# Moderna (MRNA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MRNA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:22.608Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $236.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 1.45×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.31×

- FY2018: -3.37×

- FY2019: -11.36×

- FY2020: -2.78×

- FY2021: 0.75×

- FY2022: 0.50×

- FY2023: -0.62×

- FY2024: -1.23×

- FY2025: -1.58×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -1.49×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 24.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: -25.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -68.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 24.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 78.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -65.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -20.1%

- FY2017: -29.8%

- FY2018: -19.9%

- FY2019: -211.0%

- FY2020: -21.5%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 78.9%

- FY2023: -52.0%

- FY2024: -68.2%

- FY2025: -51.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -183.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 37.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 60.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.24×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -20.1% vs -52.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.86 to -9.27 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 20.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: $6.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $8.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 20.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$8.41

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.86

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$9.27

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $107M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -20.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -52.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$3.56

- FY2017: -$0.86

- FY2018: -$1.17

- FY2019: -$1.55

- FY2020: -$1.96

- FY2021: $28.31

- FY2022: $20.10

- FY2023: -$12.34

- FY2024: -$9.27

- FY2025: -$7.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.79×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -20.0%

- FY2017: 7.0%

- FY2018: -2.7%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -37.8%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: 13.1%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -7.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 33% since Nov 2021 · "With vaccination rates falling and Spikevax sales drying up, revenues have tumbled." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +14.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.145Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-01: Moderna Stock Drops as Firm Cuts Revenue Outlook on UK Vaccine Deliveries Delay ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-stock-drops-firm-cuts-143004557.html))

- 2026-01-12: Moderna Raises 2025 Forecast, Targets Major Vaccine And Cancer Readouts In 2026 ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/moderna-raises-2025-forecast-targets-major-vaccine-and-cancer-readouts-2026))

- 2026-02-18: Moderna stock surges as FDA reverses course, agrees to review new flu shot ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-stock-surges-as-fda-reverses-course-agrees-to-review-new-flu-shot-162043049.html))

- 2026-06-29: MRNA Stock Jumps to 52-Week High on Expansion Plans Beyond Vaccines ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/mrna-stock-jumps-52-week-170200990.html))

- 2026-07-31: MRNA Q2 Earnings Meet, Stock Down on Norovirus Vaccine Setback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/mrna-q2-earnings-meet-stock-180400939.html))

- 2026-08-19: Stock Market Today, Aug. 19: Moderna Skyrockets 177% on Positive Phase 3 Melanoma Data ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-today-aug-19-212102683.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +14.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: $206M 

- FY2018: $123M 

- FY2019: $48M 

- FY2020: $274M 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $19B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $3.2B 

- FY2025: $1.9B 

- FY2026: $2.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 55.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 86.1% 

- FY2017: 90.0% 

- FY2020: 97.1% 

- FY2021: 85.2% 

- FY2022: 71.3% 

- FY2023: 31.5% 

- FY2024: 54.2% 

- FY2025: 55.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in biotechnology; annual sales are USD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 1944000000; grossProfit 1076000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MRNA.US: Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31.5% to 55.3% during 2023–25; it lost 25.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 31.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 54.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 55.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.20102170449725554],[2017,-0.29815305633475225],[2018,-0.19876274989924278],[2019,-2.1095633281791315],[2020,-0.215469535382416],[2021,2.8177441795961213],[2022,0.7894286566866513],[2023,-0.5199208197484863],[2024,-0.6818092321155108],[2025,-0.515049840933192]]; median -0.25681129585858414. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 232000000; owner earnings 12202000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004261596459596787.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 348000000; owner earnings 8362000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006218607988519493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,633000],[2017,1483000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,7040000],[2021,124000000],[2022,184000000],[2023,270000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MRNA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.337000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may experience difficulties executing our near-term strategy and prioritized pipeline." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); We may experience difficulties executing our near-term strategy and prioritized pipeline.

### What the price says

The price is 47.3 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Closing price 236.5 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 4.997429305912596; price multiple 47.32433127572017. FY2025 cash earnings/share -7.195372750642673. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-12: $15.27 per share

- 2019-01: $16.60 per share

- 2019-02: $22.60 per share

- 2019-03: $20.35 per share

- 2019-04: $26.03 per share

- 2019-05: $20.78 per share

- 2019-06: $14.64 per share

- 2019-07: $13.10 per share

- 2019-08: $15.73 per share

- 2019-09: $15.92 per share

- 2019-10: $16.75 per share

- 2019-11: $20.36 per share

- 2019-12: $19.56 per share

- 2020-01: $20.51 per share

- 2020-02: $25.93 per share

- 2020-03: $29.95 per share

- 2020-04: $45.99 per share

- 2020-05: $61.50 per share

- 2020-06: $64.21 per share

- 2020-07: $74.10 per share

- 2020-08: $64.89 per share

- 2020-09: $70.75 per share

- 2020-10: $67.47 per share

- 2020-11: $152.74 per share

- 2020-12: $104.47 per share

- 2021-01: $173.16 per share

- 2021-02: $154.81 per share

- 2021-03: $130.95 per share

- 2021-04: $178.82 per share

- 2021-05: $185.01 per share

- 2021-06: $234.98 per share

- 2021-07: $353.60 per share

- 2021-08: $376.69 per share

- 2021-09: $384.86 per share

- 2021-10: $345.21 per share

- 2021-11: $352.43 per share

- 2021-12: $253.98 per share

- 2022-01: $169.33 per share

- 2022-02: $153.60 per share

- 2022-03: $172.26 per share

- 2022-04: $134.41 per share

- 2022-05: $145.33 per share

- 2022-06: $142.85 per share

- 2022-07: $164.09 per share

- 2022-08: $132.27 per share

- 2022-09: $118.25 per share

- 2022-10: $150.33 per share

- 2022-11: $175.91 per share

- 2022-12: $179.62 per share

- 2023-01: $176.06 per share

- 2023-02: $138.81 per share

- 2023-03: $153.58 per share

- 2023-04: $132.89 per share

- 2023-05: $127.71 per share

- 2023-06: $121.50 per share

- 2023-07: $117.66 per share

- 2023-08: $113.07 per share

- 2023-09: $103.29 per share

- 2023-10: $75.96 per share

- 2023-11: $77.70 per share

- 2023-12: $99.45 per share

- 2024-01: $101.05 per share

- 2024-02: $92.24 per share

- 2024-03: $106.56 per share

- 2024-04: $110.31 per share

- 2024-05: $142.55 per share

- 2024-06: $118.75 per share

- 2024-07: $119.22 per share

- 2024-08: $77.40 per share

- 2024-09: $66.83 per share

- 2024-10: $54.36 per share

- 2024-11: $43.06 per share

- 2024-12: $41.58 per share

- 2025-01: $39.42 per share

- 2025-02: $30.96 per share

- 2025-03: $28.35 per share

- 2025-04: $28.54 per share

- 2025-05: $26.56 per share

- 2025-06: $27.59 per share

- 2025-07: $29.56 per share

- 2025-08: $24.09 per share

- 2025-09: $25.83 per share

- 2025-10: $27.16 per share

- 2025-11: $25.98 per share

- 2025-12: $29.49 per share

- 2026-01: $44.07 per share

- 2026-02: $53.57 per share

- 2026-03: $50.80 per share

- 2026-04: $45.94 per share

- 2026-05: $47.19 per share

- 2026-06: $70.03 per share

- 2026-07: $54.82 per share

- 2026-08: $140.34 per share

- 2026-09: $192.57 per share

- 2026-10: $216.25 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:06.570Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000168285226000033/mrna-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.