# Merck & Company (MRK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MRK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:22.318Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $145.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $81.17 per share, central $92.04 per share, high $106.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value $92.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:22.318Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2023 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.32

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2023

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.21×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.36×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 70.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 72.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.3%

- FY2017: 13.8%

- FY2018: 25.7%

- FY2019: 25.0%

- FY2020: 13.5%

- FY2021: 27.0%

- FY2022: 37.1%

- FY2023: 4.2%

- FY2024: 35.3%

- FY2025: 30.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $66B

- Net income, five-year total: $63B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.3% vs 30.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.34 to 6.74 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: $92B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $29B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 22.3%

- Per-share value change: $5.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.74

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.25

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $23B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $93B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.34

- FY2017: $0.83

- FY2018: $2.22

- FY2019: $3.82

- FY2020: $2.78

- FY2021: $5.14

- FY2022: $5.71

- FY2023: $0.14

- FY2024: $6.74

- FY2025: $7.28

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.22×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.90×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.92×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.8%

- FY2017: -4.6%

- FY2018: -5.7%

- FY2019: -4.3%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -1.0%

- FY2022: -4.2%

- FY2023: -11.9%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: 1.3%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years · sales +1.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.004Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-19: Merck Stock Rise as New PAH Drug Winrevair Meets Goal in Another Study ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-stock-rise-pah-drug-155200590.html))

- 2026-02-16: Merck Indicates Better Growth Visibility in Post-Keytruda LOE Period ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-indicates-better-growth-visibility-164500197.html))

- 2026-04-22: MRK Down as Triplet Therapy Fails to Meet Goal in Kidney Cancer Study ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/mrk-down-triplet-therapy-fails-161400129.html))

- 2026-05-12: Merck (MRK) Tops Quarterly Sales Forecasts as Keytruda Drives Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/merck-mrk-tops-quarterly-sales-000046707.html))

- 2026-06-22: Merck (MRK) Wins FDA Expansions, Posts HIV Data, And Ends Lung Cancer Trial ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/merck-mrk-wins-fda-expansions-111003871.html))

- 2026-08-19: Merck Surges 7.5% After First Phase 3 mRNA Cancer-Vaccine Win ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/merck-surges-7-5-first-180638592.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $40B 

- FY2017: $40B 

- FY2018: $42B 

- FY2019: $39B 

- FY2020: $42B 

- FY2021: $49B 

- FY2022: $59B 

- FY2023: $60B 

- FY2024: $64B 

- FY2025: $65B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 72%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 64.8% 

- FY2017: 67.8% 

- FY2018: 68.1% 

- FY2019: 69.3% 

- FY2020: 67.2% 

- FY2021: 72.0% 

- FY2022: 70.6% 

- FY2023: 73.2% 

- FY2024: 76.3% 

- FY2025: 72.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are USD 64.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 64926000000; grossProfit 46731000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MRK.US: Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands. The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista, Bovilis Cryptium, Banamine, Estrumate, Matrix, Resflor, Zuprevo, Revalor, Safe-Guard, M+Pac, Porcilis, Circumvent, Nobilis/Innovax, Paracox and Coccivac, Exzolt, Slice, Imvixa, Clynav, Aquavac/Norvax, Aquaflor, Flexolt brands; Allflex Livestock Intelligence solutions; and companion animal products under the Bravecto One-Month, Bravecto Injectable/Quantum, Bravecto TriUNO, Bravecto Plus, Sentinel Spectrum, Sentinel Flavor Tabs, Numelvi, Optimmune, Nobivac NXT, GilvetMab, Otomax, Mometamax, Mometamax Ultra, Posatex, Caninsulin/Vetsulin, Panacur, Safeguard, Regumate, Prestige, Scalibor/Exspot, Sure Petcare, and Home Again brands. It has development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo's deruxtecan ADC candidates; AstraZeneca PLC to co-development and co-commercialize AstraZeneca's Lynparza products for multiple cancer types; licensed to develop, manufacture and commercialize LM-299, a novel investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody from LaNova; and collaboration agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd., Bayer AG, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, as well Moderna, Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. has strategic collaboration with Infinimmune, Inc. to discover and develop antibodies against multiple therapeutic targets. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 72% to 76.3% during 2023–25; it earns 25.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 73.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.14344673660075669],[2017,0.1382195595044425],[2018,0.2573772844738141],[2019,0.250463992033883],[2020,0.13458253756992447],[2021,0.27045268022340363],[2022,0.3705740896635126],[2023,0.042145349985732786],[2024,0.35302338241728337],[2025,0.30389923476606284]]; median 0.25392063825384853. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

A new NRDL was recently completed in which new entries averaged approximately 60% price reductions.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Mature products that have e require a price negotiation which could impact the outlook in the market for selected brands. A new NRDL was recently completed in which new entries averaged approximately 60% price reductions. While pricing pressure has always existed in China, health care reform has increased this pressure in part due to the acceleration of generic substitution through volume-based procurement (VBP).

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1614000000; owner earnings 7777000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1888000000; owner earnings 5182000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2615000000; owner earnings 8124000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3473000000; owner earnings 10022000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 824870598.1455708; upkeep 3859129401.8544292; owner earnings 6693870598.145571. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1232277478405525.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 1234000000; upkeep 3214000000; owner earnings 13049000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09456663345850257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 479000000; upkeep 3909000000; owner earnings 14519000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03299125284110476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3863000000; owner earnings 374000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3372000000; owner earnings 18244000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4112000000; owner earnings 19980000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,5124000000],[2017,5167000000],[2018,5172000000],[2019,5695000000],[2020,6215000000],[2021,6610000000],[2022,7012000000],[2023,7445000000],[2024,7840000000],[2025,8176000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 5084000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MRK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.055999999999999994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The Company is dependent on its patent rights" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); The Company is dependent on its patent rights

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08358748316395148. Price 145.19; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.202157072958398 → FY2025 7.969684882329477. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $58.72 per share

- 2016-11: $61.19 per share

- 2016-12: $58.87 per share

- 2017-01: $61.99 per share

- 2017-02: $65.87 per share

- 2017-03: $63.54 per share

- 2017-04: $62.33 per share

- 2017-05: $65.11 per share

- 2017-06: $64.09 per share

- 2017-07: $63.88 per share

- 2017-08: $63.86 per share

- 2017-09: $64.03 per share

- 2017-10: $55.09 per share

- 2017-11: $55.27 per share

- 2017-12: $56.27 per share

- 2018-01: $59.25 per share

- 2018-02: $54.22 per share

- 2018-03: $54.47 per share

- 2018-04: $58.87 per share

- 2018-05: $59.53 per share

- 2018-06: $60.70 per share

- 2018-07: $65.87 per share

- 2018-08: $68.59 per share

- 2018-09: $70.94 per share

- 2018-10: $73.61 per share

- 2018-11: $79.34 per share

- 2018-12: $76.41 per share

- 2019-01: $74.43 per share

- 2019-02: $81.29 per share

- 2019-03: $83.17 per share

- 2019-04: $78.71 per share

- 2019-05: $79.21 per share

- 2019-06: $83.85 per share

- 2019-07: $82.99 per share

- 2019-08: $86.47 per share

- 2019-09: $84.18 per share

- 2019-10: $86.66 per share

- 2019-11: $87.18 per share

- 2019-12: $90.95 per share

- 2020-01: $85.44 per share

- 2020-02: $76.56 per share

- 2020-03: $76.94 per share

- 2020-04: $79.34 per share

- 2020-05: $80.72 per share

- 2020-06: $77.33 per share

- 2020-07: $80.24 per share

- 2020-08: $85.27 per share

- 2020-09: $82.95 per share

- 2020-10: $75.21 per share

- 2020-11: $80.39 per share

- 2020-12: $81.80 per share

- 2021-01: $77.07 per share

- 2021-02: $72.62 per share

- 2021-03: $77.09 per share

- 2021-04: $74.50 per share

- 2021-05: $75.89 per share

- 2021-06: $77.77 per share

- 2021-07: $76.87 per share

- 2021-08: $76.29 per share

- 2021-09: $75.11 per share

- 2021-10: $88.05 per share

- 2021-11: $74.91 per share

- 2021-12: $76.64 per share

- 2022-01: $81.48 per share

- 2022-02: $76.58 per share

- 2022-03: $82.05 per share

- 2022-04: $88.69 per share

- 2022-05: $92.03 per share

- 2022-06: $91.17 per share

- 2022-07: $89.34 per share

- 2022-08: $85.36 per share

- 2022-09: $86.12 per share

- 2022-10: $101.20 per share

- 2022-11: $110.12 per share

- 2022-12: $110.95 per share

- 2023-01: $107.41 per share

- 2023-02: $106.24 per share

- 2023-03: $106.39 per share

- 2023-04: $115.47 per share

- 2023-05: $110.41 per share

- 2023-06: $115.39 per share

- 2023-07: $106.65 per share

- 2023-08: $108.98 per share

- 2023-09: $102.95 per share

- 2023-10: $102.70 per share

- 2023-11: $102.48 per share

- 2023-12: $109.02 per share

- 2024-01: $120.78 per share

- 2024-02: $127.15 per share

- 2024-03: $131.95 per share

- 2024-04: $129.22 per share

- 2024-05: $125.54 per share

- 2024-06: $123.80 per share

- 2024-07: $113.13 per share

- 2024-08: $118.45 per share

- 2024-09: $113.56 per share

- 2024-10: $102.32 per share

- 2024-11: $101.64 per share

- 2024-12: $99.48 per share

- 2025-01: $98.82 per share

- 2025-02: $92.25 per share

- 2025-03: $89.76 per share

- 2025-04: $85.20 per share

- 2025-05: $76.84 per share

- 2025-06: $79.16 per share

- 2025-07: $78.12 per share

- 2025-08: $84.12 per share

- 2025-09: $83.93 per share

- 2025-10: $85.98 per share

- 2025-11: $104.83 per share

- 2025-12: $105.26 per share

- 2026-01: $110.27 per share

- 2026-02: $123.82 per share

- 2026-03: $120.29 per share

- 2026-04: $109.18 per share

- 2026-05: $118.72 per share

- 2026-06: $128.50 per share

- 2026-07: $130.20 per share

- 2026-08: $147.76 per share

- 2026-09: $145.31 per share

- 2026-10: $145.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $39.91 per share, central $44.77 per share, high $51.25 per share

- FY2017: low $36.72 per share, central $41.41 per share, high $47.66 per share

- FY2018: low $35.02 per share, central $39.46 per share, high $45.36 per share

- FY2019: low $36.13 per share, central $40.59 per share, high $46.53 per share

- FY2020: low $37.15 per share, central $41.88 per share, high $48.17 per share

- FY2021: low $43.10 per share, central $48.65 per share, high $56.05 per share

- FY2022: low $67.15 per share, central $75.76 per share, high $87.22 per share

- FY2023: low $65.49 per share, central $74.21 per share, high $85.80 per share

- FY2024: low $72.48 per share, central $81.80 per share, high $94.21 per share

- FY2025: low $81.13 per share, central $91.59 per share, high $105.51 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310158/000031015826000063/mrk-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.