# Microsoft (MSFT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MSFT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:24.648Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $539.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $221.68 per share, central $319.04 per share, high $373.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $319.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:24.648Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.2% at the stated quote. About 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.37×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.45×

- FY2025: 0.46×

- FY2026: 0.47×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 33.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 67.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 53.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 13.9%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 82.4%

- FY2024: 63.5%

- FY2025: 55.7%

- FY2026: 33.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.85×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $400B

- Net income, five-year total: $469B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 53.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 0.90×

- FY2026: 0.68×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 426.4% vs 55.7%

- Per-share earnings: 2.56 to 13.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $2.24T

- Cumulative retained earnings: $326B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 23.2%

- Per-share value change: $11.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $128B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $656B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 55.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $3.25

- FY2018: $2.13

- FY2019: $5.06

- FY2020: $5.76

- FY2021: $8.05

- FY2022: $9.65

- FY2023: $9.68

- FY2024: $11.80

- FY2025: $13.64

- FY2026: $17.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.37×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.31×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.8%

- FY2018: -10.6%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -4.6%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -3.7%

- FY2024: -5.9%

- FY2025: -5.5%

- FY2026: -6.5%

## Holders

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Massey](https://gigainvestors.com/AP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Ron Muhlenkamp](https://gigainvestors.com/MUHL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Vinall](https://gigainvestors.com/RVC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dennis Hong](https://gigainvestors.com/SP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stuart McLaughlin](https://gigainvestors.com/TFP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ackman](https://gigainvestors.com/psc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.2% a year for ten years · "Microsoft’s new OpenAI deal strengthens long-term Azure growth outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +17.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.580Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-02: Microsoft (MSFT) Skyrockets $200 Billion on Blowout Azure and AI Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-msft-skyrockets-200-billion-122832080.html))

- 2026-01-30: Microsoft Slides 10%, $357 Billion Wiped After AI Spend Surges, Azure Slows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-slides-10-357-billion-114102582.html))

- 2026-04-30: Microsoft's Aggressive Capex Plans Could Keep Free Cash Flow Under Pressure, Truist Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/microsoft-apos-aggressive-capex-plans-195252667.html))

- 2026-05-28: Microsoft Stock Climbs as AI Revenue Run Rate Tops $37 Billion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-stock-climbs-ai-revenue-122150982.html))

- 2026-06-26: Microsoft stock hits one-year low amid AI spending concerns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-stock-hits-one-low-143821813.html))

- 2026-07-29: Microsoft's Fourth-Quarter Results Beat Estimates as Azure Revenue Rallies 43% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-apos-fourth-quarter-results-204452554.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +17.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm; observed 2026-07-29.

- FY2017: $97B 

- FY2018: $110B 

- FY2019: $126B 

- FY2020: $143B 

- FY2021: $168B 

- FY2022: $198B 

- FY2023: $212B 

- FY2024: $245B 

- FY2025: $282B 

- FY2026: $332B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 67.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm; observed 2026-07-29.

- FY2017: 64.5% 

- FY2018: 65.2% 

- FY2019: 65.9% 

- FY2020: 67.8% 

- FY2021: 68.9% 

- FY2022: 68.4% 

- FY2023: 68.9% 

- FY2024: 69.8% 

- FY2025: 68.8% 

- FY2026: 67.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Gets 42.2% of sales from Productivity and Business Processes; keeps 67.9 cents per sales dollar after product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); FY2026: revenue 331839000000; grossProfit 225465000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); y impacted by net gains from investments in OpenAI, which resulted in an increase in net income and diluted EPS of $5.0 billion and $0.67, respectively. Prior year net income and diluted EPS were negatively impacted by net losses from investments in OpenAI, which resulted in a decrease in net income and diluted EPS of $3.6 billion and $0.49, respectively. SEGMENT RESULTS OF OPERATIONS (In millions, except percentages) 2026 2025 Percentage Change Productivity and Business Processes Revenue $ 139,996 $ 120,810 16% Cost of revenue 25,017 22,422 12% Operating expenses 31,100 28,615 9% Operating income $ 83,879 $ 69,773 20% Intelligent Cloud Revenue $ 137,791 $ 106,265 30% Cost of revenue 57,876 40,171 44% Operating expenses 22,943 21,505 7% Operating income $ 56,972 $ 44,589 28% More Personal Computing Revenue $ 54,052 $ 54,649 (1)% Cost of revenue 23,481 25,238 (7)% Operating expenses 16,185 15,245 6% Operating income $ 14,386 $ 14,166 2% Total Revenue $ 331,839 $ 281,724 18% Cost of revenue 106,374 87,831 21% Operating expenses 70,228 65,365 7% Operating income $ 155,237 $ 128,528 21% Reportable Segments Fiscal Year 2026 Compared with Fiscal Year 

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 67.9% to 69.8% during 2024–26; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 69.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 68.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 67.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,4.264435875203061],[2018,0.1385051602786186],[2019,7.954075772240944],[2020,4.691926028701906],[2021,2.02735660735181],[2022,1.3046526726789445],[2023,0.8240182854664089],[2024,0.635285811194648],[2025,0.5571963134638902],[2026,0.33393331991599934]]; median 1.0643354790726767. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Microsoft 365 commercial cloud revenue per user grew; commercial seats rose 6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); tal Revenue $ 331,839 $ 281,724 18% Cost of revenue 106,374 87,831 21% Operating expenses 70,228 65,365 7% Operating income $ 155,237 $ 128,528 21% Reportable Segments Fiscal Year 2026 Compared with Fiscal Year 2025 Productivity and Business Processes Revenue increased $19.2 billion or 16%. • Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased $14.2 billion or 16%. Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17% with growth in revenue per user driven by Microsoft 365 Copilot and Microsoft 365 E5. Microsoft 365 Commercial seats grew 6% driven by small and medium businesses and frontline worker offerings. Microsoft 365 Commercial products revenue grew 13% driven by growth in the Windows Commercial on-premises components of Microsoft 365 suite sales, as well as an increase in Office 2024 transactional purchasing. • Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services revenue increased $1.8 billion or 24%. Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue grew 28% driven by growth in revenue per user and Microsoft 365 Consumer subscriber growth of 7%. • LinkedIn revenue increased $2.0 billion or 11% with growth across all lines of [Separate filing excerpt] Operating expenses 70,228 65,365 7% Operating income $ 155,237 $ 128,528 21% Reportable Segments Fiscal Year 2026 Compared with Fiscal Year 2025 Productivity and Business Processes Revenue increased $19.2 billion or 16%. • Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased $14.2 billion or 16%. Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17% with growth in revenue per user driven by Microsoft 365 Copilot and Microsoft 365 E5. Microsoft 365 Commercial seats grew 6% driven by small and medium businesses and frontline worker offerings. Microsoft 365 Commercial products revenue grew 13% driven by growth in the Windows Commercial on-premises components of Microsoft 365 suite sales, as well as an increase in Office 2024 transactional purchasing. • Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services revenue increased $1.8 billion or 24%. Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue grew 28% driven by growth in revenue per user and Microsoft 365 Consumer subscriber growth of 7%. • LinkedIn revenue increased $2.0 billion or 11% with growth across all lines of business. • Dynamics products and cloud services revenue inc

### Where the cash goes

Spends 37.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 53.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 8129000000; owner earnings 26138000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2018: growth capex 1371000000; upkeep 10261000000; owner earnings 16571000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08273489831633576.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2019: growth capex 2243000000; upkeep 11682000000; owner earnings 39240000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.057161060142711516.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2020: growth capex 2645000000; upkeep 12796000000; owner earnings 44281000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05973216503692329.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2021: growth capex 7684948413.614685; upkeep 12937051586.385315; owner earnings 60019948413.614685. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12803990367761567.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2022: growth capex 9426000000; upkeep 14460000000; owner earnings 72738000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12958838571310732.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2023: growth capex 5404421360.989536; upkeep 22702578639.010464; owner earnings 63519421360.98953. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08508297533561386.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2024: growth capex 15414797511.15979; upkeep 29062202488.84021; owner earnings 81360797511.15979. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1894622223810605.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); FY2025: growth capex 20701749468.535164; upkeep 43849250531.464836; owner earnings 92135749468.53516. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2246874811129085.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); FY2026: growth capex 34309156703.53978; upkeep 81638843296.46022; owner earnings 90644156703.53978. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.37850378834403076.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); Incremental return on capital 0.5360645449456167, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); Dividend observations: [[2017,11845000000],[2018,12699000000],[2019,13811000000],[2020,15137000000],[2021,16521000000],[2022,18135000000],[2023,19800000000],[2024,21771000000],[2025,24082000000],[2026,26445000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); FY2026: cash repurchases 22271000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MSFT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.079 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may have additional tax liabilities." (SEC filing, Jul 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm (filed 2026-07-29); We may have additional tax liabilities.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-29); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.258693287049633. Price 539.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.34843379508299 → FY2026 12.162103408498561. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $59.92 per share

- 2016-11: $60.26 per share

- 2016-12: $62.14 per share

- 2017-01: $64.65 per share

- 2017-02: $63.98 per share

- 2017-03: $65.86 per share

- 2017-04: $68.46 per share

- 2017-05: $69.84 per share

- 2017-06: $68.93 per share

- 2017-07: $72.70 per share

- 2017-08: $74.77 per share

- 2017-09: $74.49 per share

- 2017-10: $83.18 per share

- 2017-11: $84.17 per share

- 2017-12: $85.54 per share

- 2018-01: $95.01 per share

- 2018-02: $93.77 per share

- 2018-03: $91.27 per share

- 2018-04: $93.52 per share

- 2018-05: $98.84 per share

- 2018-06: $98.61 per share

- 2018-07: $106.08 per share

- 2018-08: $112.33 per share

- 2018-09: $114.37 per share

- 2018-10: $106.81 per share

- 2018-11: $110.89 per share

- 2018-12: $101.57 per share

- 2019-01: $104.43 per share

- 2019-02: $112.03 per share

- 2019-03: $117.94 per share

- 2019-04: $130.60 per share

- 2019-05: $123.68 per share

- 2019-06: $133.96 per share

- 2019-07: $136.27 per share

- 2019-08: $137.86 per share

- 2019-09: $139.03 per share

- 2019-10: $143.37 per share

- 2019-11: $151.38 per share

- 2019-12: $157.70 per share

- 2020-01: $170.23 per share

- 2020-02: $162.01 per share

- 2020-03: $157.71 per share

- 2020-04: $179.21 per share

- 2020-05: $183.25 per share

- 2020-06: $203.51 per share

- 2020-07: $205.01 per share

- 2020-08: $225.53 per share

- 2020-09: $210.33 per share

- 2020-10: $202.47 per share

- 2020-11: $214.07 per share

- 2020-12: $222.42 per share

- 2021-01: $231.96 per share

- 2021-02: $232.38 per share

- 2021-03: $235.77 per share

- 2021-04: $252.18 per share

- 2021-05: $249.68 per share

- 2021-06: $270.90 per share

- 2021-07: $284.91 per share

- 2021-08: $301.88 per share

- 2021-09: $281.92 per share

- 2021-10: $331.62 per share

- 2021-11: $330.59 per share

- 2021-12: $336.32 per share

- 2022-01: $310.98 per share

- 2022-02: $298.79 per share

- 2022-03: $308.31 per share

- 2022-04: $277.52 per share

- 2022-05: $271.87 per share

- 2022-06: $256.83 per share

- 2022-07: $280.74 per share

- 2022-08: $261.47 per share

- 2022-09: $232.90 per share

- 2022-10: $232.13 per share

- 2022-11: $255.14 per share

- 2022-12: $239.82 per share

- 2023-01: $247.81 per share

- 2023-02: $249.42 per share

- 2023-03: $288.30 per share

- 2023-04: $307.26 per share

- 2023-05: $328.39 per share

- 2023-06: $340.54 per share

- 2023-07: $335.92 per share

- 2023-08: $327.76 per share

- 2023-09: $315.75 per share

- 2023-10: $338.11 per share

- 2023-11: $378.91 per share

- 2023-12: $376.04 per share

- 2024-01: $397.58 per share

- 2024-02: $413.64 per share

- 2024-03: $420.72 per share

- 2024-04: $389.33 per share

- 2024-05: $415.13 per share

- 2024-06: $446.95 per share

- 2024-07: $418.35 per share

- 2024-08: $417.14 per share

- 2024-09: $430.30 per share

- 2024-10: $406.35 per share

- 2024-11: $423.46 per share

- 2024-12: $421.50 per share

- 2025-01: $415.06 per share

- 2025-02: $396.99 per share

- 2025-03: $375.39 per share

- 2025-04: $395.26 per share

- 2025-05: $460.36 per share

- 2025-06: $497.41 per share

- 2025-07: $533.50 per share

- 2025-08: $506.69 per share

- 2025-09: $517.95 per share

- 2025-10: $517.81 per share

- 2025-11: $492.01 per share

- 2025-12: $483.62 per share

- 2026-01: $430.29 per share

- 2026-02: $392.74 per share

- 2026-03: $370.17 per share

- 2026-04: $407.78 per share

- 2026-05: $450.24 per share

- 2026-06: $373.02 per share

- 2026-07: $464.72 per share

- 2026-08: $507.29 per share

- 2026-09: $512.90 per share

- 2026-10: $543.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $57.35 per share, central $71.96 per share, high $81.46 per share

- FY2018: low $50.22 per share, central $56.54 per share, high $63.05 per share

- FY2019: low $63.12 per share, central $80.89 per share, high $91.95 per share

- FY2020: low $83.80 per share, central $105.27 per share, high $120.29 per share

- FY2021: low $108.51 per share, central $140.47 per share, high $161.73 per share

- FY2022: low $132.43 per share, central $187.05 per share, high $217.52 per share

- FY2023: low $136.58 per share, central $184.11 per share, high $213.51 per share

- FY2024: low $167.63 per share, central $240.20 per share, high $280.67 per share

- FY2025: low $193.80 per share, central $277.25 per share, high $323.79 per share

- FY2026: low $220.86 per share, central $317.86 per share, high $371.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-29.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Microsoft

MSFT · US

S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100 · Dow 30

A wonderful business at too high a price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price
$539.44
Buy up to
$319.04
Expected / yr
7.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What could break it
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 14.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

10y median
41.7%
Worst year
30.1%
Latest · 2026
46.8%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median >100% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 33.4% (minimum 10%).

10y median
>100%
Worst year
13.9%
Latest · 2026
33.4%

Each $1 of profit left $0.85 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Five-year totals
0.85×
Annual median
0.90×
Latest · 2026
0.68×

Per-share value rose from 2.56 to 13.64, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

10y median
$8.85
Worst year
$2.13
Latest · 2026
$17.95

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.5% of assets (limit 10%).

10y median
-5.5%
Worst year
-3.7%
Latest · 2026
-6.5%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 39.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 11.8 USD.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value range$221.68 – $373.34
Buy at or belowCentral value $319.04
Discount to value1 − 539.44 / 319.04 = -69.1%
Return / yearAbout 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsOwner cash USD 14.62/share; 12.0% growth fades over 10 years to 3.0%; excess cash USD 9.45/share today.
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
Revenue$332B
$332B$020172026
FY2017 · Revenue: $97B; FY2018 · Revenue: $110B; FY2019 · Revenue: $126B; FY2020 · Revenue: $143B; FY2021 · Revenue: $168B; FY2022 · Revenue: $198B; FY2023 · Revenue: $212B; FY2024 · Revenue: $245B; FY2025 · Revenue: $282B; FY2026 · Revenue: $332B
Revenue
Owner earnings$91B
$92B$020172026
FY2017 · Owner earnings: $26B; FY2018 · Owner earnings: $17B; FY2019 · Owner earnings: $39B; FY2020 · Owner earnings: $44B; FY2021 · Owner earnings: $60B; FY2022 · Owner earnings: $73B; FY2023 · Owner earnings: $64B; FY2024 · Owner earnings: $81B; FY2025 · Owner earnings: $92B; FY2026 · Owner earnings: $91B
Owner earnings
Operating margin46.8%
46.8%0.0%20172026
FY2017 · Operating margin: 30.1%; FY2018 · Operating margin: 31.8%; FY2019 · Operating margin: 34.1%; FY2020 · Operating margin: 37.0%; FY2021 · Operating margin: 41.6%; FY2022 · Operating margin: 42.1%; FY2023 · Operating margin: 41.8%; FY2024 · Operating margin: 44.6%; FY2025 · Operating margin: 45.6%; FY2026 · Operating margin: 46.8%
Operating margin
Net cash / debt-$52B
$66B-$52B20172026
FY2017 · Net cash / debt: $47B; FY2018 · Net cash / debt: $52B; FY2019 · Net cash / debt: $55B; FY2020 · Net cash / debt: $66B; FY2021 · Net cash / debt: $63B; FY2022 · Net cash / debt: $43B; FY2023 · Net cash / debt: $51B; FY2024 · Net cash / debt: $8.4B; FY2025 · Net cash / debt: $34B; FY2026 · Net cash / debt: -$52B
Net cash / debt
Diluted shares7.5B
7.8B020172026
FY2017 · Diluted shares: 7.8B; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 7.8B; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 7.8B; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 7.7B; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 7.6B; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 7.5B; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 7.5B; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 7.5B; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 7.5B; FY2026 · Diluted shares: 7.5B
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·