# Motorola Solutions (MSI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MSI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:25.471Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $456.39 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $151.15 per share, central $179.01 per share, high $207.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $179.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:25.471Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.23×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.25×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 77.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 53.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 50.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 87.1%

- FY2019: 69.5%

- FY2020: 67.1%

- FY2021: 81.3%

- FY2022: 73.8%

- FY2023: 84.5%

- FY2024: 82.1%

- FY2025: 53.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 50.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $8.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 316.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.13×

- FY2023: 1.10×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.12×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 87.1% vs 82.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.02 to 9.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: $50B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.0%

- Per-share value change: $6.91

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.09

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $9.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $11B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 87.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 82.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.24

- FY2017: -$0.95

- FY2018: $5.62

- FY2019: $4.94

- FY2020: $5.45

- FY2021: $7.17

- FY2022: $7.93

- FY2023: $9.93

- FY2024: $9.23

- FY2025: $12.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.32×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 4.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.2%

- FY2017: -18.3%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -9.0%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -3.5%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Leon Cooperman](https://gigainvestors.com/oa): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.9% a year for ten years · "Motorola Solutions Q2 Earnings and Guidance Signal Stronger Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +4.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.767Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Motorola Solutions forecasts weak second-quarter profit amid tariff uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/motorola-solutions-forecasts-weak-second-212520581.html))

- 2025-08-08: Motorola Solutions Q2 Results Top Estimates; Lifts FY25 Outlook ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/motorola-solutions-q2-results-top-estimates-lifts-fy25-outlook))

- 2026-02-12: MSI Q4 Deep Dive: AI-Driven Solutions and Backlog Expansion Propel Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/msi-q4-deep-dive-ai-053052668.html))

- 2026-08-06: MSI Q2 Earnings Top Estimates on Strong Demand, Record Backlog ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/msi-q2-earnings-top-estimates-132000998.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $6.4B 

- FY2018: $7.3B 

- FY2019: $7.9B 

- FY2020: $7.4B 

- FY2021: $8.2B 

- FY2022: $9.1B 

- FY2023: $10.0B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 50%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 47.4% 

- FY2018: 47.4% 

- FY2019: 49.8% 

- FY2020: 48.7% 

- FY2021: 49.4% 

- FY2022: 46.4% 

- FY2023: 49.8% 

- FY2024: 51.0% 

- FY2025: 50.2% 

- FY2026: 50.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in communication equipment; annual sales are USD 11.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 11682000000; grossProfit 5862000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MSI.US: Motorola Solutions, Inc. provides public safety, government, defense, and enterprise security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services. The Products and Systems Integration segment offers a portfolio of infrastructure, devices, accessories, and the implementation and integration of systems, devices, software, and applications for government, including defense, public safety, and enterprise customers who operate private communications systems and video security solutions, as well as manage a mobile workforce. This segment also provides mission critical networks, and video security and access control technologies, including two-way portable and vehicle-mounted radios, video cameras, and accessories; communications network core and central processing software, base stations, consoles, and repeaters; and video analytics, network video management hardware and software, and access control solutions. The Software and Services segment offers public safety and enterprise command center, unified communications applications, mobile video equipment, and video software solutions; repair, technical support, and maintenance services; and monitoring, software updates, and cybersecurity services to government, public safety, and commercial communications networks. It serves hospitality; manufacturing; military and defence; police; air transportation; fire and rescue; stadium; emergency medical services; mining; oil and gas; transportation and logistics; utilities; education; retail; and healthcare industries. The company was formerly known as Motorola, Inc. and changed its name to Motorola Solutions, Inc. in January 2011. Motorola Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.8% to 51% during 2023–25; it earns 77.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.4242320819112628],[2018,0.8709822279073566],[2019,0.6947855175127903],[2020,0.6714454121597939],[2021,0.813217699988136],[2022,0.7382942333642232],[2023,0.8451138821733045],[2024,0.8211719596050726],[2025,0.5354364084449316],[2026,0.5042063187872912]]; median 0.7757559666761795. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 271000000; owner earnings 584000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 197000000; owner earnings 1129000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 248000000; owner earnings 1014000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 217000000; owner earnings 1141000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 243000000; owner earnings 1440000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 256000000; owner earnings 1546461594.732992. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 253000000; owner earnings 1873000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 257000000; owner earnings 1656000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 265000000; owner earnings 2314000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,280000000],[2017,307000000],[2018,337000000],[2019,379000000],[2020,436000000],[2021,482000000],[2022,530000000],[2023,589000000],[2024,654000000],[2025,728000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 1154000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MSI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.395 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"A portion of our business is dependent upon U.S. government contracts and grants" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); A portion of our business is dependent upon U.S. government contracts and grants

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18786159942653124. Price 456.39; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.898909811694747 → FY2025 13.692307692307692. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.58 per share

- 2016-11: $80.25 per share

- 2016-12: $82.89 per share

- 2017-01: $80.71 per share

- 2017-02: $78.97 per share

- 2017-03: $86.22 per share

- 2017-04: $85.97 per share

- 2017-05: $83.57 per share

- 2017-06: $86.74 per share

- 2017-07: $90.68 per share

- 2017-08: $88.12 per share

- 2017-09: $84.87 per share

- 2017-10: $90.54 per share

- 2017-11: $94.11 per share

- 2017-12: $90.34 per share

- 2018-01: $99.46 per share

- 2018-02: $106.15 per share

- 2018-03: $105.30 per share

- 2018-04: $109.83 per share

- 2018-05: $107.34 per share

- 2018-06: $116.37 per share

- 2018-07: $121.30 per share

- 2018-08: $128.36 per share

- 2018-09: $130.14 per share

- 2018-10: $122.56 per share

- 2018-11: $131.25 per share

- 2018-12: $115.04 per share

- 2019-01: $116.91 per share

- 2019-02: $143.12 per share

- 2019-03: $140.42 per share

- 2019-04: $144.91 per share

- 2019-05: $149.95 per share

- 2019-06: $166.73 per share

- 2019-07: $165.96 per share

- 2019-08: $180.91 per share

- 2019-09: $170.41 per share

- 2019-10: $166.32 per share

- 2019-11: $167.30 per share

- 2019-12: $161.14 per share

- 2020-01: $177.00 per share

- 2020-02: $165.68 per share

- 2020-03: $132.92 per share

- 2020-04: $143.81 per share

- 2020-05: $135.33 per share

- 2020-06: $140.13 per share

- 2020-07: $139.80 per share

- 2020-08: $154.75 per share

- 2020-09: $156.81 per share

- 2020-10: $158.06 per share

- 2020-11: $171.53 per share

- 2020-12: $170.06 per share

- 2021-01: $167.55 per share

- 2021-02: $175.48 per share

- 2021-03: $188.05 per share

- 2021-04: $188.30 per share

- 2021-05: $205.31 per share

- 2021-06: $216.85 per share

- 2021-07: $223.92 per share

- 2021-08: $244.22 per share

- 2021-09: $232.32 per share

- 2021-10: $248.59 per share

- 2021-11: $253.18 per share

- 2021-12: $271.70 per share

- 2022-01: $231.94 per share

- 2022-02: $220.43 per share

- 2022-03: $242.20 per share

- 2022-04: $213.69 per share

- 2022-05: $219.74 per share

- 2022-06: $209.60 per share

- 2022-07: $238.59 per share

- 2022-08: $243.41 per share

- 2022-09: $223.97 per share

- 2022-10: $249.71 per share

- 2022-11: $272.20 per share

- 2022-12: $257.71 per share

- 2023-01: $257.01 per share

- 2023-02: $262.81 per share

- 2023-03: $286.13 per share

- 2023-04: $291.40 per share

- 2023-05: $281.92 per share

- 2023-06: $293.28 per share

- 2023-07: $286.63 per share

- 2023-08: $283.57 per share

- 2023-09: $272.24 per share

- 2023-10: $278.46 per share

- 2023-11: $322.87 per share

- 2023-12: $313.09 per share

- 2024-01: $319.50 per share

- 2024-02: $330.39 per share

- 2024-03: $354.98 per share

- 2024-04: $339.15 per share

- 2024-05: $364.91 per share

- 2024-06: $386.05 per share

- 2024-07: $398.92 per share

- 2024-08: $442.04 per share

- 2024-09: $449.63 per share

- 2024-10: $449.35 per share

- 2024-11: $499.70 per share

- 2024-12: $462.23 per share

- 2025-01: $469.25 per share

- 2025-02: $440.22 per share

- 2025-03: $437.81 per share

- 2025-04: $440.39 per share

- 2025-05: $415.38 per share

- 2025-06: $420.46 per share

- 2025-07: $438.98 per share

- 2025-08: $472.46 per share

- 2025-09: $457.29 per share

- 2025-10: $406.71 per share

- 2025-11: $369.68 per share

- 2025-12: $383.32 per share

- 2026-01: $402.54 per share

- 2026-02: $482.26 per share

- 2026-03: $433.97 per share

- 2026-04: $439.03 per share

- 2026-05: $403.28 per share

- 2026-06: $415.29 per share

- 2026-07: $435.75 per share

- 2026-08: $485.30 per share

- 2026-09: $445.97 per share

- 2026-10: $449.01 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $56.64 per share, central $63.73 per share, high $73.16 per share

- FY2017: low $50.59 per share, central $56.65 per share, high $64.72 per share

- FY2018: low $54.32 per share, central $60.93 per share, high $69.73 per share

- FY2019: low $55.23 per share, central $62.18 per share, high $71.44 per share

- FY2020: low $66.19 per share, central $74.44 per share, high $85.43 per share

- FY2021: low $88.95 per share, central $99.86 per share, high $114.38 per share

- FY2022: low $95.79 per share, central $108.09 per share, high $124.45 per share

- FY2023: low $116.30 per share, central $131.13 per share, high $150.87 per share

- FY2024: low $128.52 per share, central $144.72 per share, high $166.28 per share

- FY2025: low $144.20 per share, central $170.24 per share, high $197.26 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:09.422Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68505/000006850526000010/msi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.