# Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MPWR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:21.900Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,249.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $249.18 per share, central $350.90 per share, high $407.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $350.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:21.900Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.9% at the stated quote. About 4.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.29×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 35.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 26.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 55.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 40.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 32.1%

- FY2017: 28.1%

- FY2018: 39.4%

- FY2019: 31.4%

- FY2020: 41.9%

- FY2021: 45.0%

- FY2022: 47.4%

- FY2023: 43.3%

- FY2024: 26.0%

- FY2025: 25.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 46.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.1% vs 26.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.26 to 12.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: $41B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 33.6%

- Per-share value change: $11.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.26

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $29M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.26

- FY2017: $1.50

- FY2018: $2.36

- FY2019: $2.38

- FY2020: $3.50

- FY2021: $5.05

- FY2022: $9.05

- FY2023: $8.76

- FY2024: $36.59

- FY2025: $12.75

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -5.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 27.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.36×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.8%

- FY2017: -10.5%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -11.2%

- FY2020: -8.6%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: 9.3%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: 27.6%

- FY2025: -5.3%

## Holders

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Apr 2026 · "MPWR Raises 2026 Enterprise Data Growth Floor as AI Demand Surges" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +17.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:11.924Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 24.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: MPWR Q1 Earnings Call: Market Diversification and New Design Wins Drive Revenue Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mpwr-q1-earnings-call-market-204436052.html))

- 2025-08-01: Monolithic Power Systems signals 8% Q3 sequential growth with enterprise data ramping 20–30% ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476229-monolithic-power-systems-signals-8-percent-q3-sequential-growth-with-enterprise-data-ramping?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-30: Monolithic Power forecasts fourth-quarter revenue above estimates on AI boost ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/monolithic-power-forecasts-fourth-quarter-202400776.html))

- 2026-07-31: Monolithic Power Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates on Enterprise Data Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/monolithic-power-beats-q2-earnings-120100716.html))

- 2026-08-12: MPWR Raises 2026 Enterprise Data Growth Floor as AI Demand Surges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/mpwr-raises-2026-enterprise-data-160500435.html))

- 2026-10-08: Monolithic Power Systems Stock Passes Early Entry Amid High Demand For AI Tech ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d63b5754-ca09-3941-8244-b9cc8726a949/monolithic-power-systems.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +17.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $471M 

- FY2018: $582M 

- FY2019: $628M 

- FY2020: $844M 

- FY2021: $1.2B 

- FY2022: $1.8B 

- FY2023: $1.8B 

- FY2024: $2.2B 

- FY2025: $2.8B 

- FY2026: $3.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 55.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 54.3% 

- FY2017: 54.8% 

- FY2018: 55.4% 

- FY2019: 55.2% 

- FY2020: 55.2% 

- FY2021: 56.8% 

- FY2022: 58.4% 

- FY2023: 56.1% 

- FY2024: 55.3% 

- FY2025: 55.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 2.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2790459000; grossProfit 1539741000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MPWR.US: Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. provides semiconductor-based power electronics solutions in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company offers direct current (DC) to DC solutions to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems, such as cloud-based and on-premises CPU servers and workstations, AI systems, memory, storage solutions, notebooks, infotainment, power sources, home appliances, network infrastructure, and satellite communications. It also provides alternating current (AC) to DC; driver metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors; power management integrated circuits (ICs); and current limit switch and lighting control products. The company serves storage and computing, enterprise data, automotive, communications, consumer, and industrial end markets through third-party distributors and value-added resellers. Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in West Palm Beach, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.2% to 56.1% during 2023–25; it earns 35.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 55.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3206641074969465],[2017,0.28132565416902483],[2018,0.39350052599740837],[2019,0.31438946427287146],[2020,0.4190787118020487],[2021,0.4502812772598377],[2022,0.4744030605611448],[2023,0.43277705688674833],[2024,0.2595528067956736],[2025,0.25767246194801147]]; median 0.35708231674717744. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 19.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 46.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 13213823.872962255; upkeep 23898176.127037745; owner earnings 43495823.87296225. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3037952312745177.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 20032869.73463463; upkeep 45740130.26536537; owner earnings 35563869.73463463. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5632927430033069.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 10215000; upkeep 12311000; owner earnings 105268000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09703803625033249.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 12279399.765998185; upkeep 84507600.23400182; owner earnings 39198399.765998185. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31326278213657305.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 36453000; upkeep 19186000; owner earnings 164375000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22176730038022813.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 66539000; upkeep 28699000; owner earnings 242023000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2749284158943571.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 21729000; upkeep 37114000; owner earnings 437672000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04964676744228555.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 7558828.788305961; upkeep 50019171.21169404; owner earnings 417522828.78830594. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01810398921238021.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 98461539.55529581; upkeep 47656460.44470419; owner earnings 1775473539.5552957. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05545649504861534.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 119500000; upkeep 52513000; owner earnings 615927000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19401649870845084.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 0.4609151455085557, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,33099000],[2017,33926000],[2018,47475000],[2019,67294000],[2020,88786000],[2021,109364000],[2022,137965000],[2023,185844000],[2024,240623000],[2025,284797000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 7686000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MPWR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.588 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our products must meet specifications, and undetected defects and failures may occur" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Our products must meet specifications, and undetected defects and failures may occur

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 24.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 30.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.47757306711826. Price 1249.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8606033913234971 → FY2025 12.749736074023474. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $78.81 per share

- 2016-11: $82.04 per share

- 2016-12: $81.93 per share

- 2017-01: $87.24 per share

- 2017-02: $87.97 per share

- 2017-03: $92.10 per share

- 2017-04: $91.50 per share

- 2017-05: $98.20 per share

- 2017-06: $96.40 per share

- 2017-07: $102.32 per share

- 2017-08: $101.32 per share

- 2017-09: $106.55 per share

- 2017-10: $121.67 per share

- 2017-11: $118.35 per share

- 2017-12: $112.36 per share

- 2018-01: $119.12 per share

- 2018-02: $117.06 per share

- 2018-03: $115.77 per share

- 2018-04: $117.10 per share

- 2018-05: $131.81 per share

- 2018-06: $133.67 per share

- 2018-07: $132.68 per share

- 2018-08: $149.87 per share

- 2018-09: $125.53 per share

- 2018-10: $118.12 per share

- 2018-11: $132.07 per share

- 2018-12: $116.25 per share

- 2019-01: $126.56 per share

- 2019-02: $134.11 per share

- 2019-03: $135.49 per share

- 2019-04: $155.71 per share

- 2019-05: $116.45 per share

- 2019-06: $135.78 per share

- 2019-07: $148.16 per share

- 2019-08: $150.56 per share

- 2019-09: $155.63 per share

- 2019-10: $149.92 per share

- 2019-11: $160.68 per share

- 2019-12: $178.02 per share

- 2020-01: $171.17 per share

- 2020-02: $158.64 per share

- 2020-03: $167.46 per share

- 2020-04: $199.91 per share

- 2020-05: $209.75 per share

- 2020-06: $237.00 per share

- 2020-07: $265.01 per share

- 2020-08: $267.13 per share

- 2020-09: $279.61 per share

- 2020-10: $319.60 per share

- 2020-11: $319.96 per share

- 2020-12: $366.23 per share

- 2021-01: $355.29 per share

- 2021-02: $374.52 per share

- 2021-03: $353.21 per share

- 2021-04: $361.38 per share

- 2021-05: $343.12 per share

- 2021-06: $373.45 per share

- 2021-07: $449.26 per share

- 2021-08: $494.93 per share

- 2021-09: $484.68 per share

- 2021-10: $525.46 per share

- 2021-11: $553.46 per share

- 2021-12: $493.33 per share

- 2022-01: $402.93 per share

- 2022-02: $458.70 per share

- 2022-03: $485.68 per share

- 2022-04: $392.24 per share

- 2022-05: $450.39 per share

- 2022-06: $384.04 per share

- 2022-07: $464.72 per share

- 2022-08: $453.18 per share

- 2022-09: $363.40 per share

- 2022-10: $339.45 per share

- 2022-11: $381.96 per share

- 2022-12: $353.61 per share

- 2023-01: $426.56 per share

- 2023-02: $484.29 per share

- 2023-03: $500.54 per share

- 2023-04: $461.97 per share

- 2023-05: $489.91 per share

- 2023-06: $540.23 per share

- 2023-07: $559.49 per share

- 2023-08: $521.21 per share

- 2023-09: $462.00 per share

- 2023-10: $441.74 per share

- 2023-11: $548.72 per share

- 2023-12: $630.78 per share

- 2024-01: $602.72 per share

- 2024-02: $720.04 per share

- 2024-03: $677.42 per share

- 2024-04: $669.33 per share

- 2024-05: $735.63 per share

- 2024-06: $821.68 per share

- 2024-07: $863.09 per share

- 2024-08: $934.68 per share

- 2024-09: $924.50 per share

- 2024-10: $759.30 per share

- 2024-11: $567.64 per share

- 2024-12: $591.70 per share

- 2025-01: $637.37 per share

- 2025-02: $611.01 per share

- 2025-03: $579.98 per share

- 2025-04: $593.10 per share

- 2025-05: $661.90 per share

- 2025-06: $731.38 per share

- 2025-07: $711.24 per share

- 2025-08: $835.76 per share

- 2025-09: $920.64 per share

- 2025-10: $1,005.00 per share

- 2025-11: $928.17 per share

- 2025-12: $906.36 per share

- 2026-01: $1,124.15 per share

- 2026-02: $1,142.74 per share

- 2026-03: $1,093.35 per share

- 2026-04: $1,614.41 per share

- 2026-05: $1,566.21 per share

- 2026-06: $1,382.36 per share

- 2026-07: $1,426.03 per share

- 2026-08: $1,267.77 per share

- 2026-09: $1,347.22 per share

- 2026-10: $1,319.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $19.53 per share, central $25.23 per share, high $28.55 per share

- FY2017: low $22.16 per share, central $28.81 per share, high $32.68 per share

- FY2018: low $28.06 per share, central $36.58 per share, high $41.53 per share

- FY2019: low $28.69 per share, central $35.86 per share, high $40.39 per share

- FY2020: low $39.63 per share, central $51.34 per share, high $58.16 per share

- FY2021: low $76.61 per share, central $103.17 per share, high $118.64 per share

- FY2022: low $112.70 per share, central $154.77 per share, high $179.27 per share

- FY2023: low $123.70 per share, central $167.29 per share, high $192.67 per share

- FY2024: low $157.64 per share, central $218.01 per share, high $253.16 per share

- FY2025: low $217.16 per share, central $305.38 per share, high $354.59 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:05.870Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280452/000143774926006113/mpwr20251231_10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.