# Merlin Properties SOCIMI (MRL.MC)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MRL.MC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:22.199Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 11.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 6.19 per share, central EUR 6.70 per share, high EUR 7.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 6.70 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:22.199Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; ES 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.82×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.71×

- FY2017: 2.62×

- FY2018: 1.85×

- FY2019: 0.74×

- FY2020: 0.54×

- FY2021: 1.23×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.43×

- FY2025: 0.43×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 90.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 84.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.1%

- FY2017: 11.3%

- FY2018: 9.0%

- FY2019: 3.0%

- FY2020: 2.0%

- FY2021: 3.7%

- FY2022: 0.7%

- FY2023: 0.1%

- FY2024: 2.0%

- FY2025: 1.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.12×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 944M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -7.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -50.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.40×

- FY2025: 1.51×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.0% vs 1.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.48 to 0.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Market cap gain: EUR 2.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 422M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -21.1%

- Per-share value change: EUR -1.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 4.8M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 4.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 1.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 1.48

- FY2017: EUR 2.39

- FY2018: EUR 1.80

- FY2019: EUR 1.22

- FY2020: EUR 0.12

- FY2021: EUR 1.08

- FY2022: EUR 0.56

- FY2023: EUR -0.13

- FY2024: EUR 0.22

- FY2025: EUR 0.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.31×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.08×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.1%

- FY2017: 3.4%

- FY2018: 4.8%

- FY2019: 2.0%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -0.1%

- FY2025: -0.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 26% since Jun 2026 · "FFO per Share: Running at minus 2.6% due to capital increase." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +7.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.296Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/959800L8KD863DP30X04/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en/reports/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: EUR 352M 

- FY2017: EUR 463M 

- FY2018: EUR 590M 

- FY2019: EUR 515M 

- FY2020: EUR 446M 

- FY2021: EUR 383M 

- FY2022: EUR 439M 

- FY2023: EUR 505M 

- FY2024: EUR 503M 

- FY2025: EUR 539M 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 84.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/959800L8KD863DP30X04/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en/reports/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 94.4% 

- FY2017: 92.3% 

- FY2018: 92.9% 

- FY2019: 90.7% 

- FY2020: 89.8% 

- FY2021: 87.9% 

- FY2022: 88.8% 

- FY2023: 83.4% 

- FY2024: 84.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are EUR 539 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 538963000; grossProfit 538963000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 83.4% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 2.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 83.4%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/959800L8KD863DP30X04/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en/reports/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 84.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06123456396764654],[2017,0.11272772929780515],[2018,0.08971369977149297],[2019,0.030280637469162323],[2020,0.019647105842681194],[2021,0.0373871473451128],[2022,0.007117615595294615],[2023,0.0006637154493791436],[2024,0.0197176843698661],[2025,0.01943392440536847]]; median 0.02499916091951421. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3664000; owner earnings 583760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 6576000; owner earnings 1104221000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 328000; upkeep 1572000; owner earnings 854878000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0003836804783840501.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 9916000; owner earnings 555846000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2568000; owner earnings 55404000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3674000; owner earnings 510401000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1715000; owner earnings 263257000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/959800L8KD863DP30X04/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en/reports/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 19480000; owner earnings 173984000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 10572000; owner earnings 193336000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,101202000],[2017,187411000],[2018,215364000],[2019,232347000],[2020,68518000],[2021,70033000],[2022,455429000],[2023,207023000],[2024,105171000],[2025,123316000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 33.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MRL.MC SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 33.153 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13613931033872484. Price 11.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.15146496494252631 → FY2025 0.34358505923206245. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 10.24 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 9.51 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 10.33 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 10.36 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 10.72 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 10.48 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 10.87 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 11.29 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 11.06 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 11.38 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 11.58 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 11.72 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 11.33 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 11.05 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 11.30 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 11.59 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 11.77 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 12.44 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 12.80 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 11.79 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 12.46 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 12.65 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 12.03 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 11.69 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 11.08 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 11.16 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 10.79 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 11.71 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 11.41 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 11.67 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 12.15 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 11.91 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 12.20 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 12.35 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 12.16 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 12.81 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 13.20 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 12.97 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 12.79 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 12.80 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 11.65 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 6.87 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 8.46 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 7.55 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 7.38 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 6.99 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 7.52 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 7.13 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 5.78 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 7.71 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 7.78 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 7.91 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 8.59 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 8.72 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 9.19 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 9.49 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 8.74 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 9.46 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 9.89 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 8.87 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 9.37 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 9.84 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 9.57 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 10.03 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 10.02 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 10.59 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 10.41 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 10.53 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 9.21 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 10.47 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 9.12 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 7.91 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 8.57 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 8.87 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 8.78 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 8.97 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 8.99 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 8.06 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 8.01 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 7.69 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 7.84 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 8.47 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 8.27 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 7.99 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 7.86 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 9.26 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 10.06 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 9.51 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 8.76 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 9.98 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 10.61 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 11.02 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 10.40 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 10.55 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 11.09 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 11.37 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 10.26 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 10.40 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 10.16 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 11.18 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 10.45 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 9.86 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 9.96 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 10.90 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 11.13 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 12.18 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 12.73 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 12.84 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 13.51 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 12.72 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 12.43 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 12.51 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 15.01 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 13.92 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 14.85 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 15.12 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 15.34 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 15.06 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 13.40 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 11.92 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 11.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2018: low EUR 19.98 per share, central EUR 22.69 per share, high EUR 26.30 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 18.13 per share, central EUR 20.56 per share, high EUR 23.79 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 15.72 per share, central EUR 17.82 per share, high EUR 20.61 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 13.75 per share, central EUR 15.37 per share, high EUR 17.53 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 12.03 per share, central EUR 13.56 per share, high EUR 15.60 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 6.67 per share, central EUR 8.32 per share, high EUR 9.60 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 6.14 per share, central EUR 6.61 per share, high EUR 7.23 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 5.90 per share, central EUR 6.41 per share, high EUR 7.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/959800L8KD863DP30X04/2024-12-31/ESEF/ES/0/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en/reports/959800L8KD863DP30X04-20241231-en.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.