# Match Group (MTCH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MTCH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:26.982Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $44.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $30.00 per share, central $33.83 per share, high $38.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value $33.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:26.982Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 71.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -20.0%

- FY2017: 82.5%

- FY2018: 35.1%

- FY2019: 15.2%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 88.1%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.09×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.25×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 35.1% vs 127.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.35 to 2.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 11.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$6.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 11.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 35.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.52

- FY2017: $3.57

- FY2018: $3.18

- FY2019: $2.14

- FY2020: $0.63

- FY2021: $0.91

- FY2022: $1.23

- FY2023: $2.22

- FY2024: $1.98

- FY2025: $2.34

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -10.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 23.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.76×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.2%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: -5.3%

- FY2019: -6.1%

- FY2020: -21.0%

- FY2021: -12.5%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -10.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 71% since Oct 2021 · "Match Group forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates as payers continue to slide" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:13.114Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-08: Tinder parent Match cuts 13% of workforce, forecasts revenue above estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tinder-parent-match-cuts-13-113424074.html))

- 2025-08-05: Match Group shares rally 11% as revenue guidance tops expectations ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/match-group-shares-rally-11-as-revenue-guidance-tops-expectations-93CH-4171414))

- 2025-10-24: Market Chatter: Match Says Apple's 30% App Store Fee to Limit Growth in India ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-chatter-match-says-apple-122335301.html))

- 2025-11-04: Match Group forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates as payers continue to slide ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/match-group-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-211459864.html))

- 2026-02-03: Match Group forecasts upbeat revenue as turnaround gains traction ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/match-group-forecasts-upbeat-revenue-211423806.html))

- 2026-08-04: Match Group Revenue Falls Short of Estimates. The Stock Is Down 11%. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c54eefca-21ed-353f-8171-9931e7bd3d39/match-group-revenue-falls.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $3.3B 

- FY2018: $4.3B 

- FY2019: $2.1B 

- FY2020: $2.4B 

- FY2021: $3.0B 

- FY2022: $3.2B 

- FY2023: $3.4B 

- FY2024: $3.5B 

- FY2025: $3.5B 

- FY2026: $3.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 72.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 75.9% 

- FY2017: 80.3% 

- FY2018: 78.6% 

- FY2019: 74.3% 

- FY2020: 73.4% 

- FY2021: 71.9% 

- FY2022: 69.9% 

- FY2023: 71.6% 

- FY2024: 71.5% 

- FY2025: 72.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet content & information; annual sales are USD 3.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 3487197000; grossProfit 2538823000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTCH.US: Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and other brands, built to increase users' likelihood of connecting with others. It provides tailored services to meet the various preferences of its users. Match Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.5% to 72.8% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 71.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.19960309777347532],[2017,0.8252407203877798],[2018,0.3509805937121853],[2019,0.1520085375368243],[2020,1.6663694929970965],[2021,1.751053186699316],[2022,0.8813690888340449],[2023,1.2576563020899325],[2024,1.2794978455897825],[2025,2.058690558099933]]; median 1.0695126954619887. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 70% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.7186623970888388],[2022,0.6989619746095997],[2023,0.7164473574708189]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 5 of 10 years; bought back USD 788.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 78039000; cash acquisitions 18403000; owner earnings 31783000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5790202309410691.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 75523000; cash acquisitions 146553000; owner earnings 345809000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.42379752985029306.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 85634000; cash acquisitions 1136000; owner earnings 725086000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0015667107074195338.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 136652000; cash acquisitions 3759000; owner earnings 475473000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.007905811686468001.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 1105000; upkeep 41271000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 162329000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006807163230229965.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 37788539.98280898; upkeep 42182460.01719102; cash acquisitions 859905000; owner earnings 276942539.98280895. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.2414432973660627.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 49125000; cash acquisitions 25681000; owner earnings 452572000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05674456219120935.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 67412000; cash acquisitions 11567000; owner earnings 693665000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01667519624026007.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 50578000; owner earnings 588197000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 56765000; owner earnings 662341000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,400000000],[2017,1129091000],[2018,556372000],[2019,0],[2020,1064443000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,186255000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 788810000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTCH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.768 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Depends on Apple's app store to reach customers.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); ars and, in some cases, have rendered those services less attractive to both existing and potential

users. Further, certain of our Emerging brands are re-focusing their business model on intentioned daters, which

may have a negative impact on the number of users and revenue at those brands. If we are unable to maintain

or increase the size of our user base in the future, our revenue and other financial results may be further

adversely affected, including as a result of further rendering our services less attractive to both existing and

potential users.

In addition, on February 22, 2026, Apple removed our Azar app from the Apple App Store following a

February 6, 2026 update to Apple’s App Review Guidelines, meaning the app is no longer available for download

from the Apple App Store. While we continue to evaluate potential modifications to Azar in order to potentially

gain reinstatement to the Apple App Store, there can be no assurance that any efforts to apply for reinstatement

will be successful. If we are not successful in having the Azar app reinstated to the Apple App Store, we expect

there would be a decrease in the size of our user base over time, but we are uncertain how quickly this decrease

would occur and to what extent we will be able to offset this decrease with increases of users from other

sources, such as on Android or the desktop and mobile web versions of Azar. Further, the size of Azar’s user base

may be adversely affected by the timing of our ability, if any, to gain reinstatement of Azar to the Apple App

Store and the usefulness to users of any future version of the app that is able to gain reinstatement to the Apple

App Store, if at all. Any of these impacts from the removal of the Azar app from the Apple App Store could have

an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

The industry for social connection apps is competitive, with low switching costs and a consistent stream of new

services and entrants, and innovation by our competitors may disrupt our business.

The industry for social connection apps is competitive, with a consistent stream of new services and

entrants. Some of our competitors may enjoy better competitive positions in certain geographical regions, user

demographics, or other key areas that we currently serve or may serve in the future. These advantages could

enable these competitors to offer services that are more appealing to users and potential users than our services

or to respond more quickly and/or cost-effectively than us to new or changing opportunities.

In addition, within the industry for social connection apps generally, costs for consumers to switch between

services are low, and consumers have a propensity to try new approaches to connecting with people and to use

multiple services at the same time. As a result, new services, entrants, 

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05027294025565099. Price 44.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.9408499212616266 → FY2025 2.523444137536908. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $63.25 per share

- 2016-11: $62.97 per share

- 2016-12: $59.88 per share

- 2017-01: $60.83 per share

- 2017-02: $56.59 per share

- 2017-03: $57.19 per share

- 2017-04: $65.24 per share

- 2017-05: $68.22 per share

- 2017-06: $60.86 per share

- 2017-07: $63.91 per share

- 2017-08: $76.17 per share

- 2017-09: $81.21 per share

- 2017-10: $93.64 per share

- 2017-11: $102.96 per share

- 2017-12: $109.65 per share

- 2018-01: $122.36 per share

- 2018-02: $140.26 per share

- 2018-03: $155.63 per share

- 2018-04: $165.01 per share

- 2018-05: $144.11 per share

- 2018-06: $135.67 per share

- 2018-07: $126.49 per share

- 2018-08: $175.28 per share

- 2018-09: $202.80 per share

- 2018-10: $181.12 per share

- 2018-11: $141.03 per share

- 2018-12: $149.78 per share

- 2019-01: $187.32 per share

- 2019-02: $193.94 per share

- 2019-03: $198.25 per share

- 2019-04: $211.52 per share

- 2019-05: $240.41 per share

- 2019-06: $235.58 per share

- 2019-07: $263.67 per share

- 2019-08: $296.97 per share

- 2019-09: $250.18 per share

- 2019-10: $255.61 per share

- 2019-11: $246.82 per share

- 2019-12: $287.55 per share

- 2020-01: $273.93 per share

- 2020-02: $227.63 per share

- 2020-03: $231.27 per share

- 2020-04: $269.51 per share

- 2020-05: $311.82 per share

- 2020-06: $374.89 per share

- 2020-07: $102.70 per share

- 2020-08: $111.68 per share

- 2020-09: $110.65 per share

- 2020-10: $116.78 per share

- 2020-11: $139.21 per share

- 2020-12: $151.19 per share

- 2021-01: $139.86 per share

- 2021-02: $152.85 per share

- 2021-03: $137.38 per share

- 2021-04: $155.63 per share

- 2021-05: $143.38 per share

- 2021-06: $161.25 per share

- 2021-07: $159.27 per share

- 2021-08: $137.44 per share

- 2021-09: $156.99 per share

- 2021-10: $150.78 per share

- 2021-11: $129.99 per share

- 2021-12: $132.25 per share

- 2022-01: $112.70 per share

- 2022-02: $111.49 per share

- 2022-03: $108.74 per share

- 2022-04: $79.15 per share

- 2022-05: $78.78 per share

- 2022-06: $69.69 per share

- 2022-07: $73.31 per share

- 2022-08: $56.53 per share

- 2022-09: $47.75 per share

- 2022-10: $43.20 per share

- 2022-11: $50.56 per share

- 2022-12: $41.49 per share

- 2023-01: $54.12 per share

- 2023-02: $41.42 per share

- 2023-03: $38.39 per share

- 2023-04: $36.90 per share

- 2023-05: $34.50 per share

- 2023-06: $41.85 per share

- 2023-07: $46.51 per share

- 2023-08: $46.87 per share

- 2023-09: $39.18 per share

- 2023-10: $34.60 per share

- 2023-11: $32.38 per share

- 2023-12: $36.50 per share

- 2024-01: $38.38 per share

- 2024-02: $36.04 per share

- 2024-03: $36.28 per share

- 2024-04: $30.82 per share

- 2024-05: $30.63 per share

- 2024-06: $30.38 per share

- 2024-07: $38.14 per share

- 2024-08: $37.21 per share

- 2024-09: $37.84 per share

- 2024-10: $36.03 per share

- 2024-11: $32.74 per share

- 2024-12: $32.71 per share

- 2025-01: $35.70 per share

- 2025-02: $31.71 per share

- 2025-03: $31.20 per share

- 2025-04: $29.66 per share

- 2025-05: $29.94 per share

- 2025-06: $30.89 per share

- 2025-07: $34.27 per share

- 2025-08: $37.34 per share

- 2025-09: $35.32 per share

- 2025-10: $32.34 per share

- 2025-11: $33.31 per share

- 2025-12: $32.29 per share

- 2026-01: $31.15 per share

- 2026-02: $31.60 per share

- 2026-03: $30.71 per share

- 2026-04: $37.42 per share

- 2026-05: $36.13 per share

- 2026-06: $38.05 per share

- 2026-07: $39.41 per share

- 2026-08: $40.65 per share

- 2026-09: $40.15 per share

- 2026-10: $44.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $51.38 per share, central $56.13 per share, high $62.46 per share

- FY2017: low $62.71 per share, central $68.81 per share, high $76.95 per share

- FY2018: low $35.73 per share, central $39.13 per share, high $43.67 per share

- FY2019: low $13.72 per share, central $15.32 per share, high $17.46 per share

- FY2020: low $13.38 per share, central $14.85 per share, high $16.81 per share

- FY2021: low $13.70 per share, central $15.24 per share, high $17.30 per share

- FY2022: low $18.51 per share, central $20.82 per share, high $23.89 per share

- FY2023: low $20.53 per share, central $22.98 per share, high $26.25 per share

- FY2024: low $22.57 per share, central $25.24 per share, high $28.79 per share

- FY2025: low $28.21 per share, central $31.60 per share, high $36.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000025/mtch-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.