# ArcelorMittal (MT.AS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MT.AS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:57.386Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 56.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 21.85 per share, central EUR 24.28 per share, high EUR 27.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 24.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:57.386Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.6% at the stated quote. About 5.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.03×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: -0.02×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.5%

- FY2017: 11.3%

- FY2018: 13.8%

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -2.1%

- FY2021: 29.8%

- FY2022: 16.9%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 5.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $23B

- Net income, five-year total: $30B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 91.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: -1.36×

- FY2024: -0.48×

- FY2025: 0.43×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.3% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 1.74 to 1.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -8.7%

- Market cap gain: $9.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $34B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -8.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -0.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.01

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.74

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 5.5%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $38B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.74

- FY2017: $4.46

- FY2018: $5.05

- FY2019: -$2.36

- FY2020: -$0.48

- FY2021: $14.48

- FY2022: $10.72

- FY2023: $1.11

- FY2024: $1.73

- FY2025: $4.13

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.63×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.59×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.2%

- FY2017: 0.0%

- FY2018: 1.0%

- FY2019: -9.6%

- FY2020: -5.7%

- FY2021: 5.6%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -1.9%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years · "ArcelorMittal beats earnings forecasts as EU steel measures bear fruit" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.469Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-12: ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) Is Up 6.2% After Strong Q3, Iron Ore Gains and Regulatory Shifts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arcelormittal-enxtam-mt-6-2-100804679.html))

- 2026-02-06: Assessing ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) Valuation After Earnings Beat Return To Profit And Higher Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-arcelormittal-enxtam-mt-valuation-070728716.html))

- 2026-03-13: ArcelorMittal Faces Ukraine Power Strains And CBAM Pressure On Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arcelormittal-faces-ukraine-power-strains-061631476.html))

- 2026-04-30: ArcelorMittal beats earnings forecasts as EU steel measures bear fruit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arcelormittal-beats-earnings-forecasts-eu-052053154.html))

- 2026-05-11: ArcelorMittal's Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/arcelormittals-q1-earnings-top-estimates-120500915.html))

- 2026-09-25: ArcelorMittal Faces $1 Billion Blow As Missile Strikes Derail Ukraine Operations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/arcelormittal-faces-1-billion-blow-102513415.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2EULGUTUI56JI9SAL165/2024-12-31/ESEF/LU/0/mt-2024-12-31-en/reports/mt-2024-12-31-en.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2017: $69B 

- FY2018: $76B 

- FY2019: $71B 

- FY2020: $53B 

- FY2021: $77B 

- FY2022: $80B 

- FY2023: $68B 

- FY2024: $62B 

- FY2025: $61B 

- FY2026: $63B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2EULGUTUI56JI9SAL165/2024-12-31/ESEF/LU/0/mt-2024-12-31-en/reports/mt-2024-12-31-en.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 11.2% 

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 11.8% 

- FY2019: 95.7% 

- FY2020: 7.8% 

- FY2021: 25.3% 

- FY2022: 17.7% 

- FY2023: 11.1% 

- FY2024: 10.0% 

- FY2025: 9.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are USD 61.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 61352000000; grossProfit 5906000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MT.AS: ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It offers semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, such as blooms and billets; finished long products consisting of bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company also provides mining products, such as iron ore lumps, fines, concentrate, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking coal. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, and distributors. The company operates iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine, as well as in India and in Canada. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.6% to 11.1% during 2023–25; it earns 6.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 11.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2EULGUTUI56JI9SAL165/2024-12-31/ESEF/LU/0/mt-2024-12-31-en/reports/mt-2024-12-31-en.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07500415973377704],[2017,0.11323311313168384],[2018,0.13792157938031258],[2019,-0.024478508956550207],[2020,-0.020890026822726164],[2021,0.2979202213953596],[2022,0.1686321651094183],[2023,0.03577891720705776],[2024,0.042368208581949944],[2025,0.056180389031212745]]; median 0.06559227438249489. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 272.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2444000000; owner earnings 2261000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2819000000; owner earnings 4723000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3305000000; owner earnings 5453000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 485000000; upkeep 2523000000; owner earnings 14780000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.032814614343707714.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 888000000; upkeep 2580000000; owner earnings 9090800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09768117217406609.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4513819206; owner earnings 1346980794. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,61000000],[2017,141000000],[2018,220000000],[2019,332000000],[2020,181000000],[2021,312000000],[2022,332000000],[2023,369000000],[2024,393000000],[2025,438164141]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 272681722 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 43.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MT.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 43.894 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17524207767435762. Price 56.68; FX 0.891837899543379; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4.507525662561982 → FY2025 1.7630638664921465. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 18.41 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 21.38 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 21.05 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 21.57 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 24.93 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 23.66 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 21.73 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 19.31 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 19.86 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 22.20 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 22.44 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 21.83 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 24.62 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 25.37 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 27.12 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 29.23 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 28.25 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 25.70 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 28.10 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 27.70 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 25.11 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 27.52 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 25.94 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 26.80 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 22.04 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 20.02 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 18.14 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 20.20 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 20.21 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 18.06 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 19.33 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 13.26 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 15.74 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 14.52 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 13.09 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 12.91 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 13.23 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 15.53 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 15.64 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 13.36 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 12.84 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 8.66 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 10.00 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 8.61 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 9.37 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 9.34 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 10.60 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 11.38 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 11.65 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 15.35 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 18.88 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 18.04 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 19.36 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 24.63 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 24.25 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 26.90 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 25.85 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 29.38 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 28.40 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 26.46 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 29.33 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 23.93 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 28.15 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 26.20 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 27.71 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 29.30 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 28.12 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 29.96 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 21.51 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 23.92 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 23.76 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 20.67 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 22.66 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 25.81 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 24.58 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 28.36 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 28.45 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 27.87 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 25.71 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 23.23 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 24.93 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 26.30 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 24.53 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 23.78 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 20.88 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 23.09 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 25.68 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 25.64 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 24.12 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 25.46 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 23.59 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 24.16 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 21.37 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 20.94 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 21.17 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 23.54 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 22.68 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 23.84 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 22.43 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 24.17 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 27.44 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 26.47 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 25.92 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 26.72 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 26.87 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 27.52 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 28.46 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 30.58 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 33.16 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 37.18 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 39.09 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 45.98 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 55.48 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 43.84 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 49.24 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 59.32 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 52.70 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 60.74 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 64.10 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 59.36 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 56.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2018: low EUR 29.50 per share, central EUR 33.49 per share, high EUR 38.80 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 30.24 per share, central EUR 33.97 per share, high EUR 38.94 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 20.53 per share, central EUR 22.90 per share, high EUR 26.05 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 52.14 per share, central EUR 58.99 per share, high EUR 68.11 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 72.34 per share, central EUR 81.21 per share, high EUR 93.01 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 22.15 per share, central EUR 24.52 per share, high EUR 27.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:43.597Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2EULGUTUI56JI9SAL165/2024-12-31/ESEF/LU/0/mt-2024-12-31-en/reports/mt-2024-12-31-en.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.