# MPLX LP (MPLX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MPLX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:21.612Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $57.12 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $59.58 per share, central $69.20 per share, high $80.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value $69.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:21.612Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.41×

- FY2019: 0.28×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.47×

- FY2023: 0.47×

- FY2024: 0.48×

- FY2025: 0.40×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.3%

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 22.5%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: 0.6%

- FY2021: 16.5%

- FY2022: 18.9%

- FY2023: 19.1%

- FY2024: 20.3%

- FY2025: 16.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $22B

- Net income, five-year total: $20B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 120.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.25×

- FY2022: 1.11×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 19.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.56 to 4.24 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 26.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: $42B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $445M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 26.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.3%

- Per-share value change: $2.68

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.24

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.82

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $23B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.68

- FY2017: $2.01

- FY2018: $2.39

- FY2019: $1.14

- FY2020: -$0.69

- FY2021: $3.00

- FY2022: $3.90

- FY2023: $3.92

- FY2024: $4.24

- FY2025: $4.82

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.71×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.3%

- FY2017: -5.7%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -7.5%

- FY2020: -14.4%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -2.3%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1% a year for ten years · "MPLX Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs and Expenses" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +8.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.851Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: MPLX Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Operating Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mplx-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-131700182.html))

- 2026-02-06: MPLX LP Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Throughput ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mplx-lp-q4-earnings-beat-143600014.html))

- 2026-05-08: MPLX Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Costs and Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mplx-q1-earnings-miss-estimates-152200556.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $3.0B 

- FY2017: $3.7B 

- FY2018: $6.1B 

- FY2019: $8.6B 

- FY2020: $8.4B 

- FY2021: $9.6B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $10B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 45.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 35.6% 

- FY2017: 35.5% 

- FY2018: 41.5% 

- FY2019: 42.5% 

- FY2020: 44.6% 

- FY2021: 42.3% 

- FY2022: 40.7% 

- FY2023: 43.7% 

- FY2024: 44.2% 

- FY2025: 45.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are USD 11.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 11817000000; grossProfit 5345000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.7% to 45.2% during 2023–25; it earns 16.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 45.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.053430337166549324],[2017,0.07560070295086746],[2018,0.22528739896793337],[2019,0.06261969539028153],[2020,0.0062323338069244],[2021,0.16509670841143342],[2022,0.18924064644418329],[2023,0.19110078492985036],[2024,0.20252163067394613],[2025,0.16077641455610936]]; median 0.1629365614837714. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 9.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 615000000; upkeep 591000000; owner earnings 233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.6394849785407724.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 728000000; upkeep 683000000; owner earnings 794000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9168765743073047.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 1153000000; upkeep 766000000; owner earnings 1818000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6342134213421342.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 1154000000; upkeep 1254000000; owner earnings 1033000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.117134559535334.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 529000000; owner earnings 3835000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 806000000; owner earnings 4368000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 937000000; owner earnings 4204000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1056000000; owner earnings 4544000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 457000000; upkeep 1351000000; owner earnings 4912000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09303745928338762.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Incremental return on capital 1.2011297231001383, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,974000000],[2017,3229000000],[2018,6001000000],[2019,3039000000],[2020,3006000000],[2021,3573000000],[2022,3047000000],[2023,3296000000],[2024,3603000000],[2025,4024000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 400000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 64% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MPLX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 64.027 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.02677246983793108. Price 57.12; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.56 → FY2025 4.820412168792934. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $34.02 per share

- 2016-11: $32.85 per share

- 2016-12: $34.62 per share

- 2017-01: $37.85 per share

- 2017-02: $37.21 per share

- 2017-03: $36.08 per share

- 2017-04: $35.23 per share

- 2017-05: $33.05 per share

- 2017-06: $33.40 per share

- 2017-07: $36.35 per share

- 2017-08: $34.32 per share

- 2017-09: $35.01 per share

- 2017-10: $35.26 per share

- 2017-11: $35.86 per share

- 2017-12: $35.47 per share

- 2018-01: $37.20 per share

- 2018-02: $34.53 per share

- 2018-03: $33.04 per share

- 2018-04: $35.33 per share

- 2018-05: $35.91 per share

- 2018-06: $34.14 per share

- 2018-07: $36.43 per share

- 2018-08: $35.47 per share

- 2018-09: $34.68 per share

- 2018-10: $33.61 per share

- 2018-11: $33.13 per share

- 2018-12: $30.30 per share

- 2019-01: $35.12 per share

- 2019-02: $33.16 per share

- 2019-03: $32.89 per share

- 2019-04: $32.26 per share

- 2019-05: $30.58 per share

- 2019-06: $32.19 per share

- 2019-07: $29.35 per share

- 2019-08: $27.91 per share

- 2019-09: $28.01 per share

- 2019-10: $26.37 per share

- 2019-11: $23.65 per share

- 2019-12: $25.46 per share

- 2020-01: $24.05 per share

- 2020-02: $20.29 per share

- 2020-03: $11.62 per share

- 2020-04: $18.10 per share

- 2020-05: $18.99 per share

- 2020-06: $17.28 per share

- 2020-07: $18.27 per share

- 2020-08: $18.27 per share

- 2020-09: $15.74 per share

- 2020-10: $17.21 per share

- 2020-11: $21.04 per share

- 2020-12: $21.65 per share

- 2021-01: $23.11 per share

- 2021-02: $23.81 per share

- 2021-03: $25.63 per share

- 2021-04: $26.99 per share

- 2021-05: $28.63 per share

- 2021-06: $29.61 per share

- 2021-07: $28.38 per share

- 2021-08: $28.12 per share

- 2021-09: $28.47 per share

- 2021-10: $30.12 per share

- 2021-11: $29.31 per share

- 2021-12: $29.59 per share

- 2022-01: $32.82 per share

- 2022-02: $32.78 per share

- 2022-03: $33.18 per share

- 2022-04: $32.36 per share

- 2022-05: $32.95 per share

- 2022-06: $29.15 per share

- 2022-07: $32.51 per share

- 2022-08: $32.62 per share

- 2022-09: $30.01 per share

- 2022-10: $33.54 per share

- 2022-11: $33.99 per share

- 2022-12: $32.84 per share

- 2023-01: $34.92 per share

- 2023-02: $34.63 per share

- 2023-03: $34.45 per share

- 2023-04: $34.99 per share

- 2023-05: $33.34 per share

- 2023-06: $33.94 per share

- 2023-07: $35.51 per share

- 2023-08: $34.89 per share

- 2023-09: $35.57 per share

- 2023-10: $36.04 per share

- 2023-11: $36.46 per share

- 2023-12: $36.72 per share

- 2024-01: $38.55 per share

- 2024-02: $38.44 per share

- 2024-03: $41.56 per share

- 2024-04: $41.80 per share

- 2024-05: $40.68 per share

- 2024-06: $42.59 per share

- 2024-07: $42.82 per share

- 2024-08: $42.88 per share

- 2024-09: $44.46 per share

- 2024-10: $44.42 per share

- 2024-11: $51.66 per share

- 2024-12: $47.86 per share

- 2025-01: $52.01 per share

- 2025-02: $53.91 per share

- 2025-03: $53.52 per share

- 2025-04: $50.93 per share

- 2025-05: $51.00 per share

- 2025-06: $51.51 per share

- 2025-07: $52.50 per share

- 2025-08: $50.87 per share

- 2025-09: $49.95 per share

- 2025-10: $50.76 per share

- 2025-11: $54.33 per share

- 2025-12: $53.37 per share

- 2026-01: $55.90 per share

- 2026-02: $58.94 per share

- 2026-03: $57.07 per share

- 2026-04: $56.27 per share

- 2026-05: $54.65 per share

- 2026-06: $56.33 per share

- 2026-07: $58.45 per share

- 2026-08: $59.17 per share

- 2026-09: $56.32 per share

- 2026-10: $56.91 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $13.76 per share, central $15.59 per share, high $18.03 per share

- FY2017: low $15.37 per share, central $17.49 per share, high $20.31 per share

- FY2018: low $18.78 per share, central $21.37 per share, high $24.82 per share

- FY2019: low $15.69 per share, central $17.86 per share, high $20.74 per share

- FY2020: low $10.45 per share, central $11.89 per share, high $13.81 per share

- FY2021: low $21.92 per share, central $24.94 per share, high $28.97 per share

- FY2022: low $38.12 per share, central $48.70 per share, high $56.90 per share

- FY2023: low $51.43 per share, central $65.06 per share, high $75.86 per share

- FY2024: low $52.95 per share, central $65.91 per share, high $76.71 per share

- FY2025: low $55.51 per share, central $64.28 per share, high $74.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552000/000155200026000009/mplx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.