# Morgan Stanley (MS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:23.581Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $182.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $79.75 per share, central $99.69 per share, high $132.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $99.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:23.581Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.20×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.5B

- FY2017: $5.6B

- FY2018: $8.2B

- FY2019: $8.5B

- FY2020: $11B

- FY2021: $15B

- FY2022: $11B

- FY2023: $8.5B

- FY2024: $13B

- FY2025: $16B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- median cost/income ratio exceeds 65%

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 12.1%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 9.3%

- Cost / income, median: 72.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.3%

- FY2017: 9.3%

- FY2018: 11.5%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: 12.3%

- FY2021: 18.2%

- FY2022: 13.9%

- FY2023: 11.3%

- FY2024: 15.7%

- FY2025: 18.3%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 12.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $29.75

- Ending book value per share: $55.84

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 8.3%

- FY2018: 29.2%

- FY2019: 11.2%

- FY2020: 22.8%

- FY2021: -11.3%

- FY2022: 7.2%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 18.8%

- FY2025: 18.8%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 32.81×

- Book value created per share: $26.09

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $0.80

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 97

- FY2017: 93

- FY2018: 89

- FY2019: 84

- FY2020: 83

- FY2021: 93

- FY2022: 88

- FY2023: 84

- FY2024: 82

- FY2025: 82

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Deposits, annualized growth: 10.3%

- Known restatement years: 0

- Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 3

## Holders

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever · "Morgan Stanley Sees Wealth, AI Financing and Deal Rebound Powering Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · net income +26.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.316Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever

- 2025-07-16: Morgan Stanley earnings top estimates on increased trading revenue ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-q2-2025.html))

- 2025-10-15: Morgan Stanley profit beats estimates on dealmaking boost, shares soar ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-profit-beats-estimates-190339247.html))

- 2026-01-15: Morgan Stanley Fourth-Quarter Results Top Street Views Amid Investment Banking Revenue Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-fourth-quarter-results-161800051.html))

- 2026-02-23: Morgan Stanley’s Advisor Recruiting Costs Pile Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a08ba13d-8c43-34ff-8c32-f4e946223c81/morgan-stanley%E2%80%99s-advisor.html))

- 2026-04-15: Morgan Stanley's Quarterly Results Beat Estimates Amid Investment Banking, Trading Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-apos-quarterly-results-145838187.html))

- 2026-07-15: AI stock frenzy drives record revenue at Morgan Stanley, capping big bank earnings blowout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/ai-stock-frenzy-drives-record-revenue-at-morgan-stanley-capping-big-bank-earnings-blowout-122105807.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +26.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $5.5B 

- FY2017: $5.6B 

- FY2018: $8.2B 

- FY2019: $8.5B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $8.5B 

- FY2024: $13B 

- FY2025: $16B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are USD 70.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm#000089542126000086 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 70645000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 12.1% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.0929902755267423],[2017,0.0934042055293685],[2018,0.11516212619931368],[2019,0.11773330198204678],[2020,0.12328863631026465],[2021,0.18151231183331673],[2022,0.13892000896258122],[2023,0.11331632924172379],[2024,0.1573409381453437],[2025,0.18278662706983442]]; median 0.12051096914615572. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,1746000000],[2017,2085000000],[2018,2375000000],[2019,2627000000],[2020,2739000000],[2021,4171000000],[2022,5401000000],[2023,5763000000],[2024,6138000000],[2025,6593000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 5835000000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Price 182.1; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 3.9875785715174725; discount 0.1; growth 0.07810225935465419. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.57 per share

- 2016-11: $41.36 per share

- 2016-12: $42.25 per share

- 2017-01: $42.49 per share

- 2017-02: $45.67 per share

- 2017-03: $42.84 per share

- 2017-04: $43.37 per share

- 2017-05: $41.74 per share

- 2017-06: $44.56 per share

- 2017-07: $46.90 per share

- 2017-08: $45.50 per share

- 2017-09: $48.17 per share

- 2017-10: $50.00 per share

- 2017-11: $51.61 per share

- 2017-12: $52.47 per share

- 2018-01: $56.55 per share

- 2018-02: $56.02 per share

- 2018-03: $53.96 per share

- 2018-04: $51.62 per share

- 2018-05: $50.14 per share

- 2018-06: $47.40 per share

- 2018-07: $50.56 per share

- 2018-08: $48.83 per share

- 2018-09: $46.57 per share

- 2018-10: $45.66 per share

- 2018-11: $44.39 per share

- 2018-12: $39.65 per share

- 2019-01: $42.30 per share

- 2019-02: $41.98 per share

- 2019-03: $42.20 per share

- 2019-04: $48.25 per share

- 2019-05: $40.69 per share

- 2019-06: $43.81 per share

- 2019-07: $44.56 per share

- 2019-08: $41.49 per share

- 2019-09: $42.67 per share

- 2019-10: $46.05 per share

- 2019-11: $49.48 per share

- 2019-12: $51.12 per share

- 2020-01: $52.26 per share

- 2020-02: $45.03 per share

- 2020-03: $34.00 per share

- 2020-04: $39.43 per share

- 2020-05: $44.20 per share

- 2020-06: $48.30 per share

- 2020-07: $48.88 per share

- 2020-08: $52.26 per share

- 2020-09: $48.35 per share

- 2020-10: $48.15 per share

- 2020-11: $61.83 per share

- 2020-12: $68.53 per share

- 2021-01: $67.05 per share

- 2021-02: $76.87 per share

- 2021-03: $77.66 per share

- 2021-04: $82.55 per share

- 2021-05: $90.95 per share

- 2021-06: $91.69 per share

- 2021-07: $95.98 per share

- 2021-08: $104.43 per share

- 2021-09: $97.31 per share

- 2021-10: $102.78 per share

- 2021-11: $94.82 per share

- 2021-12: $98.16 per share

- 2022-01: $102.54 per share

- 2022-02: $90.74 per share

- 2022-03: $87.40 per share

- 2022-04: $80.59 per share

- 2022-05: $86.14 per share

- 2022-06: $76.06 per share

- 2022-07: $84.30 per share

- 2022-08: $85.22 per share

- 2022-09: $79.01 per share

- 2022-10: $82.17 per share

- 2022-11: $93.07 per share

- 2022-12: $85.02 per share

- 2023-01: $97.33 per share

- 2023-02: $96.50 per share

- 2023-03: $87.80 per share

- 2023-04: $89.97 per share

- 2023-05: $81.76 per share

- 2023-06: $85.40 per share

- 2023-07: $91.56 per share

- 2023-08: $85.15 per share

- 2023-09: $81.67 per share

- 2023-10: $70.82 per share

- 2023-11: $79.34 per share

- 2023-12: $93.25 per share

- 2024-01: $87.24 per share

- 2024-02: $86.04 per share

- 2024-03: $94.16 per share

- 2024-04: $90.84 per share

- 2024-05: $97.84 per share

- 2024-06: $97.19 per share

- 2024-07: $103.21 per share

- 2024-08: $103.61 per share

- 2024-09: $104.24 per share

- 2024-10: $116.25 per share

- 2024-11: $131.61 per share

- 2024-12: $125.72 per share

- 2025-01: $138.43 per share

- 2025-02: $133.11 per share

- 2025-03: $116.67 per share

- 2025-04: $115.42 per share

- 2025-05: $128.03 per share

- 2025-06: $140.86 per share

- 2025-07: $142.46 per share

- 2025-08: $150.48 per share

- 2025-09: $158.96 per share

- 2025-10: $164.00 per share

- 2025-11: $169.66 per share

- 2025-12: $177.53 per share

- 2026-01: $182.80 per share

- 2026-02: $166.51 per share

- 2026-03: $164.57 per share

- 2026-04: $190.59 per share

- 2026-05: $208.00 per share

- 2026-06: $209.04 per share

- 2026-07: $210.42 per share

- 2026-08: $213.32 per share

- 2026-09: $188.08 per share

- 2026-10: $186.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $11.03 per share, central $13.22 per share, high $16.48 per share

- FY2017: low $11.71 per share, central $14.02 per share, high $17.48 per share

- FY2018: low $20.29 per share, central $25.36 per share, high $33.81 per share

- FY2019: low $26.00 per share, central $32.50 per share, high $43.34 per share

- FY2020: low $30.93 per share, central $38.66 per share, high $51.55 per share

- FY2021: low $27.85 per share, central $34.81 per share, high $46.41 per share

- FY2022: low $42.48 per share, central $53.10 per share, high $70.80 per share

- FY2023: low $56.36 per share, central $70.45 per share, high $93.94 per share

- FY2024: low $64.43 per share, central $80.54 per share, high $107.39 per share

- FY2025: low $74.92 per share, central $93.65 per share, high $124.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.