 12.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 27.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $46B

- Net income, five-year total: $41B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 60.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.20×

- FY2022: 1.05×

- FY2023: 1.15×

- FY2024: 1.16×

- FY2025: 0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.2% vs 12.7%

- Per-share earnings: 5.26 to 13.23 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -14.0%

- Market cap gain: $23B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $30B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -14.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.2%

- Per-share value change: $7.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.26

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.23

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.72

- Average buyback yield: 11.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $17B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $42B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.22

- FY2017: $6.70

- FY2018: $5.29

- FY2019: $3.97

- FY2020: -$15.14

- FY2021: $15.26

- FY2022: $28.13

- FY2023: $23.67

- FY2024: $10.10

- FY2025: $13.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.04×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.70×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.4%

- FY2017: -6.5%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -6.9%

- FY2020: -14.4%

- FY2021: 6.3%

- FY2022: -2.1%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -6.6%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.2% a year for ten years · sales +16%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.745Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Marathon Petroleum Swings to Loss on Lower Refining Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7b25af57-000d-3d8e-b7e7-a62cb6f2e373/marathon-petroleum-swings-to.html))

- 2025-08-05: Higher Refining Margins Help Marathon Petroleum Beat Q2 Profit Estimate ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/higher-refining-margins-help-marathon-153000555.html))

- 2025-11-04: Marathon Petroleum plunges after Q3 earnings miss; sees continued high turnaround costs ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4514858-marathon-petroleum-plunges-after-q3-earnings-miss-sees-continued-high-turnaround-costs?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-11: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Beats Forecasts in Q4 Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marathon-petroleum-mpc-beats-forecasts-191313586.html))

- 2026-08-05: Marathon Petroleum Profit Quadruples on Higher Refining Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/marathon-petroleum-profit-quadruples-higher-043130949.html))

- 2026-09-25: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Could Be 20% Overvalued Following Diesel Export Ban Review ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marathon-petroleum-mpc-could-20-191005280.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +16%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $75B 

- FY2018: $86B 

- FY2019: $111B 

- FY2020: $70B 

- FY2021: $120B 

- FY2022: $177B 

- FY2023: $148B 

- FY2024: $139B 

- FY2025: $133B 

- FY2026: $154B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 11.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: 7.4% 

- FY2018: 8.0% 

- FY2019: 7.8% 

- FY2020: 1.0% 

- FY2021: 5.5% 

- FY2022: 12.7% 

- FY2023: 11.1% 

- FY2024: 6.7% 

- FY2025: 7.5% 

- FY2026: 11.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are USD 132.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 132699000000; grossProfit 10002000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MPC.US: Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.7% to 11.1% during 2023–25; it earns 12.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 6.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 7.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1971347267196546],[2018,0.0823585049025504],[2019,0.07162619361197962],[2020,-0.20751839220985352],[2021,0.11456763499533579],[2022,0.41583510322367606],[2023,0.2918815700345145],[2024,0.1273624776819683],[2025,0.12506120489326347],[2026,0.2726270987091335]]; median 0.12621184128761587. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2892000000; owner earnings 311647155.8120363. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 618000000; upkeep 2114000000; owner earnings 3432000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18006993006993008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 1009000000; upkeep 2170000000; owner earnings 2780000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.36294964028776977.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 1585000000; upkeep 3225000000; owner earnings 2637000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6010618126659082.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1464000000; owner earnings 11638000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2420000000; owner earnings 15238256853.173113. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1890000000; owner earnings 11098000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2533000000; owner earnings 3991631142.687981. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3486000000; owner earnings 3885202619.9387546. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,719000000],[2017,773000000],[2018,954000000],[2019,1398000000],[2020,1510000000],[2021,1484000000],[2022,1279000000],[2023,1261000000],[2024,1154000000],[2025,1140000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 3488000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MPC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.33 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our financial results are affected by volatile refining margins" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Our financial results are affected by volatile refining margins

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.009177526658469333. Price 476.92; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.351968791654444 → FY2025 12.696740588035146. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $43.59 per share

- 2016-11: $47.02 per share

- 2016-12: $50.35 per share

- 2017-01: $48.05 per share

- 2017-02: $49.60 per share

- 2017-03: $50.54 per share

- 2017-04: $50.94 per share

- 2017-05: $52.04 per share

- 2017-06: $52.33 per share

- 2017-07: $55.99 per share

- 2017-08: $52.45 per share

- 2017-09: $56.08 per share

- 2017-10: $59.74 per share

- 2017-11: $62.63 per share

- 2017-12: $65.98 per share

- 2018-01: $69.27 per share

- 2018-02: $64.06 per share

- 2018-03: $73.11 per share

- 2018-04: $74.91 per share

- 2018-05: $79.03 per share

- 2018-06: $70.16 per share

- 2018-07: $80.83 per share

- 2018-08: $82.29 per share

- 2018-09: $79.97 per share

- 2018-10: $70.45 per share

- 2018-11: $65.16 per share

- 2018-12: $59.01 per share

- 2019-01: $66.26 per share

- 2019-02: $62.01 per share

- 2019-03: $59.85 per share

- 2019-04: $60.87 per share

- 2019-05: $45.99 per share

- 2019-06: $55.88 per share

- 2019-07: $56.39 per share

- 2019-08: $49.21 per share

- 2019-09: $60.75 per share

- 2019-10: $63.95 per share

- 2019-11: $60.64 per share

- 2019-12: $60.25 per share

- 2020-01: $54.50 per share

- 2020-02: $47.42 per share

- 2020-03: $23.62 per share

- 2020-04: $32.08 per share

- 2020-05: $35.14 per share

- 2020-06: $37.38 per share

- 2020-07: $38.20 per share

- 2020-08: $35.46 per share

- 2020-09: $29.34 per share

- 2020-10: $29.50 per share

- 2020-11: $38.88 per share

- 2020-12: $41.36 per share

- 2021-01: $43.16 per share

- 2021-02: $54.62 per share

- 2021-03: $53.49 per share

- 2021-04: $55.65 per share

- 2021-05: $61.80 per share

- 2021-06: $60.42 per share

- 2021-07: $55.22 per share

- 2021-08: $59.27 per share

- 2021-09: $61.81 per share

- 2021-10: $65.93 per share

- 2021-11: $60.85 per share

- 2021-12: $63.99 per share

- 2022-01: $71.75 per share

- 2022-02: $77.87 per share

- 2022-03: $85.50 per share

- 2022-04: $87.26 per share

- 2022-05: $101.79 per share

- 2022-06: $82.21 per share

- 2022-07: $91.66 per share

- 2022-08: $100.75 per share

- 2022-09: $99.33 per share

- 2022-10: $113.62 per share

- 2022-11: $121.81 per share

- 2022-12: $116.39 per share

- 2023-01: $128.52 per share

- 2023-02: $123.60 per share

- 2023-03: $134.83 per share

- 2023-04: $122.00 per share

- 2023-05: $104.91 per share

- 2023-06: $116.60 per share

- 2023-07: $133.02 per share

- 2023-08: $142.77 per share

- 2023-09: $151.34 per share

- 2023-10: $151.25 per share

- 2023-11: $149.19 per share

- 2023-12: $148.36 per share

- 2024-01: $165.60 per share

- 2024-02: $169.23 per share

- 2024-03: $201.50 per share

- 2024-04: $181.72 per share

- 2024-05: $176.61 per share

- 2024-06: $173.48 per share

- 2024-07: $177.02 per share

- 2024-08: $177.12 per share

- 2024-09: $162.91 per share

- 2024-10: $145.47 per share

- 2024-11: $156.15 per share

- 2024-12: $139.50 per share

- 2025-01: $145.71 per share

- 2025-02: $150.18 per share

- 2025-03: $145.69 per share

- 2025-04: $137.41 per share

- 2025-05: $160.74 per share

- 2025-06: $166.11 per share

- 2025-07: $170.19 per share

- 2025-08: $179.71 per share

- 2025-09: $192.74 per share

- 2025-10: $194.91 per share

- 2025-11: $193.73 per share

- 2025-12: $162.63 per share

- 2026-01: $176.19 per share

- 2026-02: $198.21 per share

- 2026-03: $244.18 per share

- 2026-04: $248.29 per share

- 2026-05: $248.77 per share

- 2026-06: $255.67 per share

- 2026-07: $316.47 per share

- 2026-08: $373.32 per share

- 2026-09: $395.42 per share

- 2026-10: $476.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $31.65 per share, central $36.01 per share, high $41.82 per share

- FY2017: low $41.33 per share, central $46.66 per share, high $53.75 per share

- FY2018: low $65.33 per share, central $84.57 per share, high $98.88 per share

- FY2019: low $73.04 per share, central $103.68 per share, high $121.76 per share

- FY2020: low $27.88 per share, central $31.73 per share, high $36.84 per share

- FY2021: low $84.96 per share, central $105.86 per share, high $121.92 per share

- FY2022: low $165.46 per share, central $230.16 per share, high $267.83 per share

- FY2023: low $368.97 per share, central $501.74 per share, high $585.94 per share

- FY2024: low $377.19 per share, central $487.81 per share, high $570.18 per share

- FY2025: low $356.82 per share, central $405.70 per share, high $470.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:05.394Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.